K-State Wildcats vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders: Score prediction, betting line, TV, time
THE DETAILS
Kickoff: 11 a.m. Saturday
Where: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan
TV: ESPN+ (online streaming service, subscription required)
Radio: KCSP (610 AM) in Kansas City, KKGQ (92.3 FM) in WIchita
The line: Kansas State by 8 with an over/under points total of 57 1/2
Prediction
Most Kansas State fans will enter this game with a quiet sense of confidence.
The Wildcats have won six straight games against the Red Raiders and haven’t lost to Texas Tech at home since 2008. They are also coming off a thrilling 41-34 victory over Oklahoma that featured Adrian Martinez playing like a Heisman Trophy contender.
It’s only natural to expect another victory Saturday, maybe even a comfortable one.
But (you probably knew that word was coming) there are also several reasons why Texas Tech could pose some challenges for K-State at Bill Snyder Family Stadium, even as a road underdog. Yes, the Red Raiders rarely beat the Wildcats, but they tend to play them close. The average margin of victory in this series since 2016 is seven points.
K-State was fortunate to escape Lubbock with a one-point win last season.
Texas Tech has improved since then. Joey McGuire has taken over as coach and infused new energy into the program. Early victories over Houston and Texas have already made him look like a good hire.
Quarterback Donovan Smith leads the Big 12 with 1,116 passing yards. He will test K-State’s secondary a week after the Wildcats allowed Dillon Gabriel to throw for 330 yards and four touchdowns. The Red Raiders also don’t mess around on defense, particularly against the run. Opponent are averaging just 2.9 yards per rush against them this season.
Deuce Vaughn and Martinez combined to run for 264 yards and four touchdowns last week against Oklahoma. If they duplicate those numbers, the Wildcats will win easily. But running for big yardage might not be so easy against Texas Tech.
The worst thing that could happen to K-State in this game would be to fall behind early. The Wildcats rank 122nd nationally in passing. They don’t want to play catch-up against a team that is averaging nearly 37 points per game.
This feels like a toss-up if you only look at the strengths of each team.
K-State can gain an edge by coming up with turnovers on defense and making big plays on special teams. Smith has thrown five interceptions this season, including three in Texas Tech’s only road game (against North Carolina State). One of them was returned for a touchdown.
The Wildcats have forced seven interceptions this year. If they can come up with another pick, or two, on Saturday, that could be the difference in a close game.
Kansas State 38, Texas Tech 35.
Last game prediction: Oklahoma 31, Kansas State 20.
2022 record on picks: 2-2.
2022 record vs. spread: 2-2.
2022 record vs. O/U points total: 2-2.