Five ways K-State Wildcats can beat KU Jayhawks on road for first time since 2006
A month has passed since Kansas erased a large halftime deficit to beat Kansas State 78-75 earlier this season at Bramlage Coliseum, but the Wildcats are still trying to make sense of how they let that game slip away.
Nijel Pack scored a career high 35 points. K-State led by 17 early in the second half. The home crowd was louder than it had been in years. And yet, none of that was good enough for the Wildcats to defeat the Jayhawks.
“They stole one from us,” Pack added. “They came to our house and stole one of the cookies out of the jar. We have to go get that back. We are going to their place. We know how tough it is to play at KU. But we have got to be focused. We have got to come play hard. I feel like we have got a good shot.”
K-State will get an opportunity to exact some revenge against its rival at 8 p.m. on Tuesday at Allen Fieldhouse. The Wildcats are playing well enough at the moment to challenge the Jayhawks on the road, but this game is never easy for them.
Lawrence is usually a nightmare factory for Bruce Weber’s team. The Wildcats haven’t won at Allen Fieldhouse since 2006 when Jim Wooldridge was the coach. Their most recent road win over KU before that came in 1994 under former coach Dana Altman.
That history, combined with the K-State men squandering the first Sunflower Showdown of the season, is enough to make you wonder what it will take for K-State to pull of a road upset over KU on Tuesday with the fifth-ranked Jayhawks expected to be favored by about 12 points.
Well, here are five ways it could happen:
Other guys step up
K-State will need more than another big game from Pack to defeat KU on the road.
Heck, his career high wasn’t enough for the Wildcats to win at home. He simply didn’t get enough help from his teammates for K-State to close out that game. Mark Smith scored two points. Mike McGuirl and Ismael Massoud were held scoreless.
That needs to change in the rematch.
It’s reasonable to assume that Bill Self will have a better defensive strategy prepared for Pack than in their first meeting, so it will be even more important for normal contributors like McGuirl and Smith to play at a high level.
The good news for K-State is that has been happening lately. Smith has been a new man over the past month, averaging 17 points and 10 rebounds during his past seven games. McGuirl had 14 points, four rebounds and two assists in his last game against Oklahoma State. Even Massoud is averaging nearly 10 points in his past three games.
If the Wildcats can continue to get balanced scoring from their lineup and ease some of the burden on Markquis Nowell and Pack their odds of winning will go up.
Keep the winning score under 70
This goal is easier said than done, considering the Jayhawks have the best offense in the Big 12 and average 79.2 points per game.
But K-State stands a much better shot of beating KU in a low-scoring affair than a shootout. Oklahoma nearly pulled off an upset at Allen Fieldhouse by holding the Jayhawks to 71 points. Kentucky beat them there by limiting them to 62. It can be done.
K-State will need to force KU to play a half-court game as much as possible. That means limiting turnovers and playing smart basketball. The Wildcats won’t need to intentionally slow the game down and turn it into a rock fight, but this won’t be the night for heat checks or other risky shots early into possessions.
“If we’re going to have a chance the score probably has to be in the 60s,” Weber said. “Hopefully we’re making shots and taking care of the ball. The biggest thing is keeping them out of transition. When they get their transition and easy hoops it’s tough to stop them. That’s when they can get on a roll and really hurt you.”
Battle for rebounds
KU will once again have a big advantage in the front court. That goes without saying.
David McCormack, Jalen Wilson, Mitch Lightfoot, KJ Adams and Zach Clemence are all much more dependable inside than any of K-State’s big men.
That is why KU won the rebounding battle 45-23 in Manhattan earlier this season. It won that game with rebounds and second-chance points as much as anything.
The Wildcats will need to close that gap on Tuesday. Kaosi Ezeagu gave them a spark off the bench against Oklahoma State. Maybe he can build off that against the Jayhawks. Or maybe Davion Bradford will play his best game of the season. Weber could also choose to go small and hope Smith has one of his best rebounding performances of the year.
It’s unclear what the answer is, but K-State can most certainly win this game if it can find a way to match KU on the glass.
Weather the storm
Though Weber has never guided K-State to a victory inside Allen Fieldhouse, he has come close. The Wildcats lost at the buzzer in 2017 and 2018.
Why were those games different from the ones that turned into blowout losses?
Weber says visiting teams need to be prepared for two strong runs from Kansas, with one coming in each half. The teams that weather those storms hang around until the end. The teams that don’t end up getting crushed.
This group of K-State players seems well prepared to handle the road environment. The Wildcats are 5-5 in road games, and they were the first team to beat Texas at the Erwin Center this season. They battled back from a late seven-point deficit to force overtime on the road against Oklahoma State in their last game.
The Wildcats have taken a lot of pride in their ability to win road games this season. Not being fazed by 16,300 fans on Tuesday will boost their chances against the Jayhawks.
Don’t let Ochai Agbaji beat you
Teams have done some creative, and effective, things on defense against the Big 12’s leading scorer lately.
Texas and Oklahoma limited him to 11 points. Kentucky held him to 13 points. It’s no coincidence KU lost a pair of those games and barely won the other.
Weber would love it if K-State could hold him below 20 points. The Wildcats have never been the type of team that gears its defense around one player, but maybe that is worth considering here. It’s unlikely they will beat the Jayhawks if Agbaji scores another 29 points against them.
This story was originally published February 21, 2022 at 11:44 AM.