College football odds and expert picks for KU at K-State, Mizzou and Big 12 in Week 9
.jpg "Kansas Jayhawks running back Devin Neal (4) runs the ball against Kansas State Wildcats linebacker Desmond Purnell (32) during the second half at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium on Nov. 18, 2023.")
Last week was extremely profitable for anyone who backed all three of our “local” college football teams.
For the first time since August, we saw Kansas, Kansas State and Missouri all win on the same day.
But here’s what made it a truly great Saturday for bettors: All three teams covered the spread as favorites.
Let’s see if we can keep finding winners and celebrate right along with the Jayhawks, Wildcats and Tigers this weekend.
Kansas (+10.5) at K-State
This seems like too many points for a Sunflower Showdown rivalry that has become competitive in recent years.
The days of Kansas State winning this game simply by showing up are over.
Kansas is getting K-State at an ideal time. The Jayhawks are coming off a bye and then a blowout win over Houston. The Wildcats are fresh off a pair of exhausting road trips to Colorado and West Virginia.
Still, it has been a while since the Jayhawks have played the Wildcats within two touchdowns at Bill Snyder Family Stadium. Kansas lost a heart-breaker to K-State last year 31-27, but that game was played in Lawrence. The Wildcats have beaten the Jayhawks 47-27 and 55-14 during their past two home games in this rivalry.
If you read this column every week, you know K-State is not a good team to back as a road favorite. But it’s a different story at home. Chris Klieman’s squad is 8-2 against the spread as a home favorite over the past two seasons.
My hunch is that KU will put everything it has into this game and keep the final score within a touchdown. But that bet is not without risk. If a few things go against the Jayhawks this game could turn into a lopsided affair.
Missouri (+13.5) at Alabama
Road underdogs have been a good bet in SEC play all season. But this will be a difficult number for the Tigers to cover.
Alabama hasn’t looked right ever since it defeated Georgia 41-34 at the end of September. The Crimson Tide followed that game up with a loss to Vanderbilt, a narrow win over South Carolina and then another loss to Tennessee.
What is going on in Tuscaloosa?
Maybe the Crimson Tide will put everything together this week and get right against Missouri. Or maybe the Tigers can be the latest team to throw a scare into Alabama. Problem is, Missouri lost its first SEC road game 41-10 at Texas A&M.
I am more confident in Alabama than Missouri, but this is a tough one to predict.
My favorite bets
Rutgers (+13.5) at USC: The Trojans might be the unluckiest team in all of college football. They have lost four games this season by a combined total of 14 points. Their ugliest loss of the bunch came last week against Maryland when they had a chance to go up by two scores in the final minutes, but the Terrapins blocked a USC field goal and then scored a touchdown to win 29-28. Things should bounce Lincoln Riley’s way this week, though. USC has covered the spread in all three of its home games, including blowout wins over Utah State and Wisconsin. Pick: USC.
Nevada (pick ‘em) at Hawaii: The Wolf Pack have been a pleasant surprise in the Mountain West, as they have gone 5-2-1 against the spread this season with an outright win over Oregon State. Hawaii is on the opposite end of the spectrum, as the Rainbow Warriors haven’t covered a spread in more than a month. Pick: Nevada.
Notre Dame (-12.5) vs. Navy: The Midshipmen are one of the best stories in college football. Navy is undefeated on the season and 5-1 against the spread. Fading them has not been a profitable strategy. But it’s worth noting that Navy hasn’t played anyone nearly as good as Notre Dame. This will be a serious step up in difficulty. The Fighting Irish won this matchup 42-3 last season. Pick: Notre Dame.
BYU (+2.5) at UCF: I have seen this movie before. The last time BYU was deemed fortunate to win a home game (against K-State) the Cougars were an underdog the following week at Baylor. What happened? BYU raced to a 21-0 lead and won. We are looking at the exact same situation here. The Cougars are coming off a narrow win over Oklahoma State and bettors are lining up to fade them for no good reason. I won’t fall into the trap. Pick: BYU.
Texas Tech (+7) at TCU: The Red Raiders are my upset pick this week (more on that below), so I obviously like them to cover this spread. Pick: Texas Tech.
Last Week: 2-3
Season: 24-16 (+6.6 units)
Upset pick of the week
Texas Tech (+200) at TCU: Some are ready to hop off the Texas Tech bandwagon after the Red Raiders suffered a home blowout loss against Baylor. I can’t say I blame them, either. It was an ugly result. But Texas Tech is a volatile team. Remember, this group opened the season with a narrow win against Abilene Christian and a humiliating loss at Washington State. Then it won four in a row. One week you get Jekyll. The next week you get Hyde. I expect a better result against a TCU team that has too many flaws to be favored by a touchdown here. Pick: Texas Tech.
Season: 3-5 (+0.1 units)
Other lines worth considering
Washington (+6.5) at Indiana: All the Hoosiers do is win games and cover spreads. Lean: Indiana.
Texas (-18.5) at Vanderbilt: The Commodores have been giant killers this season. But I wonder how impressive their wins over Virginia Tech, Kentucky and Alabama truly are. Texas may be a different animal, especially with the Longhorns coming off a loss. Lean: Texas.
Oklahoma State (+7) at Baylor: The Cowboys showed signs of life last weekend against BYU. I trust the Cowboys to keep this game close. Lean: Oklahoma State.
SMU (-11.5) at Duke: Most gave up on the Mustangs when they suffered an early loss to BYU, but they are quietly building a case to make the College Football Playoff at 6-1. Lean: SMU.
Illinois (+21) at Oregon: Beating Michigan isn’t as hard as it used to be. I think the Fighting Illini are in a for a beatdown at Oregon. Lean: Oregon.
This story was originally published October 24, 2024 at 7:00 AM.