How the KU Jayhawks could soon improve by 4 points a game ... without even trying

Kansas men’s basketball coach Bill Self — for good reason — has vowed to mix things up this week as his team searches for an identity following its third straight loss on Saturday.

Self, after KU’s road defeat against Oklahoma, was right in his assertion that the Jayhawks are “good” but not “great” right now; his team, specifically, needs to find some long-term answers on the offensive end.

Here’s the good news for Self, though: A quick study of the numbers shows that KU is in line for some immediate improvement on the defensive end.

So what do the Jayhawks have to do to get there?

The answer is more straightforward than you think: Simply play more games, and wait for variance to swing the other way.

Since 2021 began — that’s six games for KU — the Jayhawks have been among the unluckiest teams in college basketball when it comes to three-point defense.

Here’s a closer look. From Jan. 1 to Jan. 25, KU’s opponents have made 41% of their threes. That ranks 311th nationally, and also is 10th-worst among all high-major schools, according to the filters at BartTorvik.com.

So let’s talk about what you’re all thinking right now: “This number is KU’s fault! The Jayhawks have allowed too many open threes, which is the reason that opponents are shooting so well!”

While this might seem logical on its face, previous studies and data say this isn’t the truth.

Analyst Ken Pomeroy has done most of the heavy lifting on this topic. He’s found that while defenses have some control over whether opponents attempt threes or not, three-point accuracy is actually 83% determined by the offense, leaving little room for the defense to impact whether a shot goes in when it leaves the offensive player’s hand.

Pomeroy also has studied a similar spot to the KU conundrum we discussed above. He examined how each college basketball team’s three-point percentage defense in the first half of the conference season compared to its three-point defense in the second half.

The short summary of what he found: The two numbers had no relationship. If a team had a “bad” or “good” three-point defense in the first part of the league season, that had no impact on whether it had a “good” or “bad” three-point defense in the second half of that same year.

We can do research of our own to see if these studies from the early- to mid-2010s still hold up. Last season, for example, here’s a list of the 10 worst high-major three-point defenses from Jan. 1 through Jan. 25, 2020 ... and also a look at how those same teams’ three-point defenses fared from Jan. 26 through the rest of the season.

This all seems in line with Pomeroy’s previous findings. Each of the 10 defenses saw positive regression following their rough stretch, with an average three-point percentage improvement of five percentage points.

So how much has this luck factor hurt KU over the last six games? Some quick math can give us an estimate.

Average three-point accuracy for the last six Big 12 teams KU has faced during conference play is 35%. KU’s opponents, meanwhile, actually made 53 of 129.

If we substitute that 35% number instead, we’d have expected KU’s opponents to make 45 threes in the last six games instead of 53. That means the Jayhawks defense allowed roughly 24 points above expectation — or four points per game in the calendar year 2021 — simply because of a bit of bad fortune.

Don’t expect those numbers to last.

Is there room for KU to improve with its perimeter defense? Absolutely. The Jayhawks’ have allowed the third-highest volume of perimeter attempts in Big 12 play, so putting more emphasis on running teams off the three-point line is one controllable that KU could manage better.

The Jayhawks also have been sloppy with their help defense and transition sorting, which has led to more open attempts than Self would like.

Having said all that ... KU remains due for better numbers here. The results are the results, so shots that go down punish a team three points while shots that don’t are often zero, even if the defense does nothing different on those particular plays.

KU, so far, has some encouraging signs. Its two-point defense is best in Big 12 play, and that is something that defenses can control decently well. The Jayhawks have been solid on the defensive glass and also don’t foul often, which has left other teams reliant on three-pointers to score.

Those shots have gone down recently, which obviously is unfortunate for KU.

The silver lining still remains apparent: History is pretty clear about what should come next.

This story was originally published January 27, 2021 at 5:00 AM with the headline "How the KU Jayhawks could soon improve by 4 points a game ... without even trying."

Jesse Newell

The Kansas City Star

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Jesse Newell covered the Chiefs for The Star until August 2025. He won an EPPY for best sports blog and previously was named top beat writer in his circulation by AP’s Sports Editors. His interest in sports analytics comes from his math teacher father, who handed out rulers to Trick-or-Treaters each year.