K-State Q&A: How far can Keyontae Johnson, Markquis Nowell take Wildcats in March?
Please allow me to begin this week’s K-State Q&A by posing a question of my own.
How many games do the Wildcats need to win in the NCAA Tournament for this season to be considered a success? I admit that is a trick question, of sorts. No one expected Jerome Tang to lead this team to 23 victories or a No. 3 seed in March Madness. K-State has exceeded expectations.
Overall, this season will be remembered fondly no matter what happens this March. But no one likes an early exit from the Big Dance. What will it take to make the vast majority of fans happy?
Reaching the Sweet 16 seems like the answer.
That would give the Wildcats 25 victories and a trip to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2018. That would make it one of the best seasons in recent memory. That would make a good season truly special. I don’t see any reasonable fan complaining about that.
Anything more than the Sweet 16 would be incredible and cement the legacies of Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell in Manhattan. Anything less would probably leave mixed feelings.
I can see most fans being content with an appearance in the Round of 32. K-State has only advanced beyond the first round one time in the last decade so even winning one game in the NCAA Tournament would be notable for this program.
A loss to Montana State would be disappointing, though. Not so much that it would take away from a fabulous regular season, but it would leave just everyone wanting more.
Fortunately, we don’t have to wait much longer to find out what happens. K-State is six wins away from a national championship and one loss away from its season being over. It’s the best time of year for college basketball fans.
Now, let’s dive into your questions about K-State and the NCAA Tournament. Thanks, as always, for providing them.
I am tempted to pick Markquis Nowell or Keyontae Johnson, because if one of them is scoring 30 points in every game then K-State is probably surviving and advancing on the bracket.
But I’m going to go in a different direction and choose Nae’Qwan Tomlin.
He is the player that K-State fans should hope gets hot in the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats are going to need more than two stars to win multiple games in March. Go back and look at all their best performances this season and they had three or four players contributing at high levels at the same time.
When the Wildcats blasted Oklahoma on senior day Tomlin had 19 points and five rebounds.
I like K-State’s chances when he gives the Wildcats an inside/outside scoring element.
Desi Sills is also a candidate here. When he’s scoring, K-State is usually winning.
Why not both?
That is the million dollar question for this team.
When Kansas State plays at home and limits turnovers the Wildcats are virtually unbeatable. When you send them on the road and they give the ball away they can lose to just about anyone.
K-State went 15-1 at home this season and 13-8 in all other venues.
K-State went 22-4 when it committed fewer than 19 turnovers and went 1-5 when it committed 19 or more turnovers.
Those are some big differences.
My advice to the Wildcats would be to simply shoot the ball before you can turn it over. That doesn’t mean that Markquis Nowell needs to attempt every logo three he looks at, but Keyontae Johnson, Cam Carter and Desi Sills could all look to shoot rather than risk turnovers while driving to the basket.
When K-State was at its best early in Big 12 and it beat Baylor and Texas in high-scoring road games it shot the cover off the ball. Why pass up a good shot if it’s there?
Being patient and running more set plays in half-court situations might also be beneficial. When Nowell slows down and makes smart decisions he is one of the best point guards in the nation. When he gets sped up he can be turnover prone.
I don’t know what to tell you about the home/road thing, though. If K-State can’t bring its own energy for the NCAA Tournament then something is seriously wrong.
K-State should win its opening-round game against Montana State.
Some experts have jumped on the Bobcats as a potential upset pick, because they do some things that could create matchup problems for the Wildcats such as turning the ball over and scoring at the rim. But I don’t agree with that assertion.
Yes, Montana State is a tricky matchup for K-State on paper. But all of its stats have come against Big Sky competition. The Bobcats have never defeated a power-conference opponent under coach Danny Sprinkle and they have been absolutely blasted in their past three games against high-major competition.
Oregon beat them 81-51 this season. Arizona whipped them 85-64 in December. Texas Tech beat them 97-65 in the NCAA Tournament last year.
The Wildcats should be able to simply out-athlete Montana State.
What happens after the first round? Who knows. K-State would probably be a short favorite against Providence and close to a pick ‘em against Kentucky.
Bart Torvik gives the Wildcats a 43.8% chance of reaching the Sweet 16. That sounds about right. K-State could advance to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament but it is by no means a guarantee.
The only key to winning a pair of games that I haven’t already mentioned is avoiding foul trouble.
Marquette ... by a mile.
The Golden Eagles are a matchup nightmare for the Wildcats. Shaka Smart’s team forces turnovers like crazy and makes 58.8% of its shots from two-point range.
K-State would have to make a lot of shots and grab a lot of offensive rebounds to win that game if both teams end up in the Sweet 16.
But the beautiful thing about March Madness is that someone else could beat Marquette before K-State has to worry about that team. I remember thinking there was no way K-State would be able to beat Virginia during the 2018 NCAA Tournament. Well, No. 16 seed UMBC upset the Cavaliers in the first round and the Wildcats never had to play them on their way to the Elite Eight.
Every game in the NCAA Tournament is hard, though. So it’s not like there is an easy matchup waiting for K-State, especially after the first weekend.
Purdue, Duke, Memphis, Mighigan State, Providence, Kentucky and Florida Atlantic would all be strong opponents.
Oscar Tshiebwe would likely pose some problems for K-State when the Wildcats are on defense.
The Kentucky big man averages an astounding 16.5 points and 13.1 rebounds per game. Much worse big men have done damage against K-State this season.
But the weird thing about Tshiebwe is that he has to put up huge numbers on offense to make up for his complete lack of skill on defense. Teams that try to score against him off the dribble or on pick-and-roll plays usually succeed. He isn’t a good defender in space.
When Kansas played at Kentucky earlier this season, KJ Adams went off for 17 points, three assists and two rebounds against him.
Tshiebwe had 18 points and nine rebounds in that game, but the Jayhawks won 77-68.
Now, that’s just one game. But I think Tshiebwe being a one-way player is part of the reason why Kentucky has been so erratic this season, winning impressive games against Tennessee and Texas A&M but also losing to abysmal teams like Georgia and South Carolina.
My guess is that K-State won’t be able to do much to slow Tshiebwe in a potential Round of 32 matchup. Its best defense would be a good offense. That is a game where I could see David N’Guessan and Nae’Qwan Tomlin putting up huge stat lines against him.
First off, it is kinda crazy how often K-State has played Kentucky in the NCAA Tournament in recent years.
Kentucky won 56-49 in 2014. K-State won 61-58 in 2018. It’s time for a rubber match.
David N’Guessan is somewhat of a forgotten player in the K-State rotation now that he is coming off the bench and Jerome Tang is going with a small starting lineup, but he could the unlikely hero of a game against Kentucky.
As mentioned above, Tshiebwe isn’t much of a defender. And N’Guessan is surprisingly fast off the dribble for a big. I could see him catching the ball near the free-throw line and blowing past Tshiebwe for 15 points.
He scored 23 in a game early on this season before he suffered a lower-body injury. He might be due for a big game under the right circumstances.
Some coaches don’t put much of an emphasis on conference tournaments, but I don’t think that was the case with Tang.
He wanted to win as many games as possible in Kansas City with a friendly crowd cheering his team on.
I don’t think he told any K-State players to rest up for the NCAA Tournament, or anything like that. West Virginia and TCU are simply bad matchups for the Wildcats and both teams took advantage.
My Final Four is Alabama, Marquette, Texas and Connecticut.
I think the Huskies cut down the nets, because when they get hot they seem more capable than anyone of winning six games in a row. They started the season 14-0 and then went through some struggles. But they are playing great again and have won nine of their past 11 games.
What are the odds that K-State makes the Final Four instead of Marquette?
Well, you can currently get the Wildcats at plus odds just to reach the Sweet 16. So they are a bit of a long shot. Fan Duel has K-State at 12-to-1 odds of making the Final Four.
That seems about right.
KelPom would put the odds at about 10%.
But that number would improve dramatically if someone else can beat Marquette in the first two rounds. I think the Golden Eagles are a very bad matchup for the Wildcats.
I like your confidence!
My guess is it would be April 8 on Poyntz. Manhattan Brewing Company will make a mint selling Tang Gang beer if it happens.
I haven’t found anything special about Carolina food during my previous visits to Tobacco Road.
They barbecue style is much different than what you will find in Kansas City or Texas. They focus entirely on the pig. You won’t find brisket out there. But they do make a good pulled pork sandwich with slaw.
Pimento cheese is also a big thing in that region. Not my favorite, but definitely worth a try.
I will let you know if I find any good food out there this week.
Usually, it’s difficult for a coach to climb up into the stands at the NCAA Tournament, so I don’t see Tang dancing with fans after any wins this week. But maybe he can party with the band again.
Let’s end on a football question.
Without Ty Zentner around to do everything on special teams the Wildcats will probably go back to having a separate punter and kicker in the starting lineup.
Jack Blumer will most likely handle punts and Chris Tennant will most likely kick field goals.
This story was originally published March 15, 2023 at 9:55 AM.