K-State Wildcats vs. Texas Longhorns: score prediction, betting line, odds, TV, time
THE DETAILS
Kickoff: 6 p.m. Saturday
Where: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan
TV: FS1
Radio: KCSP (610 AM) in Kansas City, KKGQ (92.3 FM) in WIchita
The line: Texas by 2 1/2 with an over/under points total of 54 1/2
Prediction
It is surprising to see Texas as the betting favorite in this game.
Yes, the Longhorns (5-3, 3-2 Big 12) are well-rested coming off an idle week and people all across the country like to bet on them and their iconic football brand, but the Wildcats (6-2, 4-1) have been the better team this season.
K-State will also be playing this game inside the friendly confines of Bill Snyder Stadium. That is no small thing. The Wildcats have been dominant at home this year, particularly on defense. During their five games in Manhattan, they have posted two shutouts and forced 14 turnovers while allowing an average of 12 points and 303.6 yards per contest.
Only Tulane has managed to beat K-State at home, and the Green Wave scored just 18 points in that game.
There is no guarantee that the Wildcats will continue to play lights out at home this week, but it seems probable given how much the Longhorns have struggled on the road. Texas coach Steve Sarkisian is 1-6 in true road games over the past two seasons, and the Longhorns have lost both of their Big 12 road games this year, at Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.
For those reasons, K-State seems like the pick here.
There is obviously some concern at quarterback, as the Wildcats plan to once again wait until game time to choose between Adrian Martinez and Will Howard as the starter. But Howard looked like an All-American while throwing for 296 yards and four touchdowns against Oklahoma State last week. I am expecting him to play, which should help K-State keep the Longhorns’ defense honest with deep throws.
My only other worry about K-State is that it is sometimes difficult for a team to backup a flawless performance like the one the Wildcats had last week while trouncing Oklahoma State 48-0. For example, K-State destroyed Missouri 40-12 in Week 2 and turned around and lost to Tulane in Week3.
A let down from K-State would open the door for Texas to win its sixth-straight game in this series. The Wildcats have struggled to stop the run at times this season, and they will be tested by both Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson on Saturday.
There are reasons to like the Longhorns in this matchup, but I give an edge to the Wildcats at home.
Kansas State 27, Texas 24.
Last game prediction: Oklahoma State 33, K-State 31
2022 record on picks: 3-5
2022 record vs. spread: 3-5
2022 record vs. O/U points total: 5-3