K-State Q&A: Is there a realistic NCAA Tournament path for Bruce Weber’s Wildcats?
It’s time for another K-State Q&A.
As usual, we’ve got lots of fun topics to cover this week. So let’s dive right into your questions about the Wildcats. Thanks, as always, for providing them.
The magic number for Bruce Weber’s basketball team is seven.
At least, that’s how this amateur Bracketologist sees the situation.
If the Wildcats can win seven more games, they will most likely return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019.
It cracks me up that some K-State basketball fans out there think this season is over and there is no hope for a postseason berth unless the Wildcats win the Big 12 Tournament. There are more than 13 seconds left on the clock for this team.
ESPN bracket expert Joe Lunardi currently has K-State as his ninth team out of the field, which means the Wildcats are in the bubble conversation. That also means a winning record over their final 11 games will give them a chance at the Big Dance.
Seven wins would put them in better shape. Eight more wins would probably be enough to clinch.
K-State is 10-9 with a Big 12 record of 2-6. That’s not great. But it owns impressive victories over Texas and Texas Tech, in addition to solid wins over Nebraska and Wichita State. The Wildcats are rated 58th by Ken Pomeroy, 61st by Bart Torvik and 68th in the NET.
Had they found a way to win a couple of their close games against Marquette (64-63), Oklahoma (71-69), West Virginia (71-68), TCU (60-57) and Kansas (78-75) they would be solidly in the field right now.
But they lost all of those games. So now they need make up for it.
The simplest path to the NCAA Tournament is for K-State to win five of its next seven games. That is doable. The hardest stretch of the season has already been played. Upcoming games against Mississippi, Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, Iowa State, West Virginia and Oklahoma State again provides an opportunity for the Wildcats to start winning.
The Baylor game will obviously be difficult, but at least it will be played at home. All of the other opponents in that stretch are ranked between 27 and 121 by KenPom.
If the Wildcats go 5-2 against that competition and then finish 2-2 against Kansas, Iowa State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma they will probably be dancing with a record of 17-13 and most likely 8-10 in the Big 12.
Most teams that win eight games in this conference play in the Big Dance. Oklahoma even did it once after winning just seven league games.
I’m not predicting all that will happen for K-State. But it’s not impossible. Lloyd Christmas would bet on them in a heartbeat.
Put me down for 15-15 overall and 6-12 in the Big 12.
How they play at the Big 12 Tournament will decide if they make the NIT.
I’m maybe being a smidgen too optimistic with that prediction. Torvik and Pomeroy both have K-State finishing 14-16. But this team has also dealt with tons of bad luck this season. Here’s guessing some good things happen down the stretch.
Projected wins: At Ole Miss, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Iowa State, Oklahoma.
Projected losses: At TCU, Baylor, at Iowa State, at Oklahoma State, at Kansas, at Texas Tech.
Flipping at least one, and preferably two, of those losses will be a challenge. But I could see the Wildcats winning on the road against TCU and either Iowa State or Texas Tech.
Of course, none of those wins are gimmes. For example, Bruce Weber has never won a road game in the Big 12/SEC Challenge. Will that finally change at Ole Miss?
I hate to pick on Davion Bradford here, because he is far from the only big man playing at a miserable level for the Wildcats this season. But you asked a good question.
If Bradford was simply the same 7-foot center he was last season, averaging 7.7 points and 4.3 rebounds per game, the Wildcats would probably have four extra wins and be fighting for a spot in the upper half of the conference standings.
The five position has been a weakness for K-State all season. A serviceable center seems like the missing piece of the puzzle, especially when the Wildcats are getting out-rebounded by whopping margins against Baylor and KU.
Bradford is only averaging 4.2 points and 2.5 rebounds this season. He has not only regressed as a sophomore. He has regressed badly. No one else on the roster seems capable of taking his place. Things got so bad last week that at least one person has suggested to me that he wishes Seryee Lewis wasn’t out for the season with an injury. Maybe he could help, but that’s kind of like the K-State football team missing Jaren Lewis at quarterback.
Things aren’t going well if it comes to that.
Who know? Maybe something will start to click with Bradford during the final stretch of the season. K-State needs someone to step up their game inside.
All I can tell you for sure is that there is no hypothetical situation where Doug Gottlieb gets the job.
My guess is K-State would rather explore up-and-coming coaches than the retread market.
But I could see both avenues working out.
Bob Huggins and Bruce Weber were both retread hires, and they turned out OK with the Wildcats. That being said, I don’t think Gene Taylor would be interested in anyone with a history of cheating.
That is unlikely to happen over the course of a full season, but the occasional big women’s basketball game could start drawing a better crowd than the occasional bad men’s basketball game.
The biggest women’s basketball crowd of the season came against Oregon with an announced crowd of 5,209. More people have attended every single men’s basketball game at Bramlage Coliseum. Some dipped below 6,000 this year, but they have all topped 5,209.
With Ayoka Lee saying she will return next season, maybe women’s attendance will grow in 2022-23 and the margin will get smaller between the two teams. We will see. But the men are just about always going to outdraw the women unless we’re talking about a juggernaut team like Connecticut or South Carolina.
The window is open for Jeff Mittie’s team to win a lot of games. The Wildcats are a lock for the NCAA Tournament this season. They should be again next year if Lee returns. The staying power that creates will depend on recruiting.
K-State winning a game in the women’s NCAA Tournament is by far the most likely scenario on this list.
If the Wildcats play a team that lacks a presence inside, Lee will have a huge game and they will advance.
I don’t envision much of a change in that department.
Even if Chris Klieman decides to do a few things differently when it comes to football recruiting after Oklahoma and Texas depart the Big 12, you won’t see any major changes.
The Big 12 will still have a big presence in all of K-State’s traditional recruiting areas, such as Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri. So the Wildcats will keep targeting those states for players.
Adding BYU, Cincinnati and UCF could open up a few new doors in recruiting. K-State already recruits in Florida. Perhaps it will do so more often with a Big 12 school in Orlando.
That could help things.
Ohio produces a large number of college football players. I supposed Klieman could also try to look there for the occasional player. Somehow, I doubt the Cats will spend much time in Utah for recruiting purposes, even after BYU comes aboard.
West Virginia has been in the Big 12 for a decade now. Will Howard, from nearby Pennsylvania, is just about the only player K-State has signed from that region in recent years.
Time will tell, but I doubt Klieman starts dispatching assistant coaches to new regions all the time just because of conference realignment.
Most likely, the K-State baseball team will flirt with a regional invitation but ultimately get left out ... again.
That just seems to be the way it goes for the Bat Cats.
But there is reason for optimism. They were picked seventh in the preseason Big 12 poll, just two points shy of sixth-place Oklahoma.
Hard as it may be to replace a pitcher like Jordan Wicks, K-State could surprise this season if their offense takes a step forward.