Kellis Robinett looks at the Big 12 Conference
1. Kansas
Coach: Bill Self
2014-15: 27-9, 13-5 Big 12
Star power: F Perry Ellis should challenge for Big 12 Player of the Year honors and lead the Jayhawks in scoring. G Frank Mason and G Devonte Graham form one of the best backcourt tandems in the conference, if not the nation.
On the bright side: The Jayhawks seemed to put the disappointment of back-to-back early NCAA Tournament exits behind them over the summer when they won gold at the World University Games. Wayne Selden came into his own during the tournament, and if he scores more this season, Kansas should have the returning talent and freshmen to win another conference title and make noise in March.
Compelled to mention: Freshman Cheick Diallo still hasn’t been cleared to play, and the Jayhawks’ shooting has been hot and cold for a long time. With Oklahoma, Iowa State and Texas all returning strong teams, the Jayhawks will be challenged in league play.
Come mid-March: Expect the Jayhawks to make it past the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament this season, and possibly return to the Final Four. Preseason magazines picked them No. 1 for a reason. This team is loaded with talent.
2. Oklahoma
Coach: Lon Kruger
2014-15: 24-11, 12-6 Big 12
Star power: G Buddy Hield was named preseason Big 12 Player of the Year for a reason. The 6-foot-4 senior can shoot, slash and defend. F Ryan Spangler is one of the conference’s best bigs. G Isaiah Cousins could have a breakout year.
On the bright side: Kruger has made steady progress since joining the Sooners, turning them into a NCAA Tournament regular after they were one of the worst teams in the Big 12. Last season, he took them to the Sweet 16 and would have played in the Elite Eight had they held on against Michigan State. Hield and Spangler were at the core of that success.
Compelled to mention: Oklahoma will miss forward TaShawn Thomas, who averaged more than 11 points and six rebounds last season. Spangler may have to score more inside. After Hield, Spangler, Cousins and Jordan Woodard, Oklahoma doesn’t return a player who averaged more than 3.3 points. The Sooners will rely mostly on four players.
Come mid-March: Don’t be surprised if the Sooners challenge Kansas for a Big 12 championship. Kruger has beaten the Jayhawks at home and played them tough on the road in past years. If everything falls into place, Oklahoma should return to the Sweet 16, and possibly go a step further.
3. Iowa State
Coach: Steve Prohm
2014-15: 25-9, 12-6 Big 12
Star power: F Georges Niang might be the hardest player to defend in the Big 12. F Jameel McKay, G Nazareth Mitrou-Long and G Monte Morris all averaged more than 10 points last season.
On the bright side: The Cyclones have one of the most balanced offenses in all of college basketball. Niang is a matchup nightmare inside and McKay and Morris are strong on the perimeter. They have reached the NCAA Tournament in four consecutive seasons, and they should easily extend that streak to five under a new coach. Prohm led Murray State to a 104-29 record before arriving in Ames.
Compelled to mention: Fred Hoiberg was a master at using screens to create mismatches for his players. Can Prohm do the same? Will a team that has tasted success under a previous coach buy into Prohm immediately? Legitimate questions. Also, Iowa State has never played even mediocre defense, opening it up to ugly losses. That seems unlikely to change.
Come mid-March: This team has the talent to win the Big 12 and reach the Final Four, but you can’t expect that with so many unknowns. Prohm is in his first season and the roster lacks depth. Still, a trip to the Sweet 16 seems possible.
4. Texas
Coach: Shaka Smart
2014-15: 20-14, 8-10 Big 12
Star power: G Isaiah Taylor averaged 13.1 points last season and is one of the top backcourt players in the Big 12. F Cameron Ridley and F Prince Ibeh form one of the strongest frontcourts in the nation.
On the bright side: Rick Barnes did great things at Texas, but the Longhorns had peaked under their former coach. New blood in the form of Smart has Texas moving in a new, exciting direction. If he can get Javan Felix and DeMarcus Holland to take good shots and Cameron Ridley and Prince Ibeh to embrace his up-tempo offense this team could be hard to beat.
Compelled to mention: Smart never coached a team this big at VCU. There are concerns the Longhorns will struggle to embrace his coaching style. And as good as Ridley, Holland and others look on paper, they never won more than 11 conference games under Barnes. This roster doesn’t know how to handle success.
Come mid-March: The Longhorns will have an outside shot at contending for a Big 12 championship and reaching the Sweet 16. But that’s best-case scenario. More realistically, Texas will win 20 games and reach the round of 32.
5. Baylor
Coach: Scott Drew
2014-15: 24-10, 11-7 Big 12
Star power: F Rico Gathers is a bruising big man that can rebound as well as some NBA players. F Taurean Prince led the team in scoring last year. G King McClure could be one of the best freshmen in the conference.
On the bright side: With Rico Gathers leading the way, anything is possible for the Bears. Gathers has All-America talent and averaged a double-double last season. He should be even better as a senior. Alongside leading scorer Taurean Prince and freshman King McClure this team has high upside.
Compelled to mention: The Bears will miss Kenny Cherry and Royce O’Neal, and the way they lost to Georgia State in the NCAA Tournament – blowing a big lead late – could stick with the team this season. Drew seems to follow great seasons with down seasons. Baylor has reached the Elite Eight twice and the Sweet 16 once in the past six seasons, while also missing the NCAA Tournament twice. Could this be a down year?
Come mid-March: Baylor doesn’t have the depth or experience to contend for a Big 12 championship, but if it gets hot at the right time it could make a run to the Elite Eight.
6. West Virginia
Coach: Bob Huggins
2014-15: 25-10, 11-7 Big 12
Star power: F Devin Williams averaged 11.6 points, while G Jevon Carter and G Daxter Miles have the talent to produce breakthrough seasons.
On the bright side: Huggins drove coaches across the Big 12 crazy last season with a full-court press, muddying up games with fouls and physical play. The strategy took the Mountaineers all the way to the Sweet 16, where they ran into a buzzsaw against Kentucky. But it should work again in conference play. Devin Williams and Jevon Carter should improve with another year under them.
Compelled to mention: Juwan Staten is out of eligibility. The Mountaineers may struggle to adjust without their best player. Officials are also emphasizing new fouls this season, promising to call more fouls on hand checks and any contact. Could that derail West Virginia’s full-court, physical approach?
Come mid-March: The Mountaineers return as much depth as any team in the Big 12. They may not have the talent to consistently compete against Kansas and Oklahoma, but they will spring upsets and reach the NCAA Tournament.
7. Oklahoma State
Coach: Travis Ford
2014-15: 18-14, 8-10 Big 12
Star power: G Phil Forte might be the best outside shooter in the nation. G Juwan Evans comes to Oklahoma State as a top 50 recruit. G Jeff Newberry averaged more than six points last season.
On the bright side: Oklahoma State continues to recruit well, bringing in a pair of talented freshmen in Davon Dillard and Jawun Evans. Alongside top shooter Phil Forte, who averaged 15 points last season, that should be enough to keep the Cowboys competitive. Stillwater remains one of the hardest places to play in the country, which should help Oklahoma State pile up wins in conference play.
Compelled to mention: The bulk of Oklahoma State’s experienced talented graduated last season. Le’Bryan Nash, Antony Hickey and Michael Cobbins are all gone. Asking Forte, once viewed as a complementary bench player, to lead the way seems like a tall order.
Come mid-March: The Cowboys have reached the NCAA Tournament in three straight seasons, but they seem destined for the NIT this year.
8. Kansas State
Coach: Bruce Weber
2014-15: 15-17, 8-10 Big 12
Star power: G Justin Edwards has the potential to average 13 points and G Wesley Iwundu has the talent to do the same. F Stephen Hurt is a skilled outside shooter for a big man.
On the bright side: Things are unlikely to be any worse than last season, when the Wildcats won 15 games while battling each other as much as they battled opponents. Without other scorers demanding the ball, Justin Edwards and Wesley Iwundu should each see a spike in their offensive numbers. The return of D.J. Johnson will help inside, as will the addition of freshman forward Dean Wade. Carlbe Ervin should produce immediately at point guard after transferring from junior college. An emphasis on Weber’s motion offense should get everyone involved.
Compelled to mention: The Wildcats will ask six freshmen and a junior-college transfer to play major minutes this season. They will also ask a group of returning players, none of which averaged more than 6.3 points, to develop into big-time scorers. K-State’s four returning scholarship players combined to average 16.4 points last season. Bruce Weber promises better team chemistry, but there will be a noticeable dropoff in talent from last season.
Come mid-March: K-State may not have what it takes to compete for the NCAA Tournament, or even the NIT. But the Wildcats won’t be pushovers. A roster of players eager to move past year will pull a few upsets.
9. Texas Tech
Coach: Tubby Smith
2014-15: 13-19, 3-15 Big 12
Star power: G Devaugntah Williams led Texas Tech in scoring last season, while C Norense Odiase and F Zach Smith both averaged nearly five rebounds.
On the bright side: Texas Tech returns eight players that played meaningful roles last season. They combined to average 50.5 points. That makes them one of the most experienced teams in the Big 12. Lubbock is becoming a difficult place for visiting teams to play, and if the Red Raiders can get help from their freshmen class they could surprise a few teams this season. It seems strange the Big 12 coaches picked them to finish last.
Compelled to mention: Texas Tech has lost at least 10 conference games in seven straight seasons. The Red Raiders will be an improved team this season, but the talent level is still low. They lack a dominant rebounder and go-to scorer.
Come mid-March: The Red Raiders have the experience to push Oklahoma State and Kansas State in the standings, but if balls start bouncing the wrong way they could also finish in the cellar.
10. TCU
Coach: Trent Johnson
2014-15: 18-15, 4-14 Big 12
Star power: F Kenrich Williams averaged nearly nine points and seven rebounds last season, F Chris Washburn wasn’t far behind and F Karviar Shepherd is a former top 100 recruit.
On the bright side: TCU will have a skilled front line. Williams, Washburn and Shepherd are all versatile players, able to score and rebound against practically anyone. Forward Devonta Abron also averaged 7.5 points last season. The bulk of the Frogs’ scoring should come within the three-point line.
Compelled to mention: The Horned Frogs lack guards. Kyan Anderson led the way under Trent Johnson in past seasons, but he is gone. So is Trey Zeigler. It will be difficult for TCU to compete in the Big 12 without its young guards making big leaps forward.
Come mid-March: Returning to its on-campus arena will help a team that nearly made the NIT last season. The Horned Frogs won’t be pushovers. But it’s hard to see them finishing anywhere other than last in the Big 12.
Kellis Robinett’s Big 12 Predictions
All-Conference
Buddy Hield, Oklahoma
Perry Ellis, Kansas
Rico Gathers, Baylor
Georges Niang, Iowa State
Frank Mason, Kansas
Player of the Year: Ellis
NCAA teams: Kansas, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas
NIT teams: West Virginia, Oklahoma State
Coach on the hot seat: Oklahoma State’s Travis Ford has been on thin ice for years. He underachieved with Marcus Smart and Le’Bryan Nash, failing to win a game in the NCAA Tournament in three straight trips. If the Cowboys fall short of the NCAA Tournament this season, his time in Stillwater may be up.
This story was originally published November 6, 2015 at 9:56 AM with the headline "Kellis Robinett looks at the Big 12 Conference."