K-State Q&A: Can Bruce Weber’s transfer-heavy roster reach NCAA Tournament next year?
It’s time for another K-State Q&A.
Let’s dive right into your questions this week, as we’ve got some excellent ones on tap. Thanks, as always, for your participation.
Give me “significantly higher.”
When K-State’s season came to an end at the Big 12 Tournament last month, I thought the Wildcats had a roster that was capable of making the NIT next year or maybe squeaking into the NCAA Tournament if they had some good fortune.
But that was their ceiling.
They were playing defense at a high level and they flashed some serious potential in their final game against Baylor. Heck, the Wildcats pushed the Bears a lot harder than Houston or Gonzaga did at the Final Four.
Still, I wasn’t convinced that a young roster could make the jump from nine wins to the postseason in just one year.
They needed more experience and better three-point shooting.
Believe it or not, Bruce Weber went out and found some of both in the NCAA transfer portal.
Missouri transfer Mark Smith is a “super senior” and a gifted shooter.
Arkansas-Little Rock transfer Markquis Nowell is a junior that can create his own shot in pressure situations.
Wake Forest transfer Ismael Massoud is a sophomore with legit stretch four talents.
Oh, and Mike McGuirl announced he was returning as a “super senior.”
K-State will have more talent and experience at every position next season.
After analyzing those additions, I think a NCAA Tournament appearance is much more possible. On paper, I’m comfortable saying K-State has a roster that is capable of reaching the NCAA Tournament.
As I point out in my full roster breakdown, the Wildcats will have six former top 150 recruits. Five of them were four-star prospects. They’ve never had that much raw talent under Weber before.
The Wildcats got older and significantly more talented this spring. Weber has never been good at finding transfers or high school recruits this time of year, but he came through with by far his biggest offseason. For once he’s reloading instead of rebuilding.
I totally understand why some fans are reluctant to expect much next year. The last two seasons were brutal. And Weber still has to get all this new talent to play together and defend as a cohesive unit. That won’t be easy. But there is potential for significant improvement here.
Maybe I’m just drinking the portal Kool-Aid, which is cherry flavored by the way, but I think it’s more likely that K-State makes the NCAA Tournament next season than that other scenario.
College basketball statistician Bart Torvik currently projects K-State and its re-tooled roster as the seventh best team in the Big 12 and the 80th best team in the country next season. That is up from ninth and 142nd, respectively, last year.
In other words, he thinks the Wildcats will be a bubble team.
Drake made the NCAA Tournament this year with a Torvik rating of 79. And the top seven teams from the Big 12 all made the Big Dance.
If K-State can overachieve that projection by even a tiny margin, odds are good that the Wildcats will return to the NCAA Tournament.
Looking at the Big 12 landscape, there’s a decent chance that Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and West Virginia take steps back next season. Iowa State and TCU aren’t expected to improve dramatically. The conference might not be the buzz saw it was last season.
Now, Weber still needs to put all the pieces together and win with this group. I understand that’s not a given. I’m not sitting here today predicting that the Wildcats will absolutely, positively, put-a-million-bucks-on-it finish in the top half of Big 12 standings or reach the NCAA Tournament next season.
But I am saying the Wildcats have everything they need to make those things happen. Talent won’t be an issue.
One more good omen for K-State fans: Weber has never missed the NCAA Tournament in three consecutive seasons since he first guided Southern Illinois there in 2002. You could say he’s due for a return trip.
My money is on Smith walking away with transfer MVP honors next season, but that’s no slam dunk.
Nowell can create his own shot and hit three-pointers from Damian Lillard range. Those are talents the Wildcats have sorely missed over the past two years.
Massoud will be the most offensively gifted 4-man to play for K-State since Dean Wade. Massoud scored 31 points in a game against Pittsburgh last season. Another performance like that in Manhattan will be hard for anyone to top.
So I could make a case for all three of them.
But I’m going with Smith because it should be a seamless transition for him to go from playing for Cuonzo Martin to playing for Bruce Weber.
Smith has started in 80 games as a college basketball player, which means he will bring valuable experience to K-State’s locker room. He knows what it takes to play defense at the high-major level, and he knows how to make three-pointers within an offensive system.
He also has a good relationship with Weber and K-State’s entire coaching staff after being recruited by them in the past. If he doesn’t average something like 11 points and five rebounds next season, I will be shocked. He brings the highest floor of all three transfers, so that makes him the safest bet.
Smith also has the clearest path to a starting role. He will definitely be in the starting lineup if Weber sticks with a small lineup. But even if the Wildcats go big he will get plenty of minutes at the two or the three.
Nowell is coming in with the mindset that he is good enough to start next season, but he can’t play the three at his size (5 feet, 7 inches) and it’s going to be awfully hard for him to send Nijel Pack or Mike McGuirl to the bench.
Massoud could light it up as a stretch 4, but he’s probably going to have to share playing time with Montavious Murphy and Logan Landers. As mentioned above, K-State could also go small.
The other two obviously have more long-term potential, because they aren’t fifth-year seniors like Smith. But Smith should make the biggest short-term impact.
There are a few noticeable differences between junior-college transfers and Division-I transfers.
The biggest: Division-I transfers are already playing at the highest level of college basketball and face much less of an adjustment as they switch schools.
It shouldn’t be hard at all for Smith to go from Missouri to K-State. But we’ve seen over the past few years it has been very hard for players like David Sloan, Rudi Williams and Austin Trice to make the jump from junior college to K-State.
That’s not to say it can’t happen. There are plenty of examples of junior-college transfers turning into Division-I studs, but they do seem to be more hit or miss. And they are only around for a maximum of two years. Division-I transfers can still provide up to four years of eligibility at their new school if they spent their first season on the bench with a redshirt.
Division-I transfers also oddly provide some security for rosters, because they have already transferred and will have to sit out a season if they decide to transfer again. So it’s unlikely they will transfer again.
Now, you can’t recruit exclusively transfers. I don’t think you can, at least.
The lifeblood of all college recruiting will always be with high school players who can come in and help a team for four full seasons.
But coaches like Chris Beard, Eric Musselman and Scott Drew have found great success by complementing their core group of high school recruits with a few transfers each season.
It’s not a dangerous plan if you do it all the time.
K-State will return nine players next season, bring in two high school recruits and add three transfers. That seems like a good balance.
Three returners and nine transfers would be playing with fire.
If they’re battling straight up, my money is on the grizzly bear. His claws and teeth will be too much for the gorilla to handle.
But gorillas are much smarter than bears. What happens if the gorilla in this fight grabs a foreign object and uses it as a weapon or communicates with other animals and they gang up on the grizzly?
In the movie “Godzilla vs. Kong” (spoiler alert) the giant monkey wasn’t really a threat to the giant lizard on his own. But he was unstoppable once he found a giant ax in hollow earth.
All things considered, I’m going with the gorilla.
Everyone is planning for full fan capacity at games next season, but it’s unclear if that will actually happen.
Attendance limits will be determined on a county-by-county basis, so Riley County health experts will make the final call on K-State’s football capacity in the fall.
It’s certainly a good sign that baseball attendance is getting a boost. It’s safe to say K-State football should have at least 50% fan capacity next season. We’ll have to wait and see on 75% or 100%.
Will K-State require proof of vaccination to enter games? I’m not sure on that one. But that could be a good way to increase capacity limits.
Another question: Will K-State fans be ready to pack 50,000 into Bill Snyder Family Stadium? It might be a slow adjustment back for some.
In any case, here is what K-State AD Gene Taylor said during one of his recent Q&As with fans:
“We are certainly planning on full capacity and making sure that we continue to move forward. You mentioned vaccinations and certainly those things will help. We are planning on regular tailgating, exit and re-entry policy. We’re still discussing the alcohol sales whether we’re going to have it in all the stadium like we did last fall, or we’re gonna go back to what we’ve done in the past and maybe allow it only in certain areas.”
The new club seating and luxury box area on the south end of the football stadium known as the Shamrock Zone shouldn’t significantly change the venue’s capacity.
I’m pretty sure 50,000 will still be considered a sellout. If not, it will only take slightly more.
It will be open for every game next season.
This story was originally published April 16, 2021 at 5:00 AM.