Kansas State breakdown: strong start a must for strong season

Kansas State’s upcoming football season might as well be divided into three segments.

The opening three games are essentially a warmup. The Wildcats start with games they will be favored to win against South Dakota, Texas-San Antonio and Louisiana Tech. As long as they take care of business, they will be 3-0.

Then comes the true test, a grueling five-game stretch that will rank among the nation’s toughest – at Oklahoma State, TCU, Oklahoma, at Texas and Baylor. That’s two national-title contenders and a traditional powerhouse at home on top of two difficult road trips. The Wildcats may not be favored a single time. If they are eligible for a bowl after eight games, Bill Snyder deserves a raise.

If they aren’t, they can look to the home stretch hopeful of a strong finish. K-State’s final four games — at Texas Tech, Iowa State, at Kansas and West Virginia – are much more manageable. The Wildcats have won at least four straight against all four opponents.

Most oddsmakers have assigned K-State with an over/under victory total of seven.

If you think the Wildcats will exceed expectations, that means you likely expect them to run the table at the beginning and end of the season and pick up at least one victory in the middle. The way Snyder’s teams perform at home, as many as nine wins – or 10, if everything falls into place – is a possibility.

If you think they will fail to meet expectations, that likely means you think they will stub their toe against an equal or lesser opponent, and lose to every favored opponent. That scenario is possible, too. UTSA and Kansas are road games, Louisiana Tech is no cupcake, Texas Tech is loaded with returning talent and West Virginia could surprise. There are no guarantees.

Given all the question marks surrounding K-State, especially on offense, there is no sure-fire way to lean.

The defense should be solid, if not spectacular, behind a veteran secondary and proven defensive tackles that can stop the run. That should give K-State a chance every week. Can Snyder get enough out of his offense to win the tough games?

The trajectory of the season may well depend on Jesse Ertz. All signs point to the sophomore starting the opener at quarterback, but can he maintain a stranglehold on the job all season? He is a gifted passer and capable runner, but he has little experience. After winning the starting job in the spring, he responded by throwing an interception, which was returned for a touchdown, on the first play of the spring game.

He needs to perform better against South Dakota. Leaving the door open for Jonathan Banks, Alex Delton and Joe Hubener, all dual-threat athletes, will make it harder for the offense to move forward.

Making matters more complicated for the offense is an unproven group of receivers trying to replace Tyler Lockett and Curry Sexton. And the running game, even with four returning offensive linemen, remains an unknown.

The more quickly one quarterback takes command, the better off K-State will be. The Wildcats need to establish an offensive idendity early on and run with it.

Two seasons ago, the Wildcats went back and forth between Jake Waters and Daniel Sams until late in the season when Waters came into his own. They won six of their final seven, and set the table for nine wins the following year. But they started 2-4, unsure whether to lean on the run or the pass.

This group will likely lean on the run and use it to open up the pass. If K-State figures out a way to do that during its warm-up segment – the first three games – it could make some noise during the truly difficult games. If not, pressure will be on it to close strong.

This story was originally published August 27, 2015 at 3:00 AM with the headline "Kansas State breakdown: strong start a must for strong season."