Five bold predictions and game-by-game picks for KU’s football season
One of the longest honeymoon periods in college football history is about to wrap up for Kansas coach Les Miles.
The 65-year-old Miles, who was hired before last season ended in November, has gotten nine months of a freeroll at KU, being able to focus strictly on program rebuilding without the potential reputation hit that comes from losing games on the field.
Some of Miles’ accomplishments have been impressive in that time. Not only was he able to bring in a well-respected receivers coach and recruiter extraordinaire in Emmett Jones, but the coach has also solidified 25 commitments for the 2020 class, which includes four-star outside linebacker Brennon Scott.
Now comes the tough part.
Miles, with a shorthanded roster, will have to prove his coaching chops in a season where fan hopes have been built up following his arrival. The expectations will never be overwhelming at KU — the team hasn’t won more than three games in any season the last decade, after all — but for the progress to continue off the field, Miles will have to show some signs that the team can be competitive on Saturdays as well.
Here are five bold predictions for KU’s upcoming season and game-by-game picks.
1. The Jayhawks will average 200 rushing yards per game
Miles has kept secret what type of offense his team is going to run in 2019, but read between the lines, and it appears the Jayhawks are likely to opt for physical, run-heavy football. That was Miles’ preferred style during his heyday at LSU, and the Jayhawks seem to have the personnel (good running back depth, experienced offensive line) to make this possible in 2019. Getting to 200 yards per game isn’t easy, as KU’s only done it once since the turn of the century. After averaging 159 rushing yards per game last season, though, the Jayhawks could still take a significant jump in Miles’ first year, helped by the big-play ability of all-Big 12 first-team running back Pooka Williams.
2. KU’s overall points per game will decrease
Quietly, KU broke a string of eight straight seasons in 2018 where it had failed to average more than 20 points per game. The Jayhawks, in a three-win season, made it up to 24 last year, as a positive turnover margin along with the aforementioned Williams giving the team an extra boost. Even though that number is a bit of a low bar in the pass-happy Big 12, it seems natural for KU’s offense to take a step back here with a new coaching staff and likely a slower-pace style. Add in that turnovers, through research, appear to be more luck than skill on a yearly basis, and taking the under on 24 seems like an even wiser play.
3. Manny Miles will throw a touchdown ... on special teams
Les Miles has earned the title of “Mad Hatter” partly because of his crazy play-calling, and never has he had a better opportunity to do wonky things on special teams than this season. That’s because Manny Miles — the coach’s son and a graduate transfer quarterback from North Carolina — is likely to be KU’s full-time holder. “He can hold, and he can throw and he can think,” Les said of Manny at Big 12 media days. “So there’s going to be some fun for Manny at some point in time.” Most likely translation: Fake field goals are coming to KU football, and Manny, at some point, will surely catch an opponent off guard with trickery.
4. Newcomer Andrew Parchment will lead KU in receiving yards
The safe play here would be Daylon Charlot, an Alabama transfer who is a breakout candidate in his own right while entering his third year with the program. Charlot has battled injuries throughout his career, though, meaning his production is no sure thing. Juco transfer Andrew Parchment — at 6-2 and 180 pounds — has constantly been mentioned by teammates as a standout in recent weeks, and the opportunity should be there for him to get plenty of snaps at a position group that lacks experienced options. Don’t be surprised if he becomes the Jayhawks’ top receiver by year’s end.
5. Davon Ferguson will lead the team in interceptions
The strength of KU’s defense in undoubtedly the secondary, with many familiar names returning like Mike Lee, Hasan Defense, Bryce Torneden and Corione Harris. Ferguson, though, could potentially be among the best in the group after a redshirt season in 2018 when he only played four games. The sophomore juco transfer had the top highlight of the spring game, intercepting Thomas MacVittie before returning it 73 yards for a touchdown. The expectation is that he’ll start from Game 1 for the Jayhawks, and even with talented players around him, it shouldn’t be surprising if he emerges as one of the team’s most productive defenders.
Game-by-game predictions
Aug. 31 vs. Indiana State (11 a.m. on Fox Sports KC): This is a scary opener for KU — Indiana State is ranked 16th in the FCS preseason coaches poll, while early betting lines only have the Jayhawks as a 3.5- to 4-point favorite. KU has been shaky in these types of openers recently too, losing two of the last four to the lower division, including coach David Beaty’s first game in 2015. Having said all that ... this is a matchup KU should win at home, and I see the Jayhawks pulling away. KU 31, Indiana State 21.
Sept. 7 vs. Coastal Carolina (6 p.m. on ESPN+): KU should also be a slight favorite in this one, with Pooka Williams returning from his one-game suspension as well. These two programs are closer than most would believe, though, so it’s not hard to envision a coin-flip game going the Chanticleers’ way. Coastal Carolina 27, KU 24.
Sept. 13 at Boston College (6:30 p.m. on ACC Network): The schedule gets much tougher from here. KU could be double-digit underdogs in every game the rest of the way, and that includes this Friday night contest against the Eagles. Boston College 38, KU 14
Sept. 21 vs. West Virginia (Time and TV TBA): If you’re a KU fan looking for a Big 12 upset, it’s probably best to look to games against other programs with a coaching change, as sometimes first years can be difficult to navigate. West Virginia, though, returns enough talent that it received some votes in the preseason Associated Press poll. That should give new coach Neal Brown some cushion. West Virginia 42, KU 24
Sept. 28 at TCU (Time and TV TBA): KU, for whatever reason, often seems to keep things close with TCU, and last year the Jayhawks even pulled of their biggest upset with a 27-26 home victory over the Horned Frogs. On paper, this is still a huge mismatch, and the last time KU went to Fort Worth, its offense set new NCAA marks for offensive futility. TCU 35, KU 6.
Oct. 5 vs. Oklahoma (Time and TV TBA): This will be the day after KU’s Late Night in the Phog. The KU-Oklahoma men’s basketball tilts figure to be more competitive than this one. Oklahoma 52, KU 10.
Oct. 19 at Texas (Time and TV TBA): The computer projections don’t love Texas as much as the humans do (10th in the preseason AP poll). In any case, the Jayhawks would do well to stay within a couple scores here. Texas 35, KU 24.
Oct. 26 vs. Texas Tech (Time and TV TBA): Will KU be favored against Texas Tech? No. Still, if you’re of the belief that the Jayhawks will sneak up and surprise at least one conference opponent, this seems as likely of an opportunity as any. KU 34, Texas Tech 31.
Nov. 2 vs. Kansas State (Time and TV TBA): Chris Klieman inherited a better roster in his first year than Miles did. KU being at home helps, but not enough for a win against its biggest rival. K-State 28, KU 17.
Nov. 16 at Oklahoma State (Time and TV TBA): Whenever I think of KU playing in Stillwater, Oklahoma, I can’t help but remember the 2011 season, when the Cowboys led the Jayhawks, 56-7, at halftime on their way to an eventual 70-28 rout. Miles should at least be able to put up a better showing than that against his former school. Oklahoma State 45, KU 20.
Nov. 23 at Iowa State (Time and TV TBA): Let’s hope this game is warmer than the one the two teams played six years to the day earlier. That contest — a 34-0 Iowa State victory — was the coldest contest in Jack Trice Stadium’s history with a temperature that dropped to 3 degrees after halftime. Iowa State 34, KU 16.
Nov. 30 vs. Baylor (Time and TV TBA): This seemed like a more winnable game two years ago. Baylor’s Matt Rhule, though, seems to have the Bears headed in the right direction after the team improved from 1-11 in his first year to 7-6 last season. Baylor 35, KU 17.
Final Record: 2-10 (1-8 Big 12).
This story was originally published August 26, 2019 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Five bold predictions and game-by-game picks for KU’s football season."
