College football expert picks for Kansas, K-State, Mizzou and Big 12 games in Week 14
We are coming off one of our most profitable weeks of the season.
Anyone who tailed all five bets, all five leans and our upset pick won a smooth 5.2 units on Saturday.
Let’s see if we can stay hot and find some more winners before the college football season comes to an end.
Kansas (-1.5) at Baylor
This is the real Big 12 championship game.
Ignore the mediocre records. Nobody in the conference is playing better at the moment than the Bears or the Jayhawks.
Baylor has won five straight games, mostly by blowout margins, and Kansas has defeated three straight ranked teams. They are also both 5-0 against the spread in their past five games.
Sadly, only one of these ATM machines will continue cashing this week.
Baylor will benefit from playing at home. I was going to make a joke about Kansas not having won in Waco since the Renaissance, but then I looked up the stat and realized that Kansas has never won in Waco. Ever!
But Kansas has looked like the more complete team of late. The Bears have looked mortal at times over the past two weeks, as they gave up 35 points at West Virginia and only scored 20 at Houston. Meanwhile, the Jayhawks are surging in every possible way.
Lance Leipold’s team will also be motivated to reach bowl eligibility. I like both Kansas and the over (61.5) in this game.
Arkansas (+3) at Missouri
The Tigers are starting to live up to preseason expectations now that Brady Cook is healthy and throwing for big yardage again at quarterback. They scored 39 points at Mississippi State last week and covered the spread against both South Carolina and Oklahoma.
Perhaps it is time to back Mizzou as a small home favorite.
Kansas State (+3) at Iowa State
This game could get silly.
Iowa State can’t stop the run, which should be good news for a K-State offense that loves to move the ball on the ground with Avery Johnson, DJ Giddens and Dylan Edwards. The Wildcats have rolled against the worst rushing defenses in the Big 12 this season, and the Cyclones allow 5.1 yards per carry.
But K-State can’t stop the pass. And that is Iowa State’s bread and butter behind Rocco Becht. The Cyclones average 269 passing yards per game and beat teams with explosive plays. That is terrible news for a K-State defense that has made much worse quarterbacks than Becht look superhuman this season.
Perhaps the over (51.5 points) is worth a look, even in cold weather.
It’s also worth noting that Matt Campbell has won three of the past four games in this series. Most of them have been close. This one might come down to another dramatic ending.
My favorite bets
Kansas (-1.5) at Baylor: It pains me to do this, because Baylor has been a moneymaker over the past month. But I think the Bears’ winning streak comes to an end against an even hotter KU team that is playing for bowl eligibility. Pick: Kansas.
TCU (-2.5) at Cincinnati: I didn’t like anything that I saw from the Bearcats during their 41-15 loss against Kansas State last week. They have lost four straight games, all by at least a touchdown. It will be hard for them to snap that skid against the Horned Frogs. Pick: TCU.
Notre Dame (-7.5) at USC: The Trojans are the easiest team to figure out in the country. They are 1-4 against the spread in road games. They are 6-0 against the spread at home and at neutral venues. This game will played at the Coliseum. So give me USC catching more than a touchdown. Pick: USC.
Houston (+12.5) at BYU: One thing I have learned the hard way this season is that Houston is a horrible road team. Outside of an upset victory at TCU when the Cougars switched quarterbacks after a bye week, they have done nothing away from home. They lost their last two road games 27-3 at Arizona and 42-14 at Kansas. They also lost at Cincinnati 34-0. I expect BYU to get back to its winning ways and roll this weekend. Pick: BYU.
UTSA (+7.5) at Army: Take a guess at how many teams have covered the spread a week after they played Notre Dame this season. Spoiler alert: the answer is zero. Army looked beat up at the end of its blowout loss against the Fighting Irish last week. It will be hard for troops to respond, especially against an opponent that has a stout run defense and has scored at least 38 points in four straight games.
Last Week: 4-1
Season: 39-26 (+10.6 units)
Upset pick of the week
Notre Dame at USC (+210): We started the year off with a bang by picking USC to upset LSU in Las Vegas. Let’s try to end the regular season in similar fashion by picking USC to weaken Notre Dame’s playoff chances in Los Angeles.
The Trojans have struggled mightily away from home this season, but it’s been a different story at home.
USC is 4-1 inside the Coliseum with its only loss coming in overtime against Penn State. This game might as well be their Super Bowl against Notre Dame, which could be due for an upset after playing inferior opponents most of the season. Pick: USC.
Season: 4-8 (-1.4 units)
Other lines worth considering
West Virginia (+3.5) at Texas Tech: Did you know the Mountaineers are 3-0 in Big 12 road games with a scoring margin of +36? I won’t be shocked if they complete the road sweep in Lubbock. At the least, this should be a close game. Lean: West Virginia.
Oklahoma State (+16.5) at Colorado: Maealiuaki Smith threw for 326 yards and two touchdowns last week, which finally allowed Ollie Gordon to look like his old self on the ground. Colorado can’t stop the run. The Cowboys can keep this within 17. Lean: Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma (+6) at LSU: Can you say “letdown spot?” I don’t see the Sooners putting together another strong game after their improbable win over Alabama. Lean: LSU.
Arizona (-9.5) at Arizona State: The Sun Devils have not been great at closing out games the past two weeks. The back door should be wide open for the Wildcats in this rivalry game. Lean: Arizona.
Michigan (+21) at Ohio State: The Wolverines are quietly playing much better at the end of the season. Staying within three scores of Ohio State is very realistic. Lean: Michigan.