Exploring the many Big 12 championship scenarios for KU, K-State football (and others)
Six teams remain in the hunt for a Big 12 football championship.
With three weeks remaining in the regular season, it’s still possible for any combination of Baylor, Kansas, K-State, TCU, Texas and Oklahoma State to earn a berth in the conference title game and play against each other on Dec. 3 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
What will it take for each of them to make it there? Glad you asked.
Here is a look at the many scenarios. (Sorry, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and West Virginia. Better luck next year.)
TCU (9-0, 6-0 Big 12)
Remaining schedule: at Texas, at Baylor, Iowa State.
BetMGM Odds to win the Big 12: +140
The Horned Frogs have by far the easiest path to the Big 12 championship game.
Here’s all they need to make it to Arlington in Sonny Dykes’ first season as coach: One more win. That’s it. TCU will play for a conference title if it wins just one of its final three games against Texas, Baylor and Iowa State. It already owns a head-to-head tiebreaker against KU, K-State and Oklahoma State. Baylor and Texas play each other in the regular-season finale. So one of them is guaranteed to finish with three conference losses.
Win and TCU is in.
There are also scenarios in which the Horned Frogs can lose all three of their remaining games and still make it to Arlington, but they would need hold tiebreakers over Baylor or Texas.
Texas (6-3, 4-2 Big 12)
Remaining schedule: TCU, at Kansas, Baylor
BetMGM Odds: +175
The Longhorns control their own destiny in the Big 12 race following last weekend’s victory at Kansas State. If they close out the season with three more victories, no one can stop them from playing for a Big 12 championship in December.
Three more wins and Texas is in.
Its path to a trophy gets much more complicated with any losses. It can’t pass TCU without a win against the Horned Frogs. And it can’t finish in front of Baylor if the Bears win one of their next two games and then beat Texas in Austin. It owns a tiebreaker against K-State, but the Wildcats are a threat to pass Texas in the final standings if they win out and Steve Sarkisian’s team does not.
Kansas and Oklahoma State would also have an advantage over Texas if they were to finish tied with the Longhorns.
A three-way tie between Baylor, K-State and Texas for second place would come down to which team owns the best record against the other two. If they’re still tied, it would depend on how each team performed against the top of the Big 12 standings. A win over TCU could be the deciding factor for Baylor or Texas. But there’s a chance it might also come down to who beat Oklahoma State or Kansas.
Got all that?
Believe it or not, TCU might be the least important game left on the Longhorns’ schedule. Victories over KU and Baylor would help more in the tiebreaker department. But even then the Longhorns would need K-State to lose somewhere.
As it stands now, there’s a decent chance Baylor at Texas on Black Friday will serve as a play-in game for the Big 12 championship.
Baylor (6-3, 4-2 Big 12)
Remaining schedule: Kansas State, TCU at Baylor.
BetMGM Odds: +450
The beauty of Baylor’s schedule is that it is back loaded exclusively with other Big 12 contenders. The Bears got off to a slow start this season, but if they finish with three more wins no one can prevent them from defending their status as conference champs next month.
Three more wins and the Bears are in. They could also reach Arlington with two more wins, but the Bears would benefit strongly from beating both K-State and Texas.
Baylor will need a win over the Wildcats to move in front of them in the standings. The same might also be true when it goes against the Longhorns. Splitting those games would require a win over TCU just to have a chance at triggering a complicated multi-team tiebreaker.
K-State (6-3, 4-2 Big 12)
Remaining schedule: at Baylor, at West Virginia, KU
BetMGM Odds: +850
The Wildcats no longer control their own destiny in the league championship race, but they won’t need much help for that to change ... if they win their final three games.
K-State can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game by finishing 3-0 if Texas suffers another loss or TCU completely collapses and finishes 6-3 in conference play.
This weekend’s game against Baylor is practically an elimination game for the Wildcats. If they lose, they won’t have tiebreakers over Baylor, TCU or Texas. Beating the Bears would create some margin for error, but the Wildcats would need to hope for two losses from the Longhorns if K-State loses to West Virginia or Kansas.
Oklahoma State (6-3, 3-3)
Remaining schedule: Iowa State, at Oklahoma, West Virginia
BetMGM Odds: +6000
The Cowboys looked like the team to beat when they started conference play with early wins over Baylor and Texas. But injuries and recent losses at K-State and KU have drastically changed their outlook.
Oklahoma State now needs to win its final three games and hope only one team finishes better than 6-3 in the league standings. The Cowboys own tiebreakers against Baylor and Texas. But not TCU, KU or K-State.
Mike Gundy’s team will be rooting for chaos ... if they end the season on an improbable winning streak.
Kansas
Remaining schedule: at Texas Tech, Texas, at K-State.
BetMGM Odds: +20000
The Jayhawks have one of the simplest roads to a Big 12 championship.
Here is is: If Kansas wins its final three games and Baylor falters twice down the stretch, then Lance Leipold’s team will earn a trip to Arlington.
A 3-0 finish would give KU head-to-head tiebreakers over Oklahoma State, K-State and Texas. But not Baylor. There is no way the Jayhawks can pass TCU. But it can surge past the Bears if they lose twice against a difficult closing schedule.
But there is no margin for error. The Jayhawks can’t afford another loss.