Breaking down Kansas State’s NCAA Tournament odds as Wildcats push for March Madness
For most of this college basketball season, any talk of Kansas State reaching the NCAA Tournament could be classified as wishful thinking.
Sure, the Wildcats have technically been in the bubble conversation a few different times this year. But an ugly loss was always looming around the corner to knock them out of the mix. Remember when they lost 67-56 at Mississippi last month? That felt like a knockout blow at the time.
Things have changed dramatically since that low point, though. K-State (14-11, 6-7 Big 12) has picked itself up off the mat to win four of its past five games and move back within reach of the postseason. That winning streak has allowed the Wildcats to climb into sixth place in the conference standings, which gives them a realistic path to March Madness with five games remaining in the regular season.
ESPN bracket expert Joe Lunardi currently projects K-State as the fifth team out of the tournament field. So does Sporting News reporter Mike Decourcy, who predicts the bracket every year for FOX College Hoops. USA Today thinks the Wildcats are currently the seventh alternate.
The Wildcats are a consensus bubble team, according to the experts.
They can legitimately earn an at-large berth into the NCAA Tournament with a strong finish to the regular season and/or a deep run at the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City. But they have work left to do.
“We’re still not there,” K-State men’s basketball coach Bruce Weber said. “We have got a long way to go. We’ve taken some steps. Now, can we (win) three in a row? We’re at Oklahoma State and at Kansas next. This is no easy thing that we can enjoy. We can enjoy it and take a deep breath, but if we want to get where our goal is we have really go to see if we can fight and get one of these next two to be in the top part of the league.”
Let’s examine the good and the bad of K-State’s resume for the NCAA Tournament.
The good: K-State owns five Quad 1 victories according to the current NET rankings, which is used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee to help seed teams. That number ranks 12th nationally. The Wildcats have also played one of the nation’s hardest schedules and own a winning record (5-4) in true road games.
Conference record isn’t supposed to matter, but it has traditionally been hard to ignore any Big 12 team that finishes in the top six of the league standings. The Big 12 has sent six or more teams to the NCAA Tournament every year since 2013. Any team finishing with nine conference wins, which is within reach for K-State, has earned an invited every year going back to 2014.
The bad: K-State won’t wow anyone with its NET ranking of 61 or its Ken Pomeroy rating of 55. The Wildcats have also already lost 11 games, which is more than most other bubble teams. Traditionally, teams need to finish four games over .500 to be considered for an at-large bid.
Georgia getting in at 16-14 in 2001 was a rare exception. Perhaps no one will hold that against the Wildcats, because they lost a game they were favored to win against Morgan State due to COVID. Still, that doesn’t leave much margin for error as K-State attempts to improve its record down the stretch.
So how many more wins will K-State need to lock up a bid?
It seems like three or four could both be magic numbers for the Wildcats. If they can win three of their final five games, they might end up wearing white uniforms in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament. That is usually good enough.
The Wildcats have three Quad 1 games and two Quad 2 games left on their schedule. Any victory from here on out will significantly help their cause.
But there are plenty of other teams vying for the final few at-large spots in the NCAA Tournament. It’s possible K-State may need to further boost its resume with at least one win at the Big 12 Tournament.
In any case, the Wildcats would greatly benefit from a win in their next game on Saturday at Oklahoma State. They have played their way onto the bubble. But a losing streak could doom their chances ... again.