College football odds, expert picks for Kansas, K-State, Mizzou and Big 12 in Week 12
All three of our “local” college football teams are in action this weekend.
It’s been a while since we saw Kansas, Kansas State and Missouri play on the same day. Let’s hope that means we are in store for a fun Saturday as we search for winners.
Kansas (+3.5) at BYU
The Jayhawks have looked like a different team since their first idle week of the season.
Kansas has shaken off a 1-5 start and is now playing like the top 25 team many expected it to be in the preseason. A 42-14 win over Houston has aged well. There is no shame in losing 29-27 at Kansas State. And nobody has beaten Iowa State worse than KU did last week 45-36.
Can the Jayhawks keep their good vibes rolling in a difficult road game against BYU? Possibly. Even though the Cougars are hard to beat at LaVell Edwards Stadium, especially at night, this is a good spot for the Jayhawks. They are riding a positive wave of momentum and the Cougars are coming off an emotional win against Utah.
The biggest challenge for KU will be finding a way to beat an opponent that is 4-0 in games decided by one score this season. Lance Leipold’s team is 0-5 in those games.
Missouri (+12.5) at South Carolina
The Tigers came from behind to beat Oklahoma without Brady Cook last week, but things are about to get tougher for Eli Drinkwitz’s team.
Few teams in the country are playing better than South Carolina at the moment. The Gamecocks have won their past three games against Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt by a combined total of 71 points.
Arizona State (+7.5) at Kansas State
This is a game that could affect the Big 12 championship race, as both teams enter the weekend at 7-2.
It should also be a showcase of outstanding running backs with Cam Skattebo going head-to-head against DJ Giddens.
That feels like a good combination for the Wildcats. They will give this game their full attention, especially coming off a loss two weeks ago against Houston. K-State has played well against run-first teams all season. Arizona State doesn’t have the passing attack to give K-State problems in the secondary.
It’s also worth nothing that K-State is about to play back-to-back games at home for the first time in more than a calendar year. The last time the Wildcats enjoyed a home stand they won easily 41-3 against TCU and 41-0 against Houston.
My favorite bets
Baylor (-2.5) at West Virginia: If you read our Big 12 Power Rankings, then you know I am higher than most on Baylor. I am also not buying West Virginia’s resurgence after wins against Arizona and Cincinnati. The Bears dropped 59 points on Texas Tech after their first idle weak of the season. I think they roll again in Morgantown. Pick: Baylor.
Missouri (+12.5) at South Carolina: The Tigers have played two SEC road games this year and lost both in blowout fashion, 41-10 at Texas A&M and 34-0 at Alabama. I don’t see things going any better for them on the road against the Gamecocks. Pick: South Carolina.
Utah (+10.5) at Colorado: There is a good chance the Utes have quit on the season after they way they lost to BYU last week. The Buffaloes have won three straight games by double digits. I expect that trend to continue on Saturday. Pick: Colorado.
Kansas (+3.5) at BYU: The Jayhawks have quietly covered the spread in three straight games, and they won two of them outright against solid competition. They are playing well enough to throw a scare into BYU. Pick: Kansas.
Arizona State (+7.5) at K-State: This feels like a get-right game for the Wildcats. They should be able to limit Arizona State’s rushing attack, even though Cam Skattebo is expected to play. The Sun Devils haven’t won a Big 12 road game all season. I don’t see their luck changing at Bill Snyder Family Stadium against a team that is coming off a loss and a bye week. Pick: K-State.
Last Week: 1-4
Season: 32-23 (+7 units)
Upset pick of the week
Houston (+120) at Arizona: The Wildcats have been one of my favorite teams to fade this season, so I’m eager to go back to the well now that they are small favorites against the Cougars. Willie Fritz has already guided Houston to Big 12 victories against TCU, Utah and K-State. Arizona has lost five games in a row and it has looked very bad while doing so. Fritz is a much better coach than Brent Brennan. The wrong team is favored here. Pick: Houston.
Season: 3-8 (-2.9 units)
Other lines worth considering
Boston College (+19.5) at SMU: This feels like too many points. SMU is really good, but Boston College has covered this number in all but one game this season. Lean: Boston College.
Washington State (-12.5) at New Mexico: The Cougars probably can’t play their way into the playoff conversation, but a blowout victory over New Mexico won’t hurt their chances. Lean: Washington State.
New Mexico State (+39) at Texas A&M: Style points matter for a team like Texas A&M right now. It might not let up in this game. Lean: Texas A&M.
Cincinnati (+9.5) at Iowa State: The Bearcats couldn’t hang with Colorado or West Virginia. I won’t be surprised if the Cyclones fix some of their problems in this game. Lean: Iowa State.
UCLA (+4.5) at Washington: The Bruins have won three straight Big Ten games as underdogs. Why not make it four? Lean: UCLA.