Why experts aren’t sold on Kansas State as NCAA Tournament team … yet

Jerry Palm included Kansas State in his latest NCAA Tournament projection this week, but the Wildcats were one of the final at-large teams in his field.

Three days later, the CBS bracket expert thinks he made a mistake.

“I really should have left them out,” Palm said in a phone interview. “They are close to the cut line with one of the 20 worst nonconference schedules in all of Division I basketball. I probably should have put a different team in there.”

K-State (15-5, 5-3 Big 12) has been on a roll lately, winning four of its past five games to move into a four-way tie for second place in the Big 12 standings. But “bracketologists” aren’t giving the Wildcats any love. Some fans assumed their 90-83 road victory over Baylor on Monday would move them solidly into NCAA Tournament projections, but that hasn’t happened. It seems they have more work to do.

ESPN bracket expert Joe Lunardi also listed K-State as one of his last four teams in his projection on Thursday. But the Wildcats were out of his field on Monday. On Twitter, he described their win over Baylor as important, because they need to overcome a “dreadful nonconference schedule.”

Palm agrees.

“Their strength of schedule is really bad,” Palm said. “The little bit of good that they have done has been on their home floor.… It’s nice that they beat Oklahoma and TCU. Those are good wins. But there is more to be done. They can’t just say, ‘We beat Oklahoma.’ Somebody gets left out of the tournament for a weak schedule every year.

“Baylor doesn’t move the needle for me. It’s nice, but Kansas State has to beat teams like Baylor and Iowa State. You can’t afford to lose those games.”

For now, Palm describes K-State’s NCAA Tournament resume with one word: “Thin.”

Why? Start with that weak nonconference schedule. As of Thursday morning, K-State had played the nation’s eighth easiest nonconference schedule, ranking 344 out of 351 teams, according to ESPN RPI numbers. Winning games in the nation’s strongest conference has helped offset early games against American, UMKC, UC Irvine, Northern Arizona, Oral Roberts, USC Upstate and Southeast Missouri State, but the Wildcats need to keep winning if they want to play their way off the bubble.

K-State was the final at-large team selected for the NCAA Tournament last year after going 20-13 in the regular season, including an 8-10 conference mark. It may take more this time around.

“If K-State is sitting there at 8-10 in conference play, with that nonconference schedule, they are going to the NIT for sure,” Palm said. “They are going to have to do really well in a really difficult league to put that schedule out of the selection committee’s mind.”

The Wildcats are working to do that. They are receiving votes in the national polls. Their RPI (53) is improving.

If they continue playing the way they have recently behind Barry Brown and Dean Wade and contend for a Big 12 championship they will not only make the NCAA Tournament, they will earn a favorable seed.

K-State’s next two games will be important.

The Wildcats face Georgia in the Big 12/SEC challenge on Saturday. Palm included Georgia in his latest projection ahead of K-State. He describes the game as a “must-win” for both teams. Losing ground to a fellow bubble team is never good.

“Georgia is huge,” K-State coach Bruce Weber said. “I told (the players) that right away … Georgia is in the tournament (projections) and we are not. It’s a huge game.”

After that, the Wildcats play host to Kansas on Monday. Win that game, and Palm says K-State will have a “feather in its cap.” A win over Kansas would also lift K-State into a tie for first in the Big 12 standings.

Two victories in the next few days, and bracket experts will stop caring so much about K-State’s nonconference schedule. A split, or two losses, and it will remain an issue.

“If they finish in the top four of the Big 12, that is probably going to be good enough,” Palm said. “Are they capable of putting together that kind of record? We haven’t seen that yet. We have seen what they can do at home, and that is good, but they are going to have to take that act on the road and do it against some pretty good teams.”

This story was originally published January 25, 2018 at 10:18 AM with the headline "Why experts aren’t sold on Kansas State as NCAA Tournament team … yet."