5 bold predictions and game-by-game picks for K-State’s football season
College football season is nearly upon us, but expectations remain mixed on Kansas State.
With an experienced offensive line and two capable quarterbacks returning, some think Bill Snyder can coach this group into a Big 12 title contender. But there are big holes to fill on defense and new coordinators on both sides of the ball. Maybe these Wildcats will need time to mature into a complete team.
We will find out for sure soon enough. K-State’s first game, Sept. 1 against South Dakota, is fast approaching. Until then, here are five bold predictions for the upcoming season and game-by-game picks for the regular season.
Five bold predictions
K-State won’t settle on a permanent starting quarterback until late September, at the earliest: It seems like a certainty that Alex Delton and Skylar Thompson will share the position in the opener. Even if one of them has clearly won the job, Snyder will want to keep that a secret from Mississippi State. We will get our best read on the position when the Wildcats take on the Bulldogs. If Delton or Thompson shines in that game, expect K-State to stay with him when Big 12 games begin. Still, expect both to play in most games.
Alex Barnes will rush for 1,000 yards: No K-State running back has eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark since John Hubert rushed for 1,048 yards in 2013. None of them has even come close. Barnes was the closest last year, rushing for 819 yards on 146 carries. But it was a somewhat disappointing campaign for the Pittsburg native, given that his average run dropped from 7.9 yards as a freshman to 5.6 yards as a sophomore. He was held back by nagging injuries and erratic usage. Now healthy with an experienced offensive line to run behind, expect a bounce-back season from Barnes.
The Wildcats will miss Byron Pringle: K-State has a stable of good receivers capable of getting open and catching passes on short-and-medium-range routes, but it doesn’t have a true No. 1 target who can stretch the field and win one-on-one deep matchups. That’s something Pringle provided over the past two years. His presence helped fellow receivers like Dalton Schoen and Isaiah Zuber make plays last season. The Wildcats need someone to fill that void, but it’s unclear who on the roster can. There has been very little buzz about the position this summer. K-State’s passing attack will take a step back if no one emerges.
K-State’s secondary will improve against the pass: For years, you’ve been able to expect two things from K-State on defense. The Wildcats stop the run and give up a boatload of yards through the air. That was by design under former defensive coordinator Tom Hayes, who preached a bend-don’t-break style. Things will be different this season. With Blake Seiler now at the helm, expect more press coverage and balanced formations. With Duke Shelley, Kendall Adams and Denzel Goolsby back in the secondary, K-State has no business allowing the most passing yards in the Big 12, as it did last season.
The first four games will tell the tale of K-State’s season: A win over Mississippi State or West Virginia could propel the Wildcats to bigger things than they have achieved in recent years (think 10 wins and maybe even a spot in the Big 12 championship game), and a pair of victories definitely will. Two losses, and, well, the Wildcats are probably staring at more of the same (think another 7-5/8-4 record). K-State has a history of starting slow and finishing strong. They have gone undefeated in nonconference play just once over the past five years but qualified for a bowl in all five seasons. K-State hasn’t defeated a ranked nonconference opponent in the regular season since USC in 2002. Mississippi State is ranked 18th in the preseason coaches poll. K-State hasn’t started Big 12 play with a win over a ranked opponent since 2012. West Virginia is ranked 20th. Win one, or both, of those games, and K-State will be set up for success. But a 2-2 start will put the Wildcats in a challenging spot, especially with No. 23 Texas next on the schedule.
Game-by-game predictions
Sept. 1 vs. South Dakota (6:10 p.m., live stream on ESPN3): The Coyotes pulled off an FBS upset against Bowling Green and made the FCS playoffs last season, so they are no pushovers. Still, K-State should win this game comfortably at home. K-State 45, South Dakota 14
Sept. 8 vs. Mississippi State (11 a.m. on ESPN): The Bulldogs will visit Manhattan with a new coach, but loads of returning talent and a preseason ranking. This is the type of game K-State has rarely won over the years. Mississippi State 24, K-State 21
Sept. 15 vs. Texas-San Antonio (3 p.m. on Fox Sports KC): The Wildcats beat the Roadrunners 30-3 on the road when they last met in 2015. UTSA has improved under coach Frank Wilson, but it seems unlikely to challenge K-State in Manhattan. K-State 35, UTSA 10
Sept. 22 at West Virginia (time and TV TBA): It will be hard for any defense to stop West Virginia stars Will Grier, David Sills and Gary Jennings, let alone one that surrendered a Big 12-worst 309.1 passing yards last season. Then again, K-State typically plays West Virginia close. West Virginia 33, K-State 27
Sept. 29 vs. Texas (time and TV TBA): The Longhorns enter the season with a national ranking. Was that based on reputation or ability? The home team has won six straight in this series. No reason to break tradition now. K-State 30, Texas 23
Oct. 6 at Baylor (time and TV TBA): This is a trap game, of sorts, with K-State playing Texas before and Oklahoma State after. But trap games have never bothered Bill Snyder’s teams. K-State 35, Baylor 21
Oct. 13 vs. Oklahoma State (time and TV TBA): The Wildcats shocked the Cowboys last year on the road. It won’t be a surprise if they defeat Mike Gundy’s re-tooled roster this year at home. K-State 38, Oklahoma State 35
Oct. 27 at Oklahoma (time and TV TBA): The good news: K-State tends to play OU better on the road than at home. The bad news: OU has won nine of the last 11 against the Wildcats in all locations. Oklahoma 44, K-State 28
Nov. 3 at TCU (time and TV TBA): Some think the Horned Frogs are the biggest threat to Oklahoma in the Big 12 this season. Perhaps that’s true. But K-State/TCU is always a toss-up. TCU 33, K-State 27
Nov. 10 vs. Kansas (time and TV TBA): The Governor’s Cup will stay in Manhattan for another year. K-State 45, KU 21
Nov. 17 vs. Texas Tech (time and TV TBA): The Red Raiders are notorious for fading late, and Texas Tech hasn’t won in Manhattan since 2008. Advantage Wildcats. K-State 41, Texas Tech 31
Nov. 24 at Iowa State (time and TV TBA): The Wildcats have won 10 straight over the Cyclones, but many of those wins (including the past three) have come by the thinnest of margins. On paper, Iowa State has the team and the coach to break the cycle. Is this finally the year it beats Bill Snyder? Iowa State 24, K-State 23
This story was originally published August 10, 2018 at 12:49 PM.