K-State Wildcats vs Texas Longhorns: Score prediction, game preview, odds and TV info
The Kansas State football team will try to move past Texas in the Big 12 standings and improve its chances of reaching the conference championship game when it plays the Longhorns on Saturday inside Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium.
Here’s everything you need to know before kickoff ...
Kansas State at Texas game details
Kickoff: 11 a.m. Saturday
Where: Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium (Austin)
TV: FOX
Radio: KCSP (610 AM) in Kansas City, KFH (1240 AM and 97.5 FM) in Wichita
The line: Texas by 4 with an O/U of 49.5
Game prediction
This game should boil down to one simple thing.
The team that is able to establish a consistent rushing attack is probably going to win.
Will that team be Texas? Maybe. The Longhorns rank 34th nationally in rushing yards, with running back Jonathan Brooks leading the way. He has 923 yards and seven touchdowns this season.
Texas will no doubt look to lean on its running game without starting quarterback Quinn Ewers, who is expected to miss this game with a shoulder injury. Backup Maalik Murphy has done enough to help the Longhorns beat Houston and BYU over the past two weeks, but he has not looked sharp as a passer.
Last week, he made awful decisions when BYU got pressure on him and Texas coaches mostly asked him to throw short passes or hand the ball off. Thing is, that strategy still worked well enough for the Longhorns to score 35 points with three different players recording a run of at least 23 yards.
It will be interesting to see if K-State can limit those explosive plays. Its defense is only allowing 3.7 yards per rush. It is equipped to slow down the Longhorns on the ground and dare Murphy to beat the Wildcats with his arm.
But some of their defensive success came early in the season when they were playing teams that weren’t nearly as talented as Texas. Since then, Oklahoma State and TCU both produced a 100-yard rusher against them. And Texas Tech had a running back go for 98 against them.
On the flip side, will K-State be able to run on Texas? Possibly. The Wildcats have amassed 794 rushing yards over the past three weeks to go along with nine rushing touchdowns. They have been destroying teams on the ground of late behind DJ Giddens, Treshaun Ward, Avery Johnson and a physical offensive line.
But Texas leads the Big 12 in rushing defense, as the Longhorns are only allowing 3.24 yards per rush. Things might not be so easy for K-State on the ground this week.
Again, if one team can establish a rushing attack and the other can’t then it’s game over.
But what if things turn out even in that category? Without knowing which team will be able to run the ball more successfully than the other, let’s assume this game comes down to which quarterback can make more plays with his arm.
That scenario would likely favor Will Howard, a veteran passer who won a Big 12 championship last season and has found his groove over the past two weeks. Murphy seems like a substantial down grade from Ewers.
Another factor in this game could be red-zone efficiency.
The Longhorns have settled for far too many field goals in that area this season and rank 101st nationally. Meanwhile, the Wildcats excel in both offense and defense when they are in the red zone.
With Ewers, I would absolutely pick Texas in this spot. Without him, the Wildcats seem to have a slight edge, even as a road underdog.
I’m picking the Wildcats to win a low-scoring game in Austin.
K-State 24, Texas 23
Last week’s prediction: K-State 35, Houston 24 (Actual: K-State 41, Houston 0)
Season record: 5-3.
Season record against the spread: 3-5.
Season record O/U: 6-2.
This story was originally published November 3, 2023 at 10:29 AM.