K-State Q&A: Barry Brown, Bruce Weber, Chris Klieman and the Big 12 title race
It’s time for another K-State Q&A.
No introductory thoughts from me this week, so let’s dive right into your questions. Thanks, as always, for providing them.
Not necessarily. It’s certainly advisable to win in Lawrence, but K-State can claim an outright Big 12 championship without beating KU on the road next week.
K-State is 10-3 and a game up on both Texas Tech and Kansas in the standings. But the Red Raiders host the Jayhawks on Saturday, so the Wildcats can enjoy watching that game knowing that one of their main competitors is guaranteed to lose.
The best outcome for K-State is probably a Texas Tech victory.
That way, the Wildcats will stay in first if all three contenders lose their most difficult remaining game on the schedule. For K-State, that’s at KU. For Texas Tech, that’s at Iowa State. And for KU that’s at Texas Tech. If that happens and the Wildcats win their other games, they claim the Big 12 outright at 14-4. No victory in Lawrence needed.
Of course, it probably won’t end up being so simple.
For grins and giggles, let’s analyze the remaining schedules of all the contenders.
K-State (20-6, 10-3): Oklahoma State, at Kansas, Baylor, at TCU, Oklahoma.
Thoughts: The Wildcats should pulverize the Cowboys in their lucky lavenders, but the other four games are interesting. K-State hasn’t won at KU since the Jim Wooldridge era, Baylor is dangerous with healthy guards, TCU is all over the map and the OU game could come with championship pressure. I see lots of games K-State should win, but won’t be easy.
KU (20-6, 9-4): at Texas Tech, Kansas State, at Oklahoma State, at Oklahoma, Baylor.
Thoughts: The Jayhawks control their own destiny, but they have no margin for error. This seems simple to me: If they win their next two games, they probably end up with at least a share of the Big 12 title. If they lose either of their next two games, the streak is probably over.
Texas Tech (21-5, 9-4): Kansas, Oklahoma State, at TCU, Texas, at Iowa State.
Thoughts: Their closing schedule isn’t all that hard, but the Red Raiders could lose to Kansas or Texas at home and TCU or Iowa State on the road. Closing out a title run in Ames would be very difficult. The final day of the regular season could be off the hook.
Iowa State (19-7, 8-5): at TCU, Oklahoma, at Texas, at West Virginia, Texas Tech.
Thoughts: The Cyclones essentially have to win out to stay in the race. That won’t be easy considering they can’t protect home court and still have three more road games.
Baylor (17-9, 8-5): West Virginia, Texas, at Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Kansas.
Thoughts: The Bears aren’t going to win the title, but they just handed Iowa State a costly L and could easily do the same to K-State and KU down the stretch. They are the ultimate spoilers right now.
I’m thinking 14-4 wins an outright title and 13-5 earns a share.
Back to your original question. Losing in Lawrence won’t hurt K-State’s title chances, because everyone loses there. The Wildcats are playing with house money in that one. They need to be more worried about holding their ground everywhere else. Losing a third home game would be more difficult to overcome.
I don’t see either scenario happening, but K-State losing three more games would surprise me more than the Cats running the table.
Dean Wade’s new foot injury has me doubting the Wildcats can finish 15-3. If he’s little more than a decoy, as Weber suggested on Thursday, than someone is going to beat them down the stretch. And they’ve never played with championship pressure before.
But they have too much resolve to collapse. They have won 10 of their last 11 games and have too much experience to finish 12-6. With Barry Brown playing like the Big 12 Player of the Year, I think they finish 13-5 or better.
The Wildcats will need Cartier Diarra back in the lineup to make a run in Kansas City.
They don’t have much reliable depth at the moment, and it could be difficult for them to play three solid games in three days without their top bench contributor.
Depends on if he can get fully healthy.
Wade has played big minutes in each of K-State’s past two games, but he clearly wasn’t himself in either one. He played good defense and made shots, but he never attacked the basket or dunked.
Moving him to the five and going small isn’t really an option when he plays that way, especially without Diarra. Right now, he’s Robin while Barry Brown is Batman.
But he was Superman when he was at full strength in recent games against Oklahoma State, Kansas, Baylor and Texas.
If he gets his right foot back in a good place, he will play at a very high level. If not, we’re going to keep seeing him as the sidekick instead of the hero.
It has happened before, but only once in Big 12 history.
The year was 1996 and Kansas guard Jacque Vaughn was projected to win Big 12 Player of the Year when the season began. But his teammate, Raef LaFrentz, ended up claiming the honor a few months later after the calendar turned to 1997.
There’s a decent chance that happens again this season with Dean Wade being named Big 12 Preseason Player of the Year and Barry Brown making a strong push for the actual honor.
If the season ended today, my vote would go to Brown. He’s led the Wildcats to the top of the conference standings while Wade has battled foot injuries. You’ve got to respect his steady defense (best in the conference) and improved offense (third in conference games).
The POY race will probably come down to Dedric Lawson, Jarrett Culver and Brown. As long as K-State is in first place, Brown deserves the nod.
It’s not that K-State coaches can’t develop big men (Dean Wade and D.J. Johnson both turned out pretty good), it’s just that the Wildcats currently don’t have much to offer behind Makol Mawien at center.
Levi Stockard could be good as an upperclassman, he’s just not there yet. Austin Trice will be good if (yes, I know it’s a big if) he learns how to play in Bruce Weber’s system and figures out how to make the occasional free throw. James Love and Nigel Shadd offer little more than size at the moment, but they are both young.
I’m not ready to say none of them will ever be good. Johnson didn’t strike me as a future difference-maker when he was a sophomore, but he matured into a quality player. The same thing could happen for any of the bigs mentioned above.
Problem is, none of them seem particularly close to reaching their potential this season. Stockard is the closest. If he could contribute even four points and two rebounds a game, the team would benefit greatly. Trice, Love and Shadd are merely emergency options right now.
All four of them played against West Virginia and they combined for no points, one rebound, two turnovers and nine fouls. Yikes. It’s hard for K-State to go small without Cartier Diarra in the lineup, so keeping Mawien out of foul trouble will be very important down the stretch.
Jacob Pullen.
Barry Brown.
Rodney McGruder.
Dean Wade.
Michael Beasley.
These were some surprisingly easy choices for me. The only hard spot is on the wing. I went back and forth between Wesley Iwundu and McGruder. That was a close one. McGruder was the better overall player at K-State, but Iwundu was a rock star at the end of his senior season. I want both of them, but I ultimately went with McGruder because he was a little better shooter and this lineup already has two great slashers in Brown and Pullen.
That’s fans for you. Chris Klieman’s perception had a similar reversal ... And he hasn’t even coached a game yet.
What seems weird to me is that Bruce haters still show up in my mentions after every loss. They may not say “fire him” anymore. But they still exist.
It was perfectly reasonable to doubt Weber before K-State went on a late run to the NCAA Tournament two years ago. But he turned things around in a big way. If you can’t appreciate his accomplishments with the Wildcats (Big 12 championship, Elite Eight, four NCAA Tournaments, five 20-win seasons, and whatever he adds this year) that’s your problem, not his.
It depends on how good K-State’s incoming recruiting class turns out.
The Wildcats seem to have a quality group on the way with Montavious Murphy, Dajuan Gordon and Antonio Gordon. And Goodnews Kpegeol is already on the roster. Murphy and Dajuan Gordon are both top 150 recruits. Dajuan Gordon and Antonio Gordon are doing impressive things as high school seniors. They could be Weber’s best recruiting class since Barry Brown, Kamau Stokes and Dean Wade.
But those three weren’t ready to lead K-State to the NCAA Tournament as freshmen. They only won 17 games.
Xavier Sneed, Cartier Diarra, Mike McGuirl and Makol Mawien give the Wildcats a decent returning group. But it’s hard to get too excited about any other returning player. K-State will need impact freshmen, especially inside.
I reserve the right to change my answer several times before next season, but I’m thinking the Cats will take a step back and be a bubble team again next year.
It’s not a mirage. Recruiting is a much higher priority for Chris Klieman and his coaching staff than it was for Bill Snyder.
I don’t think the Wildcats are offering any more or less recruits than they used to, but they are chasing those prospects with much more energy. They are also using a new approach that involves social media. Every coach on staff is involved, and Klieman is leading the charge.
The Sunflower State has lots of promising talent in the 2020 class, so it’s a good time to beef up recruiting.
He deserves an immediate contract extension if he brings new football uniforms to Manhattan and double his current salary if he provides weekly injury reports to beat writers.