How will KU home-court advantage change if Fieldhouse isn’t full? An expert weighs in
The potential of Allen Fieldhouse hosting college basketball games at less than capacity has even Kansas coach Bill Self wondering about potential ramifications.
“As far as access to fans, Allen Fieldhouse could probably be a good home court regardless (of how many are allowed in the building),” Self said Wednesday in an interview with Midco Sports Network. “It’d look weird playing in front of 3,500, 4,000 people. It’d look really weird. That may come to be true, but I’m hopeful it’s not.”
It’s still uncertain how many fans will be allowed during KU homes games this season. Athletic director Jeff Long spoke Wednesday about modeling to even have 100% capacity in 2020-21, while also preparing for less than that if safety measures call for it.
This all begs the question, though: How much would KU’s home court be impacted if we assumed only one-fourth capacity, as Self mentioned above? And how would other Big 12 teams be affected as well?
For help with potential answers, I contacted college basketball analyst Ken Pomeroy, who has studied home-court advantage in the sport extensively.
Let’s set some baselines first. In general, Pomeroy says home-court advantage for college basketball teams, on average, is worth 3.5 points, with that number tending to be lower for those in non-major conferences. Pomeroy also has certain matchups listed as “semi-home” — like the Sprint Center in Kansas City when KU plays there during non-conference games — and for those contests, Pomeroy gives a team half-credit for home court, which comes out to 1.75 points.
So the thought exercise begins there. If an average team’s full home court is worth 3.5 and a sorta-home is worth 1.75, where would a home game at non-capacity be placed on that spectrum?
Though Pomeroy is quick to point out how many variables are uncertain at this point, he believes if this scenario did play out, he’d likely begin on the conservative side.
“I might drop (home court) to, like, three or something for starters,” Pomeroy said. “And if we discover that there’s no home-court advantage, I suppose I could change it. But putting me on the spot to come up with a plan right now, that’s probably the way I’d approach it.”
That’s just in general, though. In reality, having fewer fans could impact some home teams more than others.
And KU certainly would appear to be a candidate for that group.
Findings from the 2011 book “Scorecasting” tend to remain mostly true in college basketball: one of the main sources of home-court advantage is referee bias, which comes about because of fans.
Other factors play in as well. Elevation — opposing teams can become fatigued when not accustomed to high altitude — can be a big factor at outlier locations, while Pomeroy suggests there is not-insignificant shooting data that shows college basketball home teams do shoot slightly better percentages at home compared to the road.
When Pomeroy extensively studied home-court advantage a few years ago, however, it only reiterated that officiating is a major component. In fact, Pomeroy found that home-foul advantage — the team’s foul difference at home relative to its foul difference on the road — is a great predictor of a team’s future home-court advantage.
There are other more minor components that involve officiating. Pomeroy tracks the difference in a team’s non-steal turnovers (think judgment calls like charges and violations that are more likely to go the home squad’s way) and block rate (shot-blockers are more likely to be aggressive when they can get away with more contact and aren’t worried about foul trouble), which also contribute to the overall HCA picture.
The biggest element of home-court advantage outside of elevation, though, is home-foul advantage. And not surprisingly — based on KU’s reputation — the Jayhawks rank well there, tied for 30th in Pomeroy’s standings for that measure.
From a quick glance at the leaders in that category, Pomeroy notes that the top teams appear to be loosely related by having strong attendance. In other words, the teams getting the biggest home-call benefits tend to be the ones that are packing the stands while making the most noise.
This potentially puts KU in a worse spot, if limited seating capacity happens, than some others. Take Colorado, for instance, which is scheduled to host the Jayhawks on Dec. 22. The Buffaloes rank No. 1 in Pomeroy’s home-court measure, while getting lots of help from their arena’s 5,400-foot elevation. Even if there aren’t as many spectators, we can be certain Colorado will not be giving up that part of its home-court edge.
Other Big 12 peers could be in the same position as KU, though. West Virginia is eighth in home-foul advantage, while Baylor is 15th. Texas Tech (16th) and Kansas State (28th) also rank ahead of KU on that list.
Pomeroy reiterates, though, that determining exact home-court advantages for team-specific arenas is a difficult task. One needs years and years of data to even start, and because of all the noise involved, he’s written “determining which team has the best home-court advantage is impossible with any degree of certainty. Even distinguishing between the tenth-best and 60th-best home-court advantage is on shaky ground.”
KU, with his numbers, ranks 45th in overall home-court advantage, getting a 3.8-point bump over its last 60 conference games. If we’re being safe, as Pomeroy advises, KU would be in the upper tier of college basketball teams when it comes to receiving a home-court lift.
So how much might that be impacted if there are fewer fans?
There are still some things we don’t know. Pomeroy suggests that even 4,000 people in Allen Fieldhouse perhaps could be configured to make it a hostile environment, especially if those fans were close to the court. The potential is there for some teams to play without fans altogether in their home gyms too, which obviously could give those who allow spectators some extra home benefit.
The bottom line, though, is that based off the past, it’s safe to assume KU’s raucous fans have contributed to the team’s home-court advantage. Even without a full house, the change doesn’t appear that it would be more than a point per game — but still is enough that it could make a difference, especially in the team’s most competitive contests.
This story was originally published June 5, 2020 at 5:00 AM with the headline "How will KU home-court advantage change if Fieldhouse isn’t full? An expert weighs in."
