K-State Q&A: What are the best and worst conference realignment options for Wildcats?
It’s time for another K-State Q&A.
Much has happened since our last mailbag two long weeks ago. I’m never leaving the state for a family vacation again. I shudder to think what news will break the next time I take a few days off. News of the Big 12’s cease-and-desist letter to ESPN broke yesterday while I was driving to pick up my kids from day care. I must be bad luck somehow. Let’s make up for poorly timed absences by tackling your many questions about conference realignment. Thanks, as always, for your participation.
I’m not prepared to literally hold you and tell you that “it’s all going to be okay,” but I am happy to do so figuratively with the following answer in this week’s mailbag.
Manhattan and K-State won’t fall off the map just because conference realignment has once again descended upon the Big 12.
Scary as it is to think about a team losing its seat at the Big Boys Table after more than 100 years dining there, I can envision many paths forward in which the Wildcats continue to eat hearty just like they have for the past 25 years in the Big 12.
For starters, a refortified Big 12 seems like a lot of fun. If the conference’s remaining eight schools (let’s just call them the Big Eight moving forward) unite, sue Oklahoma and Texas for $160 million in exit fees and invite new teams to replace them ... the Big 12 would remain one of the best five (maybe even four if the Pac-12 continues to struggle) conferences in the country.
The Big Eight plus BYU and Cincinnati or Houston and UCF if you want to go all the way back up to 12 would probably be a stronger football conference than the Pac-12. I could see the league champion making some noise in an expanded playoff.
That league would also definitely be one of the nation’s top basketball leagues.
Sure, that group might not be able to command the same kind of TV revenue that OU and UT brought to the table. But it could bring in a heck of a lot more than the American or Mountain West, which is why it’s ludicrous to think those leagues could poach Big 12 teams right now. Let’s say this new Big 12 distributes anywhere between $20-30 million in yearly revenue to its team instead of the $40 million it grew accustomed to with Texas in the league.
That would create some budgetary challenges for athletic departments, but I think those could be managed. It would beat the $7 million that the American has traditionally paid its members.
Who knows? Maybe a streaming service like Amazon or Hulu steps in and overpays for the media rights, and I’m underestimating things. CBS and FOX could use more inventory now that ESPN is married to the SEC.
The Big Eight plus two or four more could add markets like Houston, Orlando, Cincinnati and Salt Lake City to the conference. If they join the league and prosper, maybe the league will go up in value.
There is also always a chance that other conferences decide to expand and K-State winds up in the Pac-12 with a bundle of former Big 12 teams.
Now, you’re worried about K-State dropping down to the AAC or the MWC. I get it. Both of those scenarios would be sub optimal, especially if they don’t have many former Big 12 friends going with them.
That is their last resort. But even if it happens, teams have thrived in mid-major conferences before. TCU found a way to stay relevant. Boise State, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF have all had their moments without belonging to a power conference. Gonzaga basketball has made the Final Four out of a tiny conference.
There’s a decent chance K-State remains in a power conference moving forward. Even if they don’t, falling out of one isn’t a death sentence.
It seems much more likely to me that the Big Eight will reluctantly unite and rebuild the conference with new teams.
I say that because there aren’t any slam-dunk expansion candidates remaining in the Big 12 for other conferences to poach. KU and Iowa State make some sense in the Big Ten, but the Big Ten doesn’t need to add them. Baylor, Oklahoma State, TCU and Texas Tech could make an interesting package for the Pac-12 to consider, but none of those teams fit the traditional Pac-12 mold. Baylor and TCU are private, religious schools, and Texas Tech is the opposite of Stanford on the academic spectrum. In the Lone Star State, they like to say “get your grades up or get your guns up.” Oklahoma State is located in the wrong state.
It’s hard to see the ACC taking any of those teams, unless it looked at Baylor and Kansas to enhance basketball even further. But basketball doesn’t drive realignment. West Virginia is a geographical fit for the ACC, but the Mountaineers don’t have much else to offer there.
Another question to consider: Can any of the Big Eight schools afford an $80 million exit fee like Texas/Oklahoma? That could be a real problem if only one of them tries to flee.
It’s certainly possible some of those teams could talk their way into other conferences, I’m just saying it’s far from a given.
And if they all strike out with other conferences, they won’t have much choice but to rebuild the Big 12 together.
Instead of limiting your question to just the “good” the “bad” and the “ugly” of K-State’s conference realignment possibilities, let’s rank all the realistic possibilities that have crossed my mind over the past week.
1. The dream scenario: Kansas State forms a partnership with three other schools in the Big 12 and joins the Pac-12 as a package. Because we are talking about a “dream scenario” here, let’s say the other three teams are Kansas, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech.
That would allow the Wildcats to stay in a power conference, keep their strong recruiting ties in Oklahoma and Texas and also continue to play the Jayhawks as a conference rival.
2. The realistic best-case scenario: The Big Eight bind together and refortify the Big 12 with the best available teams from outside power conferences.
3. The retro scenario: The Big Eight stands pat and moves forward with eight teams, just like the good old days.
4. The uh oh scenario: Most of the Big Eight binds together, but one or two teams leave for greener pastures, leaving the Big Six to rebuild the Big 12.
5. The last resort scenario: K-State gets left behind while the majority of the Big Eight find other landing spots, which means the Wildcats have to join the American or Mountain West.
6. The nuclear scenario: Though incredibly unlikely, K-State could give the middle finger to other conferences and try to make it as an independent like BYU or New Mexico State have in recent years.
Rebuilding the Big 12 with a few new teams isn’t sounding so bad now, is it?
The problem with the conference you have proposed is it’s too damn big.
On paper, those teams could compete with, and probably even beat, the Pac-12 in most years. But without national powers like Texas/Oklahoma or USC/Oregon bringing major TV value to the conference, there won’t be much money to go around once you split the pie 16 ways.
That’s why the Big Eight would be better off adding two or four teams instead of eight.
I can’t think of a good reason why KU and K-State should stop playing each other, even if they end up in different conferences when the music stops.
Hurt feelings would be the only thing that could make the Sunflower Showdown end.
Depending on whom you ask, the Jayhawks have an outside shot at landing in the Big Ten, possibly with Iowa State as a travel buddy but not K-State. I have also seen some speculation that KU could end up in ACC or the Pac-12 without K-State.
If either of those scenarios play out and the Wildcats feel betrayed then I suppose the rivalry could go on hiatus. But that wouldn’t last forever. If KU and Missouri can decide to play each other again, the Sunflower Showdown will always be around in some form.
It’s most likely a moot discussion.
Odds are, K-State and KU will remain in the same conference and they will continue playing each other every single year like they always have.
Let’s say it is extremely unlikely that Oklahoma and Texas are still playing in the Big 12 by 2025.
When Colorado, Missouri, Nebraska and Texas A&M left the Big 12 for other leagues a decade ago, they all were playing in their new conferences after just one lame-duck season.
That might be moving a little too fast for the Sooners and Longhorns, given how long it might take them and the Big 12 to negotiate an early exit fee from the conference. Even then, I doubt they spend more than two more seasons in the Big 12.
If they were to spend four more seasons in the Big 12, all of their road games would feel like walking into a snake pit. Every questionable call that went against them would feel personal. Recruiting would also be awkward. There’s a reason schools look to avoid that setup.
Odds are, both will most likely be playing in the SEC by 2022 or 2023.
If that is the most likely outcome, why did they list July 1, 2025 as their preferred start date in the SEC?
Well, they are bound to the Big 12’s grant of rights until then. It doesn’t make much legal sense for them to announce that they plan on breaching that agreement. From their perspective, I’m sure they are hoping the Big 12 dissolves in the near future and they get to leave without paying anybody a dime.
But there’s too much money on the table for the Big Eight to just let them walk away free and clear. The Big 12 will remain in its current form until Oklahoma and Texas pay a huge sum in exit fees, but that will probably happen within the next two years instead of four.
The Pac-12 is by far the most attractive conference K-State could join from a destination perspective. There’s really no place I’m dying to visit in the ACC or Big Ten. The SEC has some cool college towns, but no vacation spots outside of maybe Nashville.
So I say we create our own conference.
We could call it the Vacation Conference!
Colorado, San Diego State, UNLV, Arizona State, Tulane, Hawaii, UCF, USF, Miami and Washington would be the prime candidates.
Only problem is, I’m not sure how K-State would fit in with that group. As much as I love the Little Apple, it’s not exactly a vacation destination.
Yeah, Bob Bowlsby making it sound like conference realignment was borderline impossible two weeks ago was a very bad look for the Big 12 commissioner.
The sense around the Big 12 is that regents who represent Texas and Oklahoma pulled a fast one on everybody over the past six months. So there aren’t a ton of fingers pointed at Bowlsby at the moment. Everyone seems behind him on the cease-and-desist letter.
Still, it’s hard to imagine him staying in command much longer.
In hindsight, he needed to do something bold when ESPN and FOX declined to renegotiate their TV contract with the Big 12 a while back and Oklahoma/Texas refused to extend their rights deal with the Big 12.
Unless he can pull a rabbit out of his hat over the next few months, the Big 12 took a crippling hit under his watch.
All of it.
I talked to a colleague the other day who suggested ESPN, not Oklahoma or Texas, was the true villain behind this round of conference realignment. ESPN is all in on the SEC now that it has pushed CBS out of the way on Saturday afternoons. And ESPN wants the SEC to be as sexy as possible.
So much so, that it is willing to say goodbye to the Longhorn Network and weaken its partnership with the Big 12 to make it happen.
If ESPN truly colluded with the American to try and poach Big 12 teams, that is most certainly not in the best interest of the Big 12 ... and a very stupid plan. I mean, at least collude with the ACC or Pac-12.
That being said, I still think Texas is the biggest villain here. The power teams in other leagues seem to look out for the good of their conference as a whole more than they do themselves. That’s why schools like Vanderbilt, Ole Miss and Mississippi State aren’t getting run out of the SEC right now. But Texas has always looked out for itself above all else and, well, here we are.