Kansas State bowl hopes may hinge on Texas Tech game

The Kansas State football team can qualify for a bowl with or without a road victory against Texas Tech on Saturday, but that’s not the way the Wildcats are approaching their next game.

“It is a must-win for us if we want to become bowl eligible,” K-State kicker Matthew McCrane said. “Not because it’s our next game, but because of our tough schedule.”

K-State (4-4, 2-3 Big 12) could certainly enhance its postseason odds with a win at Texas Tech (4-4, 1-4). The Wildcats need two more victories to become bowl eligible, and the Red Raiders are arguably the most beatable opponent they will face down the stretch. They finish against West Virginia (5-3, 3-2), No. 11 Oklahoma State (7-1, 4-1) and No. 14 Iowa State (6-2, 4-1).

They hoped for more at the beginning of the season, but K-State players remain motivated by the prospect of a bowl.

“We want it real bad,” sophomore receiver Dalton Schoen said. “We all had these ideas of what we wanted for the season coming in, and I think we have really taken hits here and there, and I think that has brought a lot of people down. But team morale is starting to turn again.

“People are starting to think this isn’t a lost season. We can turn this around and go win the rest of these games and end with the same regular season record we had last year, go win a bowl game, and then it is a successful season. There is still a lot to play for.”

Here is a statistical look at K-State’s current bowl picture:

Bill Connelly, Analytics Director for SB Nation, gives the Wildcats a 47.4 percent shot of winning two more games and reaching their eighth straight bowl. That’s essentially a coin flip.

Connelly settled on those odds after handicapping K-State’s final four games. He doesn’t favor the Wildcats in any of them, but he does consider games against Texas Tech (-4.5), West Virginia (-1.2) and Iowa State (-2.8) to be toss-ups. He gives K-State a win probability of at least 40 percent against all three opponents. Only Oklahoma State (-16.6) seems like a long shot with a win probability of 17 percent.

Beat Texas Tech, and all K-State has to do is split home games against West Virginia and Iowa State to become bowl eligible. Lose at Texas Tech, and K-State will have to win both home games or pull a major road upset against the Cowboys.

In other words, K-State’s bowl hopes may hinge on what happens Saturday at Jones AT&T Stadium.

“We are a top program,” McCrane said. “If we didn’t make a bowl game, we don’t deserve to be in the Big 12, I don’t think. With our status, we have got to make a bowl game. That’s why I have been so outspoken on that, because that is our goal. It’s tough to hear that we might not make that bowl. I think we have got a shot, but we have to start out with a win on Saturday.”

Winning in Lubbock, Texas won’t be easy. The Red Raiders and their pass-happy offense are a bad matchup for the Wildcats and their struggling secondary. Texas Tech will also be motivated to make a bowl. A postseason trip seemed like a given following a 4-1 start, but three straight losses have altered that outlook.

Texas Tech’s simplest path to a bowl, according to Connelly, is with victories in its next two games, against K-State and winless Baylor. He gives the Red Raiders a 75.8 percent shot of making a bowl.

K-State players know the odds, and how a win over Texas Tech could influence them.

“It’s perfect for us,” Schoen said. “We know we can win every game on our schedule, as long as we play well and play a full game, which we haven’t really done this whole season. But, yeah, each one is real important. We just have to go out there and execute.”

This story was originally published November 1, 2017 at 12:53 PM with the headline "Kansas State bowl hopes may hinge on Texas Tech game."