K-State Q&A: How long should fans remain patient with Bruce Weber after this season?
It’s time for another K-State Q&A.
I thought about leading off this week’s mailbag with a few of my own thoughts, but your questions are too good for that, Let’s dive right in. Thanks, as always, for your participation.
If Bruce Weber can guide K-State to a winning record and one of the two main postseason tournaments next season, his seat will remain nice and cool.
But I caution anyone against judging next season’s team based purely on wins and losses.
Setting hard criteria before the season is never a good idea. What happens if the team exceeds those expectations but looks bad doing it? What happens if the team comes up short of those expectations but shows incredible promise for the future?
This question got me thinking back to the time K-State lost by 30 points at Oklahoma in 2017 and it seemed like Weber was on the verge of losing his job. The Wildcats had missed the NCAA Tournament in back-to-back seasons and it looked like they were about to do it again. His seat was scorching hot.
He survived when the Wildcats won three straight games and then outgunned Wake Forest 95-88 in the First Four to reach the NCAA Tournament Round of 64.
Even then, some thought he hadn’t done enough to earn another season.
Let’s say K-State went to the NIT instead of the NCAA Tournament that season and then parted ways with Weber. Would the Wildcats still have won 25 games and reached the Elite Eight the following year with a new coach? Would they have won another 25 games and shared a Big 12 championship the year after that?
Seems like staying patient was the best move regardless of what happened at the end of 2017.
In general, I think people are too eager to try and fire coaches.
K-State didn’t set the world on fire when Barry Brown, Kamau Stokes and Dean Wade were freshmen. They only won 17 games. But you could tell they were heading toward something special. Weber will hope that incoming recruits Nijel Pack, Luke Kasubke, Selton Miguel and Davion Bradford can establish a similar foundation next season, regardless of their final record.
That’s not happening. Not right now, at least. Weber is one year removed from a Big 12 championship and has a top 25 recruiting class on the way. As disappointing as this season has been, he will get an opportunity to bounce back.
A few other things to consider when thinking about things like the temperature of Weber’s seat:
- Six different teams have finished last in the Big 12 standings over the past six seasons. Most of the teams in this conference have gone through a recent down year like this and then improved.
- Weber has never missed the NCAA Tournament in more than three consecutive seasons.
- Only two coaches have been fired after winning a Big 12 championship. The first was Larry Eustachy, mostly because he encountered scandal at Iowa State. The other was Rick Barnes, who lasted 17 seasons at Texas and has since done good things at Tennessee.
This season has been a complete disaster, and Weber deserves criticism for losing 21 games. It would be a bad idea for him to do that again next season. But history suggests he will have moderately long leash moving forward.
The Wildcats will need to win at least 18 games next season to double their current win total of nine.
That feels like a lot to ask for a freshman-oriented team, especially when you think about how much the Wildcats will rely on those newcomers for points.
K-State only won 17 games in 2016 when Brown, Stokes and Wade were freshmen playing alongside Wesley Iwundu and Justin Edwards.
Topping that won’t be easy. I give the Wildcats about a 25% chance of pulling it off.
It all comes down to shooting, for me.
The Wildcats simply don’t have any consistent shooters. Other teams do.
That’s why they keep getting lapped in the final minutes of games, despite playing with admirable levels of effort and rarely getting blown out. K-State led Oklahoma State by four when David Sloan hit a three-pointer at the 10:17 mark of the second half on Wednesday at Gallagher-Iba Arena, but the Wildcats didn’t make another field goal for nearly eight minutes.
Scoring droughts have plagued this team all year, and that’s because it doesn’t have any shooters.
K-State is shooting 31.5% from three, 47.2% from two and 65.6% from the free-throw line. It is bad everywhere.
It seems like Weber has emphasized size, athleticism and defensive ability with his recent recruiting classes. He tried to teach his players how to shoot once they arrived on campus. That strategy didn’t work out this season, and that’s why he has focused primarily on adding shooters in K-State’s 2020 recruiting class.
I’m not expecting any kind of mass player exodus at the conclusion of this season.
With four incoming freshmen on the way and a transfer already on the roster, there aren’t many returning players for the coaching staff to “get rid of” in the spring.
Any player departures we see will probably be voluntary.
James Love is questionable, at best, to play another game in a K-State uniform. The chronically injured big man had season-ending foot surgery a few weeks ago and his college basketball career might be over. He seems likely to graduate and pursue a career in something other than sports next year.
Cartier Diarra has been in school for four years and seems ready to give pro basketball a try. He could elect to return as a senior, but I’m not expecting him back next season.
Nigel Shadd is a candidate to transfer in search of playing time elsewhere.
If all three players leave during the offseason, that would leave the Wildcats with two roster spots to fill, which lines up with Weber’s stated hope of adding seven new players this recruiting cycle.
K-State’s returning players, in that scenario, would be: Mike McGuirl, DaJuan Gordon, David Sloan, Antonio Gordon, Montavious Murphy, Levi Stockard and Joe Petrakis.
Shaka Smart is the rare college basketball coach who has been blessed by injuries.
Texas seemed dead in the water when several of the Longhorns’ best players, including star forward Jericho Sims, were removed from the lineup with injuries a few weeks back and they responded by losing to Iowa State by 29 points.
But it turned out to be a blessing in disguise. Smart has always recruited well at Texas, but it’s been difficult for him to piece together an effective rotation. Injuries changed that for him. Instead of trying to figure out how to play all the good players on his roster, all he had to do was play the healthy ones.
That has allowed previously overlooked contributors like Andrew Jones, Courtney Ramey and Matt Coleman to step up. Will Baker, a former five-star recruit, has also emerged from the end of the bench to deliver some memorable moments.
Texas has won five straight and is probably going to make the NCAA Tournament.
K-State, meanwhile, has lost 10 straight games. Why? There are lots of reasons. But let’s start with recruiting. Weber didn’t follow Brown, Stokes and Wade with strong recruiting classes. The Wildcats are now paying the price.
Losing Montavious Murphy has been a big blow for K-State, because that means Weber has had to go small and turn to Levi Stockard and Antonio Gordon without him. There’s no five-star big man sitting at the end of K-State’s bench.
I think it’s fair to say the Wildcats miss Chester Frazier.
It has been suggested to me by a few insiders that Cartier Diarra, in particular, misses Frazier. That might be one of the reasons why his play and attitude have been all over the map this season.
Frazier used to play for Weber and understands what it takes to win in his system. He is also young and can relate to active players. Jordan Henriquez and Mason Schoen can share similiar wisdom as graduate assistants, but I don’t know that it’s the same wisdom.
His recruiting dipped quite a bit in recent years, and that’s one of the reasons why K-State didn’t fight hard to retain him after Virginia Tech offered him a job. I’m not saying this team would have 20 wins with Frazier on the coaching staff, but it would probably have more than nine.
Team name: Flint Hills Soccer Snails of Manhattan.
Colors: Blue and Gold.
Sponsor: Torchy’s Tacos or Braum’s, whichever rumored restaurant makes it to town first.
Dalton Schoen was the biggest winner at K-State’s Pro Day.
The former Wildcats receiver entered the day with almost no NFL Draft buzz and left it with scouts asking him a bunch of questions. That’s what happens when you run the 40-yard dash in under 4.5 seconds. He also had a nice vertical leap of 35 inches and benched 225 pounds 16 times.
I’m not sure why Bill Snyder used to call Schoen slow. He proved this week that he has enough speed for the NFL. I spoke to several people at K-State’s Pro Day who said they think Schoen can make it as a professional football player ... if a team takes a chance on him. He knows how to get open as a receiver and play special teams. I bet he gets a serious look now.
I still kind of doubt a NFL team uses a draft pick on him, but he could be a valuable undrafted free agent.
He falls into the same category as most of K-State’s NFL hopefuls. They all seem to be fringe late rounders/undrafted free agents.
Scott Frantz probably has the best shot at keeping the draft streak live. But Schoen and punter Devin Anctil, who also had a good pro day, might also be in the conversation.
Did Chris Klieman make the right call by promoting Joe Klanderman to defensive coordinator or should he have looked to hire someone with more experience from outside the program? - Steve P. via e-mail.
On the surface, there isn’t much flash to the Klanderman hire. His only experience as a defensive coordinator came years ago at Minnesota State and he was a position coach at the FCS level just two years ago.
That doesn’t mean he won’t be great for the Wildcats, though.
I like Klieman’s decision to promote from within for two reasons:
1. Klanderman was one of the most well-respected members of K-State’s coaching staff last season. He tutored the safeties, and the Wildcats were very good against the pass, ranking second in the Big 12 while only allowing 202 yards per game.
2. He brings continuity to a defensive unit that could use some.
The oldest members of K-State’s roster have already played under Tom Hayes, Blake Seiler and Scottie Hazelton. They also briefly called Ted Monachino their defensive coordinator. Another outside voice wasn’t needed.
K-State would have loved to retain Hazelton, but it showed a lot of promise on defense last season. Klanderman was a big reason why. He’s also a good recruiter, and his promotion allowed K-State to give Van Malone more responsibilities, as well.
Promoting from within was K-State’s best option.