K-State Q&A: Jerome Tang’s roster, Ayoka Lee and the best-case scenario for football
One of my favorite things to do this time of year is project the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the upcoming Kansas State football season.
Let’s say the Wildcats stay completely healthy and every bounce that possibly could go their way does this fall. What will their ceiling be? On the flip side, what happens if everything goes wrong? What is their floor? Excellent questions. Today is the day for some answers.
Let’s do it!
The best-case scenario for K-State football: 10-2.
With a spot in the Big 12 championship game! I can see this happening, because there isn’t a single game on the Wildcats’ schedule that feels like an automatic loss. Some are more difficult than others, no doubt. But once you remove at Oklahoma and at Baylor the other 10 all feel like probable wins or toss-ups.
I will be very surprised if K-State falls in any of the following games ...
- South Dakota
- Tulane
- Texas Tech
- Kansas
A 6-2 record in the other eight more challenging games seems possible, especially if they can find a way to beat Baylor or OU.
All the Wildcats need to do is take care of business and they will probably beat Missouri, TCU and West Virginia. That’s seven probable victories right there. Three more could definitely be within reach.
ESPN college football statistician Bill Connelly thinks there is a 1% chance K-State can win 11 games. But not even the Lloyd Christmas in me can get that optimistic.
Still, if Adrian Martinez lives his best life at quarterback, Deuce Vaughn stays healthy and the Wildcats find some answers in their defensive secondary, this could be Chris Klieman’s best season in Manhattan.
The worst-case scenario for K-State football: 5-7.
Here’s the bad news about the Wildcats’ football schedule. The eight toss-up games I mentioned above are all going to be challenging.
Missouri was in a bowl last season. Oklahoma is a preseason top 10 team. Iowa State is hard to beat in Ames. TCU could be improved under new coach Sonny Dykes. Klieman has never beaten Oklahoma State, Texas or Baylor and West Virginia tends to give the Wildcats fits.
There is a reason why Vegas oddsmakers set K-State’s under/over win total at 6 1/2.
If Martinez turns out to be a significant downgrade from Skylar Thompson or the wrong players get injured or some of those teams are better than expected, winning streaks could be hard to come by. What if Collin Klein has some growing pains as a first-time offensive coordinator?
The floor feels like five wins to me.
Beating Missouri in Game 2 would be a nice way to avoid this scenario. It’s very hard to envision K-State sweating about bowl eligibility if it gets off to a 3-0 start.
The statistics will probably favor the defense.
Even with Collin Klein attempting to speed up and modernize the offense, other Big 12 teams are going to run more plays and put up more impressive numbers.
K-State ranked fourth in the Big 12 in points allowed last season (21) and eighth in points scored (27.5).
I don’t see the Wildcats moving fast enough on offense to close that gap.
The threat level of K-State pledge Avery Johnson flipping anywhere seems low to me. Most teams only leave one quarterback spot open in each recruiting class, and there simply isn’t much opportunity for movement at that position.
He also seems very content with his commitment to the Wildcats.
I don’t see him wavering.
That being said, nothing will be official until he signs with a school in December. So there’s always a chance another team like Notre Dame could swoop him and make him re-consider his options.
Sorry to open up old wounds, but the Irish already did exactly that with Dylan Edwards.
There is a difference between those situations, though. K-State is treating Johnson like a generational player. It is extremely rare for the Wildcats to land the state’s top quarterback recruit. You have got to think Chris Klieman and Collin Klein will give him every possible opportunity to get start early in his college career.
I feel like fans have already penciled him in as the 2023 starter, regardless of what Will Howard and Jake Rubley do between now and then.
His father once told me he loved that about Johnson’s situation at K-State. Even if he doesn’t win the starting QB job as a true freshmen, there will be people in the stands at Bill Snyder Family Stadium chanting his name after every incomplete pass.
He is basically already famous in Manhattan. That would not be the case anywhere else.
It would actually be the opposite at Notre Dame, where fans have already anointed CJ Carr as the quarterback of the future.
I want autographs from the kicker and the punter.
Chris Tennant and Ty Zentner are both fun guys and there probably won’t be a long line in front of them.
They would also give you something to talk about when visitors see their signatures in your home. Lots of fans have Deuce Vaughn’s autograph. These would be different.
My own autograph collection is a bit weak. The few times I encounter a celebrity I would rather ask them to take a picture with me than sign something.
By the way, my last two photos with celebs were Reggie Miller (one of my favorite basketball players) and Patrick Renna (the guy who played Ham in The Sandlot).
But I do have some fun sports autographs. I got a signed baseball from Mickey Mantle when I was young. My dad also got me a signed Joe Montana football and a signed Mark McGwire jersey.
Kansas State hasn’t beaten Texas on the football field since 2016.
And the last time the Longhorns visited Manhattan they beat the Wildcats 69-31.
I suggest dialing back the “obliterate” talk. Defeating Texas by a single point would be a welcome change for the Cats.
I don’t want to throw a parade for Jerome Tang here.
When a basketball coach admits to running off all but two players, it’s on him to replenish the roster quickly. Simply having 13 scholarship guys on campus for the fall semester is nothing to celebrate. It’s the norm.
Now that I have made that caveat clear, I will say he did a tremendous job finding talent late. I thought the Wildcats would have trouble finding 10 players, let alone 13. And it didn’t look like the players still available to them on the transfer market were any good.
But he found several potential impact players.
Keyontae Johnson was once an All-SEC player at Florida. Desi Sills averaged 12.6 points last season at Arkansas State. Abaymoi Iyiola is a terrific rebounder. Tykei Greene has potential.
If Tang can figure out a way to mold them into a cohesive unit by the time basketball season rolls around, this group has legit hopes of reaching the NCAA Tournament.
The biggest question mark is Johnson. He hasn’t played in two years and there’s really no telling how quickly he can regain his form. That’s if he stays healthy.
Those additions launched K-State all the way up to No. 42 in Bart Torvik’s preseason ratings system. Problem is, that is only ninth best in the Big 12. So I wouldn’t go expecting a conference title in Year 1 just yet.
But I also no longer think the Wildcats are destined to finish last in the conference standings.
The possibility of pulling an Iowa State (winning 22 games with a new coach and a new roster) is now on the table.
Football: Nebraska. Now seems like a good time to reignite this old conference rivalry. The Huskers are down from their Big 8/12 days. The Wildcats are on an upswing. Fans would travel to the games and sell out the stadiums.
Men’s Basketball: Duke. I’ve never been to Cameron. Jerome Tang should make it happen.
Women’s Basketball: Connecticut. Bramlage was packed the one time UCONN came to Manhattan.
Yes. Her plan is to return and play in 2023-24, and I believe that is what will happen. So long as she makes a healthy recovery.
It will be hard for her to jump to the WNBA coming off an injury, and she has aspirations beyond basketball. She likes going to school so much that she didn’t consider leaving after this past season.
Two more years of college means more free classes and more degrees. There is at least a small silver lining there for her. I think Lee is fine with staying in school as long as she possibly can.
But it is absolutely brutal news that she won’t be able to play for the Wildcats next season while she recovers from a knee injury. Jeff Mittie’s team had a chance to be really good with her leading the way.
This story was originally published August 26, 2022 at 11:40 AM.