Quick scout: Why K-State is a tough team for the computers to figure out
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Monday’s game: Kansas vs. Kansas State, 8 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 21-6
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 25
Point spread: KU by 3 1/2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Creating havoc: Kansas State is second in Big 12 play in defensive turnover percentage (behind only Texas Tech) and also first in steal rate during that time.
▪ Transition defense: The Wildcats rank 11th nationally when it comes to limiting opponents’ fast-break opportunities.
▪ Defensive rebounding: This strength has slipped some since conference play started, but K-State still ranks 34th in defensive rebounding rate, faring much better in this area when forward Dean Wade is playing.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Shot selection: K-State doesn’t get many shots at the rim and also attempts the 42nd-highest percentage of mid-range jumpers.
▪ Three-point defense: Much like KU, K-State’s defensive style is to protect the interior at the expense of allowing perimeter shots; because of that, 44 percent of opponents’ field goals have been from three-point range.
▪ Free throws: The Wildcats get to the line less than an average team, while also ranking 315th in free-throw percentage.
3 Players to Watch
6-foot-3 guard Barry Brown (No. 5)
Plus: Fourth in KenPom’s Big 12 player of the year ranking
Plus: Team’s most aggressive offensive player
Plus: Synergy’s logs rate him as “excellent” overall defender
Plus: Great finisher at the rim for his size
Minus: Will attempt threes, but is below-average shooter there
Minus: Frequent mid-range shots hurt his individual efficiency
6-foot-10 forward Dean Wade (No. 32)
Plus: Super-efficient offensive player
Plus: Has three-point shooting range
Plus: 79-percent free-throw shooter
Plus: Great passer for his size
Minus: Not as aggressive as he should be offensively
Minus: Synergy ranks him as one of the weakest defenders in K-State’s rotation
6-foot-5 forward Xavier Sneed (No. 20)
Plus: Good three-point shooter
Plus: Rarely turns it over
Plus: Thrives on defensive glass
Plus: Rated as “excellent” overall defender by Synergy
Minus: Poor finisher at the rim and in transition
Minus: Only a 66-percent free-throw shooter
Prediction
Pegging the quality of this Kansas State team can be tricky.
Predictive metrics like KenPom don’t love the Wildcats, yet there’s an easy explanation for that: injuries. K-State obviously took a huge step back earlier in the season when Wade was out, and it’s not illogical to think the team might be a point or two better than what those numbers expect simply because he’s returned to the lineup.
It appears the line has moved somewhat in that direction. Both KenPom and Bart Torvik’s numbers have KU projected to win by four, while the Vegas spread, as listed above, is KU by 3 1/2.
I still think there are reasons to like KU by more than that.
For one, K-State’s defense relies heavily on turnovers, and that style won’t play as well at Allen Fieldhouse as it did at Bramlage. The whistle will be tighter for K-State, and I can’t see a scenario where KU turns it over 30-plus percent of the time like it did in the first game.
The other key for the Jayhawks will be three-point shooting. The Wildcats will give up those looks, and KU has been hot recently at the Fieldhouse, making 43 percent of its threes in the last five home games combined.
KU’s loss at Texas Tech was ugly, and there has to be some worry for coach Bill Self that his team could still be fatigued with a short turnaround following Saturday’s late-night game.
This still seems to me like a contest where the Jayhawks, fueled by a crazy atmosphere, turn up the defensive intensity and fire away with more confidence.
I could see them pulling away if that’s how it plays out.
Kansas 73, Kansas State 65
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
Hawk to Rock
Let’s go bold. Self needs three-point threats against K-State, and choosing to go shooter-heavy could make sense against the Wildcats’ elite half-court defense. Charlie Moore made 3 of 7 threes against Texas Tech, and he hasn’t been hesitant to shoot from the outside this season, even through early struggles. Though Moore has only hit double figures in one game this season (18 vs. South Dakota), I’ll say a strong shooting night gets him to at least 10 here.
Last game prediction: Texas Tech 71, Kansas 60 (Actual: Texas Tech 91-62)
2018-19 record vs. spread: 16-11
Last five seasons’ record vs. spread: 93-73-3
This story was originally published February 25, 2019 at 7:00 AM with the headline "Quick scout: Why K-State is a tough team for the computers to figure out."
