College football odds and expert picks for K-State, Kansas, Mizzou & Big 12 in Week 8

Another week, another 4-1 performance from yours truly.

That pushes our college football betting record to 22-13 against the spread this season, which is great. But we are still searching for our first 5-0 sweep.

Let’s see if we can keep finding winners and make it happen.

Kansas State (-3.5) at West Virginia

The Wildcats won a huge game against Colorado 31-28 last week, but they once again failed to cover the spread as a road favorite.

Unfortunately for K-State bettors, the line closed at 3.5.

K-State has failed to cover the spread as a road favorite in six straight games dating back to the 2022 season.

Maybe things will change this week. West Virginia seems like a good matchup for K-State, as it likes to run the ball and quarterback Garrett Greene is unlikely to challenge the Wildcats’ secondary like so many other passers have this season. But back-to-back road games is never easy in the Big 12.

K-State also has a rivalry game with KU up next. This could be another challenging game.

Auburn (+4.5) at Missouri

Some predictive models suggest that these teams are about equal, which means Eli Drinkwitz’s team is favored by 4.5 points almost entirely because it will have home-field advantage in this game.

Perhaps that is a sign that there is some value on Auburn in this matchup. Or maybe some experts and computers are underrating Missouri. This might be a good opportunity to back Auburn, because Missouri has looked far from stellar in its other SEC games. But Auburn hasn’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard, either.

Maybe the under (51 points) is worth a look.

Houston (+5.5) at Kansas

This line has moved all over the place. Kansas opened as an 8.5-point favorite. Then the betting line dipped below a touchdown. Then it went back up to seven. Now it has settled at 5.5. An element of mystery surrounds this game, because both teams are coming off a bye week. Will Lance Leipold make some radical changes? This game will also have a lot of meaning for Houston coach Willie Fritz, who grew up in the Kansas City area.

At first glance, Houston seems like a great underdog pick. Kansas hasn’t beaten a FBS team all season, despite several close calls. But if Kansas is going to bounce back, it will happen this weekend.

My favorite bets

Oklahoma State (+10) at BYU: Betting against BYU has not been a profitable strategy this season. Betting on Oklahoma State hasn’t been the best idea lately, either. But this is the time to buy the Cowboys.

So what if they looked dreadful in their last three games? They are coming off a bye week and I expect Mike Gundy to throw the proverbial kitchen sink at BYU on Friday. Don’t be surprised if the Cowboys use a new quarterback and call a ton of trick plays. Oklahoma State dominated K-State in this same situation as an 11.5-point underdog last season. Pick: Oklahoma State.

Colorado (+3.5) at Arizona: Deion Sanders has said that he expects Travis Hunter and Timmy Horn to return from injury and play in this game. If that’s true, the Buffaloes should be favored. It’s time people realize that Arizona has taken a big step backward from last season. Getting over a field goal with the Buffaloes in this situation is too good to pass up. Pick: Colorado.

Arizona State (+6.5) at Cincinnati: The betting line in this game jumped four points after the Sun Devils announced that starting quarterback Sam Leavitt would miss this game. That seems excessive when you consider that Arizona State relies almost exclusively on running back Cameron Skattebo to move the ball on offense. Besides, it’s not like they are turning to a freshman at QB.

Backup Jeff Sims has 32 games of experience between previous stops at Georgia Tech and Nebraska. The under (49.5) is also appealing. Pick: Arizona State.

TCU (+4) at Utah: I can’t imagine many people are lining up to bet on Utah after the Utes lost Cam Rising for the season at quarterback. But you’re welcome to join me on Utah island this week. I think gaining some clarity at quarterback could unite this team. And it’s not like TCU is any good. Its high-octane passing attack will be put to the test against a Utah defense that is only allowing 172 yards per game through the air. Pick: Utah.

UCF (+13.5) at Iowa State: We’re going with all Big 12 picks this week. Yahoo! It’s hard to see these teams getting into a shootout. The Knights have benched KJ Jefferson at quarterback and look lost on offense. They have scored exactly 13 points in their past two games. The Cyclones aren’t an offensive juggernaut, either, and should win this game with their defense. Pick: Under 49.5.

Last Week: 4-1

Season: 22-13 (+7.7 units)

Upset pick of the week

Houston (+200) at Kansas: What about this matchup suggests that the Jayhawks should be favored by nearly a touchdown? Houston (2-4, 1-2 Big 12) owns a better record than Kansas (1-5, 0-3 Big 12) and this game will be played on somewhat of a neutral field in Kansas City. There’s a chance that the Jayhawks look like a new team coming off of their bye week. If not, will anyone be surprised if the Cougars find a way to win this game in the final moments? Pick: Houston.

Season: 3-4 (+1.1 units)

Other lines worth considering

Texas A&M (-15.5) at Mississippi State: The Aggies looked great two weeks ago against Missouri. Now they are rested and going up against possibly the worst team in the SEC. They could easily win this game by three scores. Lean: Texas A&M.

Nebraska (+6.5) at Indiana: The Hoosiers have won and covered in their past six games. Nebraska doesn’t have enough offense to keep up with Indiana on the road. Lean: Indiana.

Rice (+21.5) at Tulane: The Green Wave have won their past two games by an average of 43 points and they had two weeks to prepare for this game. Good luck, Owls. Lean: Tulane.

Notre Dame (-12.5) at Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets can run the ball well enough to make this a close game. Lean: Georgia Tech.

USC (-7.5) at Maryland: The Trojans are in close games every week, and they haven’t won a Big Ten road game yet. Lean: Maryland.

This story was originally published October 17, 2024 at 8:00 AM.

Kellis Robinett

The Wichita Eagle

Kellis Robinett covers Kansas State athletics for The Wichita Eagle and The Kansas City Star. A winner of more than a dozen national writing awards, he lives in Manhattan with his wife and four children.