K-State Wildcats vs. Baylor Bears: Big 12 men’s tournament prediction, line, TV info

The details

When/where: 1:30 p.m. Thursday, T-Mobile Center in Kansas City

TV/radio: ESPN; KKGQ (92.3 FM) in Wichita, KCSP (610 AM) in Kansas City.

Line: Baylor -20

Projected lineups

About No. 2 Baylor (21-1): The Bears are coming off their first regular season conference championship since 1950. They were far and away the best team in the Big 12 this season, as they lost only one game. And it came on the road against Kansas. Jared Butler was voted Big 12 Player of the Year by the Associated Press, while MaCio Teague and Davion Mitchell also received all-conference honors. Scott Drew was voted Coach of the Year in the league. The Bears are gifted on both ends of the floor. Not only do they sport the top offense in the Big 12 (85.3 points per game) they also have one of the league’s strongest defenses (65.6 points per game).

About Kansas State (9-19): The Wildcats are playing their best basketball at the end of the season. After a dismal start to the year, they have surprisingly won four of their past five games to reach the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament with considerable momentum. K-State defeated TCU 71-50 in the opening round of the event on Wednesday. Nijel Pack and Mike McGuirl have formed a solid scoring duo, and the Wildcats have ramped up their defense. They have only allowed 56.4 points per game during their most recent five game stretch.

Prediction: This probably won’t be the same type of epic mismatch we saw between K-State and Baylor twice during the regular season.

The Bears whipped the Wildcats 100-69 at Bramlage Coliseum before Bruce Weber established a consistent rotation. And the Bears humiliated them again 107-59 at Ferrell Center in Waco, Texas when Pack was easing back into the lineup after missing four games because of COVID-19 protocols.

K-State has gone from playing some of its worst defense of the Weber era to some of its best over the past month. That transformation alone should prevent Baylor from reaching triple digits and running away with things for another landslide victory.

But Baylor is still a heavy favorite. Even if K-State closes the gap, it’s hard to see the Wildcats pulling off a monumental upset.

If they have any chance at victory, here are three ways it could happen:

1. Get hot from three-point range

The Wildcats are by far the worst shooting team in the Big 12, so this seems unlikely to happen against a strong defensive opponent like the Bears, but it is their clearest path to victory.

There have been a few games this season where K-State has heated up from the outside, such as when it made nine three-pointers and scored 77 points in a narrow loss against Texas. If the Wildcats can recreate that type of shooting effort against the Bears, and they drain some money balls with the shot clock winding down, their margin for error will increase quite a bit.

2. Hold Baylor below 40% shooting

There is one common denominator that can be found in all nine of K-State’s victories this season.

The Wildcats held their opponents at or below 40% shooting in all of those games.

K-State will need to make that happen again to have a realistic shot against Baylor. That won’t be easy, considering that five of the Bears top nine players shoot better than 40% ... from thee-point range. But the Wildcats have played at an elite level on defense recently, and they are coming off a game in which they held TCU to .701 points per possession.

There’s little chance they can win this game if Baylor makes a run at 80 points, but the Wildcats can hang around if they hold the Bears in the 60s.

3. Provide help for McGuirl and Pack

K-State guards Mike McGuirl and Nijel Pack have scored the vast majority of the team’s points in recent weeks.

McGuirl had 17 points against TCU. Pack hit five three-pointers on his way to 23 points. The rest of the team combined for 31 points.

That was good enough for them to beat the Horned Frogs, but they will need more to seriously challenge the Bears. Weber will look to Selton Miguel and DaJuan Gordon to provide an extra scoring boost. It’s possible. Miguel twice scored 17 points in the regular season. Gordon’s season high is 18 points.

Perhaps Davion Bradford could reach double digits as well? Maybe this is the day Luke Kasubke will find his shooting touch?

Whatever it is, K-State needs something unexpected to happen on offense in this game. Otherwise, it doesn’t have enough fire power to keep up with Baylor.

Baylor 74, Kansas State 62.

This story was originally published March 11, 2021 at 7:44 AM.

Kellis Robinett

The Wichita Eagle

Kellis Robinett covers Kansas State athletics for The Wichita Eagle and The Kansas City Star. A winner of more than a dozen national writing awards, he lives in Manhattan with his wife and four children.