K-State Q&A: Is it time to panic about Wildcats QB Adrian Martinez after Tulane loss?
It’s time for another K-State Q&A.
Nothing brings out good questions like an unexpected loss on the football field, and this week is no exception. Let’s dive right in. Thanks, as always, for your participation.
If Adrian Martinez can’t get the K-State offense going this week, I think it will be time for Chris Klieman to consider a change at quarterback.
That being said, I think there’s a decent chance the Nebraska transfer does exactly that against Oklahoma this weekend. The Wildcats enter this game with nothing to lose. They are sizable underdogs (+13) and Martinez will have no choice but to play aggressive against the mighty Sooners.
A good showing in Norman that mirrors his performance against Oklahoma last season (19 of 25 for 289 yards and a touchdown, plus 34 yards and a touchdown as a rusher) would more than suffice. If he does that, then any talk of starting Will Howard can be tabled for at least another week.
But if he keeps trying to be Captain Checkdown and averages less than 5 yards per attempt against Oklahoma, then it might be time to hit the QB panic button.
Remember, Martinez is only a one-year rental. If the offense continues to be stuck in mud, there is certainly an argument for pivoting to Jake Rubley or Howard and seeing if they might have what it takes to be the QB of the future.
But K-State would rather stick to Plan A and let Martinez lead the Wildcats to a bowl game this season. Klieman says that Martinez remains the “unquestioned” starter at the position. They all want this to work. He will get more time to start making plays. But he needs to start producing sooner rather than later.
OK, that’s not bad.
Believe it or not, I think Martinez tosses one deep to Malik Knowles before halftime. How’s that for a prop bet?
The strange thing about Martinez being so hesitant to throw downfield is that he has actually been pretty good at it. His lone deep shot against South Dakota was a nice throw to Phillip Brooks that Brooks couldn’t quite catch. Martinez also sent a beautiful pass to Kade Warner for a 21-yard touchdown against Tulane.
It’s not like he’s getting picked off.
Nor is it like his tendency to throw short on third-and-long has worked out.
You would think he would want to keep taking the occasional deep shot.
I feel like most K-State fans would take Daniel Sams in a heartbeat.
Heck, there are some fans who will go to their grave insisting that Sams was better than Jake Waters ... and Waters holds the school’s single-season passing record!
Last time I checked, the over/under win total for K-State had dropped to 6.5 over at Fan Duel, which is down slightly from when it topped out at seven right before the season got underway.
And the oddsmakers are daring you to bet the over at +150.
So it seems like Vegas is projecting six wins at the moment. I put out a poll on Twitter earlier this week asking fans to predict how many games the Wildcats will win, and the most popular selection was six or seven, followed closely by eight or nine.
So the fan base hasn’t given up hope just yet.
All I can really say is that the odds of a special season have taken a serious hit. Unforeseen losses have been a staple of the Klieman era. Since he arrived in 2019, the Wildcats have lost at home to Arkansas State, Tulane and West Virginia (when the Mountaineers entered the game 3-6) as well as on the road to Texas (when the Longhorns didn’t have a healthy QB).
He won’t ever make the leap from good coach to great coach until he learns how to eliminate those.
I don’t see the Wildcats doing any better than 8-4 now.
Kansas, Iowa State and TCU all starting undefeated makes the Big 12 schedule look much harder than it did a month ago.
The easiest games left on the schedule are Texas Tech at home and West Virginia on the road. At Oklahoma feels like a loss. The others are all swing games.
Still, my guess is they find a path to 7-5 or 6-6 at worst.
The play-calling hasn’t changed.
A few other things have.
Skylar Thompson is no longer the quarterback. K-State is also now playing opponents that have a full roster of players, instead of the junior varsity that LSU rolled out there in Houston.
Thompson was a better quarterback than just about anyone gave him credit for at K-State. He just couldn’t stay healthy. Now that he is at 100%, he’s able to torch NFL defenses ... at least in the preseason. Martinez has been slow to adjust to Collin Klein’s offense and the ball isn’t getting to playmakers such as Phillip Brooks and Malik Knowles nearly as much as it should.
Looking back at the Texas Bowl box score, Thompson had 259 yards and three touchdowns. Martinez has thrown for 301 yards and one score ... in three games.
I’m sure some of the drop-off on offense can be explained by defensive coordinators getting more of a look at Klein’s plays. But it all starts with good QB play, and the Wildcats haven’t been getting much of that this season.
E-MAIL QUESTION: Why in the world does Kansas State refuse to go under center on fourth-and-short? Just sneak the dang ball for a first down! - Jeff M.
This actually doesn’t bother me as much as some.
K-State runs the vast majority of its plays out of the shotgun. Why switch to an unfamiliar formation and risk a fumbled snap just because you’re trying to gain 1 yard instead of 10?
Deuce Vaughn has rushed for many touchdowns out of the shotgun formation. Skylar Thompson was also very effective on those plays in the red zone.
My question is why aren’t the Wildcats running more QB draws or wildcat plays in that situation? That seems much easier than an option pitch.
The Wildcats could try ...
- A bubble screen to Phillip Brooks
- Putting Deuce Vaughn in the slot
- More end-around handoffs to Malik Knowles
- Using DJ Giddens and Vaughn at the same time on misdirection plays
- Trick plays. I feel like a flea-flicker would work right about now
K-State would benefit from an influx of talent at receiver. I’m not going to argue otherwise.
Receiver has been a difficult position for Klieman to recruit. I think it’s telling that the best wide out of the Klieman era is still probably Dalton Schoen.
At the same time, Thompson made Brooks and Knowles look very good at times last season. The receiving corps is mostly back and was expected to be a strength on this team.
I’m not sure how much blame you can put on them when Martinez has been so hesitant to throw.
The position I’m more curious about is offensive line. K-State struggled to open up holes all game long against Tulane.
I wouldn’t panic just yet, given K-State’s recent history of success against Oklahoma. But if the Sooners beat the Wildcats by 40 or something, then I don’t know what to tell you.
We’ve covered the offense to death already, so let’s shift to the part of your question that focuses on the defense.
Yes, I think K-State is talented on defense. The Wildcats are allowing 4.1 yards per play, which ranks second in the Big 12, and they have only surrendered 29 points all season. They have also forced a conference-best seven interceptions.
The Wildcats may not be able to sustain that kind of production against Big 12 teams, but they will be able to hold their own.