K-State Wildcats vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys: score prediction, betting line, TV, time
THE DETAILS
Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. Saturday
Where: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan
TV: FOX
Radio: KCSP (610 AM) in Kansas City, KKGQ (92.3 FM) in WIchita
The line: K-State by 1 1/2 with an over/under points total of 56
Prediction
Accurately trying to predict most of Kansas State’s football games has been difficult this season.
The Wildcats lost to Tulane when they were favored by 13.5 points and beat Oklahoma the following week when they were 13.5-point underdogs. Later, they needed a fourth-quarter comeback to beat Iowa State by a single point and then failed to protect a big lead at TCU after injuries caught up with them.
Yours truly has been on the wrong end of all four of those projections. What I wouldn’t give for a FCS opponent to pop up on the schedule right now like you see in the SEC. Picking a a K-State game that involves a huge point spread would feel like a vacation compared to yet another toss-up.
K-State is favored by 1.5 points against Oklahoma State on Saturday, but it’s impossible to handicap this game without first knowing the injury status of several key players on both teams. The Cowboys could be without as many as seven starters on Saturday, and the Wildcats might not have starting quarterback Adrian Martinez or top linebacker Daniel Green.
Coaches have labeled Martinez as a “game-time decision.” Will Howard will start against Oklahoma State for the third straight year if he is unable to go. Green is considered doubtful to play as he recovers from an injury to his midsection.
If both Martinez and Green are unable to play, Green might be the bigger loss.
Howard played admirably off the bench last week against TCU and led the Wildcats to a 28-10 lead while throwing for 225 yards and two touchdowns. But a shoulder injury knocked him out of the game for two drives in the second half and K-State ran out of gas.
It seems like K-State can still put up points with a backup quarterback in the lineup. But TCU shredded the Wildcats for 38 points and 495 yards with backup linebackers filling in for Green.
The recipe for success in this game seems simple for K-State. Oklahoma State struggles to stop the run. The Cowboys allowed Texas running back Bijan Robinson (140 yards, one touchdown) and Roschon Johnson (73 yards, one touchdown) to torch them on the ground last week. But the Longhorns inexplicably got away from the run and spent most of the second half throwing, even while tryint to protect a lead.
If Deuce Vaughn and DJ Giddens can rush for big yardage and keep Oklahoma State’s potent offense off the field, its chances of winning will increase dramatically.
That could happen. Vaughn is one of the best running backs in the country, after all. But they will be much more versatile on the ground with zone-read plays if Martinez is on the field instead of Howard.
If K-State can’t deliver a dominant rushing performance, the Cowboys may leave Manhattan with an important win. Spencer Sanders leads all Big 12 quarterbacks with 2,030 passing yards this season. Oklahoma State leads the conference with an average of 44.7 points per game. Stopping this attack won’t be easy, especially without Green.
Two more things to consider in this matchup: Mike Gundy is 3-0 against Chris Klieman and the Cowboys uncharacteristically have a big advantage on special teams.
All things considered, it makes sense to pick the team that has a healthy QB1 and has owned this matchup in recent years. But that may be worth re-evaluating after both teams finish warm-ups.
Oklahoma State 33, Kansas State 31.
Last game prediction: Kansas State 28, TCU 27
2022 record on picks: 3-4
2022 record vs. spread: 3-4
2022 record vs. O/U points total: 5-2
This story was originally published October 28, 2022 at 1:27 PM.