College football betting tips for KU, K-State, Mizzou and the biggest games in Week 3
Last week was a perfect example of the craziness that exists in college football.
Notre Dame looked like a mortal lock to reach the expanded playoff when the Fighting Irish opened the season with an impressive road win at Texas A&M. Now? Not so much. Some think they may have already played their way out of the playoff thanks to a shocking home loss to Northern Illinois.
Week 3 could be even crazier, especially in these parts with Kansas, K-State and Missouri all playing undefeated teams at home.
UNLV (+7) at Kansas
Most fans expected the Jayhawks to suffer a drop off on offense when Penn State poached coordinator Andy Kotelnicki and Lance Leipold replaced him with Jeff Grimes. But few saw Kansas also downgrading at quarterback with Jalon Daniels taking over for Jason Bean. Remember, Daniels was the QB1 for KU until he suffered a season-ending injury last season. But KU sorely missed Bean during a 23-17 loss at Illinois in which Daniels tossed three interceptions, including a pick-six.
If KU has truly taken a step back on offense, this could be a tricky game for the Jayhawks. The Rebels have a high-octane offense. And they have already beaten a Big 12 team this season, 27-7 at Houston.
Kansas whipped UNLV 49-36 at the Guaranteed Rate Bowl last year, but that was with Bean in control of the offense.
Boston College (+16.5) at Missouri
It’s time to find out what kind of football team Missouri truly is. We know the Tigers are good. But are they elite? Mizzou opened the year with lopsided victories over Murray State and Buffalo. Both wins came via shutout. Things might not be so easy against an opponent like Boston College, which is ranked in the top 25 after a 2-0 start.
With that in mind, this feels like a big spread for the Tigers to try and cover. It’s hard to beat power-conference teams by any amount, let alone 17.
Arizona (+7.5) at Kansas State
This could be one of the best games of the week. Arizona has two of the best offensive players in the country with quarterback Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan leading a high-octane attack. They could be in for a big day against a K-State defense that just surrendered 342 passing yards against Tulane.
But K-State is never easy to beat at home, and you know Chris Klieman will make some defensive adjustments heading into this game.
One interesting quirk about this game, from a gambling perspective: Both of these teams are 0-2 against the spread this season.
My favorite bets
UTSA (+34.5) at Texas: Let’s not overthink this one. UTSA is coming off a 49-10 loss to Texas State. Do we really expect things to go better for the Road Runners this week when they hit the road again for a game against the Texas Longhorns? Pick: Texas.
Colorado (-8.5) at Colorado State: The Buffaloes are a terrible team to bet on as a favorite. They can’t run the ball and their defense is mediocre. No lead is safe for Coach Prime. The Rams played Colorado tough on the road last season. I expect them to do the same at home this year. Pick: Colorado State.
UCF (-2.5) at TCU: The wrong team is favored here. The Golden Knights are hard to beat at home, but things change when they have to go on the road. Last season, UCF went 1-4 in conference road games, with the only win coming by two points at Cincinnati. TCU has looked better than advertised in its two wins. I like the Horned Frogs at home. Pick: TCU.
Coastal Carolina (-17.5) at Temple: The Owls might be the worst team in all of the FBS. Coastal Carolina has covered this number in both of its wins, while Temple has been blown out in both of its losses. Those trends could easily continue. Pick: Coastal Carolina.
Boston College (+16.5) at Missouri: This is too many points. Yes, the Tigers looked outstanding in their first two games, but another shutout victory might be hard to come by now that Boston College is coming to town instead of Murray State and Buffalo. Pick: BC.
Last Week: 1-4
Season: 4-6
Upset pick of the week
Memphis (+200) at Florida State: Are the Seminoles any good? The answer could easily be no after they started off the season with a pair of uninspiring losses against Georgia Tech and Boston College. There’s a chance Florida State can turn things around after not playing last week. But Memphis is poised to pull off an upset if no improvement takes place in Tallahassee. Pick: Memphis.
Last Week: 0-1
Season: 1-1
Other lines worth considering
New Mexico State (+19.5) at Fresno State: One of the best teams from outside the power conferences is hosting one of the worst teams from outside the power conferences, and the spread is below three touchdowns. Lean: Fresno State.
Alabama (-16) at Wisconsin: This will feel like the Super Bowl in Madison. A charged home atmosphere could help the Badgers keep this game competitive. Lean: Wisconsin.
Nevada (+17.5) at Minnesota: The Wolf Pack are 3-0 against the spread this season. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Lean: Nevada.
Troy (+22.5) at Iowa: I’m not sure how many points the Hawkeyes can score on any given Saturday. But you can usually count on them to play ferocious defense. With that in mind, I could easily see Troy losing by a shut out. Lean: Troy under 7.5 team points.
North Texas (+9.5) at Texas Tech: The Red Raiders barely beat Abilene Christian in their first game of the season. Next, they got run off the field by Washington State. Seems like a good team to fade. Lean: North Texas.