Kansas State hopes success at Big 12 Tournament will lead to NCAA bid

Bruce Weber made a bold statement last week when he said Kansas State deserved a spot in the NCAA Tournament if the Wildcats beat Texas Tech and finished sixth in the Big 12 standings.

But he chose not to double down on that proclamation Monday, even after K-State thumped the Red Raiders and clinched the No. 6 seed at this week’s Big 12 Tournament.

“All we told the players yesterday was, we just need to focus on trying to get another win,” Weber said. “We need to focus on the Big 12 Tournament and our first opportunity is Baylor (8 p.m. Thursday at Kansas City’s Sprint Center). You are talking about a team people have as either a 2 or 3 seed (in the NCAA Tournament).

“If you can win that game it has got to help you. There is no doubt.”

The odds of K-State reaching the NCAA Tournament depend on your bracket projection of choice.

Joe Lunardi of ESPN.com has the Wildcats in the NIT as his second team out. But he told a national viewing audience Saturday evening that K-State will make the tournament if it beats Baylor. Jerry Palm, of CBSSports.com, thinks the Wildcats will make the field and currently has them as a No. 11 seed among his final four teams in. USA Today says the Wildcats have major work to do, listing them among their first eight teams out.

K-State boasts a polarizing resume. At 19-12 (8-10 Big 12) the team has done enough to be considered, but there is no telling what the actual selection committee will prioritize when it fills out the bracket.

Here are the positives: K-State owns quality victories against Baylor, Oklahoma State (both on the road) and West Virginia. A KenPom rating of 32 could help its cause, too. History could also be on K-State’s side. The Big 12 has sent seven teams to the NCAA Tournament in each of the past three seasons, including every team that has won at least eight conference games and finished with a winning record.

Playing in the nation’s second-rated RPI conference could pay dividends.

“I hope because of that the committee will recognize and reward our league,” Weber said. “We have some very good wins, road wins. We are one of maybe 10-or-so schools that have two top-25 RPI road wins.”

For now, most Big 12 coaches are backing K-State, which enters the Big 12 Tournament as the league’s only bubble team.

“I sure hope we don’t have any less than six,” Iowa State coach Steve Prohm said. “Maybe a seventh can play its way in in Kansas City. My argument is, we are the No. 2 RPI league in the country, we probably should get more than five teams in. We shouldn’t get hurt by beating each other up.”

Here are the negatives: K-State’s RPI of 58 is on the high side, and it played a soft nonconference schedule. A 3-8 record against the RPI top 50 and a 5-10 mark against the RPI top 100 could also hurt.

There is a sense they already squandered their best shot at making the field by losing consecutive home games to TCU, Kansas, Iowa State and Oklahoma State last month, and then losing 81-51 at Oklahoma.

A majority of bubble teams winning over the weekend didn’t help K-State, either.

“I don’t know where Kansas State sits,” TCU coach Jamie Dixon said. “… I have been in the 11-bid Big East when we had 11 get in (2011) and we won the league and had a No. 1 seed. The key to that whole thing was the five who didn’t make it. There was a distinct separation between the bottom five and the top 11, and that hasn’t been the case in this league.”

It’s true. The opening round of the Big 12 Tournament will feature four teams that combined to win 21 conference games. Last-place Texas beat Iowa State and Oklahoma State. There were no gimmes this year.

Weber hopes all that will help K-State on Selection Sunday. But he no longer sounds as confident as he did last week.

“With all of that said,” Weber said, “now we really need to focus on Baylor.”

This story was originally published March 6, 2017 at 5:18 PM with the headline "Kansas State hopes success at Big 12 Tournament will lead to NCAA bid."