Quick Scout: This KU Jayhawk has the best matchup vs. Texas Longhorns’ distinct style
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Tuesday’s game: No. 17 Kansas at No. 14 Texas, 8 p.m., Frank Erwin Center, Austin, Texas
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 13-6
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 21
Point spread: Texas by 2 1/2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Rebounding ... both ends: Texas has been excellent on the offensive glass all season, and in Big 12 play, it has improved greatly on the defensive boards as well while posting the best defensive rebounding percentage in the conference.
• Three-point prevention: The Longhorns do not like to help off perimeter shooters, which limits threes but also puts more pressure on their own defenders to stay in front of their men on drive attempts.
• Three-point shooting: Texas has shot the highest volume of threes in Big 12 play while making 36% — an impressive number considering how many attempts it has.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Allowing shots at the rim: This is the downside of not giving much help; 38% of field goals against Texas’ defense are at the rim (240th nationally), and the Longhorns also foul much more often than an average team.
• Carelessness: The Longhorns will give it away some, ranking 185th in offensive turnover percentage with many of those coming from ball-handlers in pick-and-roll and isolation situations.
• Creating havoc: Texas plays mostly passive defensively, ranking 261st in defensive turnover percentage; that number also has declined since the start of conference season.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-2 guard Matt Coleman (No. 2)
Plus: 38% three-point shooter
Plus: Team’s best passer
Plus: Excellent finisher at the rim in transition
Plus: Above-average shooter in mid-range
Plus: Has 83% free throw accuracy
Minus: Only a role player offensively despite his strong efficiency numbers
Minus: Doesn’t draw contact or get to the free throw line often
Minus: Synergy’s logs rate him as “average” overall defender
PREDICTION
Texas certainly had some fortune on its side in a 25-point blowout win over KU in early January, with the three-point shooting numbers for both teams basically making up for the entire difference in the result.
In actuality ... these two programs are pretty equal at this stage in the season, with Texas’ couple-point advantage in Vegas mostly reflecting that it is playing this game in Austin.
It could be a tough matchup for KU in this way: Texas often turns opponents into drivers. One of the best ways to score against the Longhorns is to take your man one-on-one, getting to the lane where — if you have the court spaced properly — you can get shots at the rim. That also can lead to Texas fouls and subsequent free throws.
The Jayhawks, though, don’t have a roster filled with those types of players. Marcus Garrett is probably the best, but he obviously doesn’t have the same burst as guys like Tyshawn Taylor and Devon Dotson while also showing himself to be particularly turnover prone as of late. Maybe Bryce Thompson can emerge in this game as someone who can play to that advantage more than he has thus far.
KU still should have a chance at continuing its recent low-turnover ways against Texas, however, and it also has the option of throwing it inside to see what results out of that. The Jayhawks probably won’t get a high volume of threes, but shooting better than 3 of 23 — that’s what they were in the first Longhorns’ contest — certainly could help in the margins.
Texas, meanwhile, will look to exploit KU’s new defensive tendencies with plenty of pick-and-roll actions, hoping to confuse the Jayhawks to create both easy baskets for cutters and open threes for guards.
KU has covered the spread in five straight contests, and overall, I like the Jayhawks to get a sixth here. Look for the Jayhawks defense to some force turnovers and for the Longhorns to experience a much more average shooting night than they did the first time around.
Add that to even just an OK performance from KU offensively, and I think it could be enough for the Jayhawks to pull off the mini-upset.
Kansas 68, Texas 65
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
HAWK TO ROCK
David McCormack needs to go strong to the rim when he gets it because Texas should foul him often, and any time KU can get two free throws from the 82% free throw shooter, it will be a huge win for the Jayhawks. McCormack had eight free throw attempts in the first matchup against the Longhorns — his second-highest mark of the season — and because of the Longhorns’ overall defensive style, they won’t likely send double-teams his way. KU’s big man appears to be in for a big offensive night if he can stay out of foul trouble himself.
Last game prediction: Texas Tech 70, Kansas 66 (Actual: KU 67-61) ❌
2020-21 record vs. spread: 10-13
Last seven seasons’ record vs. spread: 129-100-3
This story was originally published February 23, 2021 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Quick Scout: This KU Jayhawk has the best matchup vs. Texas Longhorns’ distinct style."
