College football betting tips, odds and expert picks for big games in Week 12
Last week was one of our best showings of the season.
My picks went 7-3, and we came oh so close to cashing Iowa as a money line underdog against Oregon.
That gives us four straight profitable weeks.
Let’s hope we can stay hot and keep finding winners.
Mississippi State (+7) at Missouri
The Bulldogs are an interesting team. They have a nice victory over Arizona State and several close calls in SEC play, but no signature conference wins. Mississippi State lost in overtime against Tennessee and Texas. Before last week, it had played just about every team on its schedule tough. But Georgia stomped Mississippi State 41-21.
Missouri is also coming off a 38-17 loss to Texas A&M. This game will come down to which side is able to best prepare itself mentally. The Tigers have only covered the spread in one of their past six games. So this number could be a tad high, especially when you factor in quarterback injuries.
Kansas State (-20.5) at Oklahoma State
The Wildcats are huge favorites on the road this week against Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have been the worst team in the Big 12 for a while now, so that makes perfect sense. But K-State has not been a good road favorite under Chris Klieman. The Wildcats have gone 2-9-1 against the spread as road favorites since 2021. The only time they covered a spread this high was in 2021 against Kansas. In other words, back K-State as a big road favorite at your own risk.
My favorite college football bets for Week 12
1. West Virginia (+11.5) at Arizona State: The Mountaineers lost their first five Big 12 games of the season, but they have looked like a different team over the past few weeks. They pushed TCU in a narrow loss and then beat Houston and Colorado. West Virginia has found something with freshman quarterback Scotty Fox. Add in the fact that Arizona State will be without starting QB Sam Leavitt and star wide receiver Jordyn Tyson and I think WVU can stay within the number. Pick: West Virginia.
2. Utah (-9.5) at Baylor: Let’s start this week’s picks with a pair of Big 12 underdogs. The most likely script for this game is an early lead by Utah followed by a furious rally from Baylor that falls just short. The Utes should win, but the backdoor will remain open for the Bears to cover. Pick: Baylor.
3. Iowa (+6.5) at USC: The Hawkeyes should be able to move the ball better than usual against a mediocre defense in ideal conditions on the West Coast. And the Trojans always put up points at home. Let’s hope for a lot of them. Pick: Over (49.5).
4. New Mexico State (+38.5) at Tennessee: I have no interest in watching this game, but it does present a good betting option. The Volunteers have been a good big favorite under head coach Josh Heupel. They won in a similar game against UTEP last season 56-0. New Mexico State also hasn’t played a power-conference team this season. This matchup could get ugly. Pick: Tennessee.
5. Boise State (+2.5) at San Diego State: I’m not sure what happened to San Diego State last week during a 38-6 loss at Hawaii. But the Aztecs have been salty at home all season. Not only are they 4-0 in San Diego, they are 4-0 against the spread. Here’s guessing they bounce back in one of the biggest games on their schedule. Pick: San Diego State.
Last week: 2-3.
Season record: 23-30 (-11.3 units).
Other bets worth considering
6. TCU (+4.5) at BYU: There may not be a harder college football venue to play in at night than LaVell Edwards Stadium. BYU is also one of the best teams in the Big 12. Good luck to the Horned Frogs as they travel to the mountains and take on the Vampire Cougs. Lean: BYU.
7. Air Force (+7.5) at UConn: The Huskies are coming off a terrific victory over Duke, which won us money last week, but that could mean this is a let-down spot for them. It may not be easy to get focused for a triple-option team in one week. Air Force has also been playing better of late. Lean: Air Force.
8. UCF (+23.5) at Texas Tech: No one will be surprised if Texas Tech comes out flat in this game. The Red Raiders are fresh off an emphatic win over BYU and they have a clear path to the Big 12 championship game. Still, I don’t trust UCF to score much against the best defense in the country. This feels like a boring 30-10 win for the home team. Lean: Under 49.5.
9. Arizona (+5.5) at Cincinnati: The Wildcats have been relying on home field for wins all season. And they have barely won several of those. They are 1-2 on the road, and the lone victory came against Colorado. I like the Bearcats, who are fresh off a bye week, to win by more than one score. Lean: Cincinnati.
10. NC State (+14.5) at Miami: The College Football Playoff selection committee showed Miami a ton of respect in its rankings this week, which usually means the Hurricanes are ready for a clunker. Lean: NC State.
Last week: 5-0.
Season record: 32-23 (+7.6 units).
Upset pick of the week
11. Air Force (+250) at UConn: At 7-3, the Huskies are having a dream season. They just beat Duke and they already beat Boston College. UConn has more ACC wins than some ACC teams. But let’s not forget that this team has also lost to Rice, Delaware and Syracuse. The last time it played a triple-option offense, it lost 34-17 to Army in a similar spot at the end of the season. This feels like a good time to fade the Huskies and back the Falcons. Pick: Air Force.
Last week: 0-1.
Season record: 4-7 (+0.8 units).