Betting advice for Missouri, KU, K-State and expert picks in college football Week 10
Every week, Kansas State beat writer Kellis Robinett takes a look at the entire college football schedule and breaks down a dozen or so games that are worth betting on.
Here are his thoughts on various betting lines and games for Week 10:
Kansas State (+4) at Texas
The betting line for this game has changed dramatically over the past few weeks. When Quinn Ewers was healthy, you could find Texas favored by as many as two touchdowns on look-ahead lines. Last week, when Maalik Murphy took over at quarterback for an injured Ewers the line dropped to nine. Now it’s all the way down to four.
Traditional logic would suggest that there is now value on Texas. But K-State has been on a roll of late, dismantling Texas Tech (38-21), TCU (41-3) and Houston (41-0) in consecutive weeks. No one in the Big 12 is playing better. The Wildcats will have a healthy starting quarterback and momentum on their side. The Longhorns will have home-field advantage and recent history (six straight wins in this series) to lean on. This game has many potential outcomes, which makes it difficult to predict.
Kansas (+2.5) at Iowa State
This game will fly under the radar compared to K-State at Texas and Bedlam, but it still has Big 12 championship implications. Iowa State will stay in a tie for first place with a win. KU will remain one game back if it pulls out a victory. This is the biggest KU/Iowa State game in recent memory.
The Jayhawks have been the better team this season, but the Cyclones have a few things going for them here. For starters, they are always tough to beat at home, especially at night. They will also be catching KU a week after it won its biggest game in decades over Oklahoma. It’s not hard to see the Jayhawks letting down a bit or the Cyclones treating this like their Super Bowl. That makes this a good opportunity to back the favorite.
Missouri (+15.5) at Georgia
The Tigers have more than enough offense to give the Bulldogs a game. They nearly pulled off an upset against Georgia last season. Now they will be well rested and coming off a bye week before they play the No. 1 team in the country. Question is: How will Georgia respond to the challenge?
The Bulldogs have seemed to sleep walk through most of their games this season, but they did pummel Kentucky (51-13) and Florida (43-20) in recent weeks as big favorites. If you can’t make up your mind, the over (55) might be a good bet here. The over has hit in five straight Georgia games, and you know the Tigers are going to score.
Best Bets
Last Week: 5-2
Season Record: 28-31-2
Kansas (+2.5) at Iowa State: I am going to continue to back the Cyclones until their hot streak comes to an end. Iowa State has been supremely undervalued since Big 12 play began, and Matt Campbell’s team has covered the spread in four of its past five games. It’s not hard to see that trend continuing at home with KU coming to town for a night game. This is simply a great spot for the Cyclones with the Jayhawks coming off their biggest win in ages. Pick: Iowa State.
Oklahoma (-6.5) at Oklahoma State: At this time last week you could get Oklahoma State as a 10-point underdog on the look-ahead line. Normally, I would say the value has shifted to Oklahoma. But Mike Gundy is one of the most profitable coaches in the country as a home underdog. The Cowboys are 5-0 as home underdogs since 2020. That record isn’t against the spread, either. Those were all outright wins. Furthermore, I think Oklahoma State is better than Oklahoma. Back the Pokes to win the final Big 12 version of Bedlam. Pick: Oklahoma State.
Washington (-3) at USC: Both of these teams have looked suspect lately, but for different reasons. The Trojans have lost two of their past three and needed to stop a late two-point conversion to survive at California. The Huskies have won their past two games by slim margins. But I’m going to chalk that up to boredom coming off a game-of-the-year win over Oregon. Expect Washington to regain its swagger on the road against a USC team that can’t play defense. Pick: Washington.
Western Kentucky (-8) at UTEP: This seems like a perfect opportunity for the Hilltoppers to get right after a pair of losses to Liberty and Jacksonville State. Those defeats came against the best teams in Conference USA. This game will be played against one of the worst teams in that league. Pick: Western Kentucky.
UCLA (-3) at Arizona: The Wildcats have been an underdog in five games this season. All five of those games have ended with Arizona covering the spread, including a pair of outright victories in the past two. The wrong team once again seems favored here. Pick: Arizona.
Jacksonville State (+15.5) at South Carolina: This is the perfect time to back a struggling SEC team. It doesn’t matter how bad South Carolina has looked this season, it is still worlds better than Jacksonville State in terms of talent and athleticism. After weeks of getting beat up by SEC opponents, expect the Gamecocks to take out their frustrations on, well, the Gamecocks. Pick: South Carolina.
Oregon State (-13) at Colorado (+13): I love betting Colorado as a big underdog, especially at home against a team that hasn’t covered this number on the road since Week 1. Why not go back to the well? Pick: Colorado.
Upset Pick of the Week
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (+200): The Cowboys are the most underrated team in the Big 12. Yes, they lost at home to South Alabama, but that was before they began starting Alan Bowman at quarterback and before Ollie Gordon emerged as the best running back in the conference. The Pokes are playing at a high level right now. It will come as a surprise to no one if they win this game. Why not put a little cash on the money line?
Other lines worth considering
Ohio State (-19.5) at Rutgers: It’s possible that Ohio State is simply leaps and bounds better than every team in the Big Ten, outside of Michigan, and it will win this game by a huge margin. But Rutgers has been feistier than usual this season and could easily keep this game competitive at home. Lean: Rutgers.
South Alabama (+4) at Troy: The Trojans are starting to look like the best team in the Sun Belt. The Jaguars have been slumping. Lean: Troy.
Hawaii (+3.5) at Nevada: Fading the Rainbow Warriors on the road is never a bad idea. Hawaii is 0-4 (straight up and against the spread) away from home this season with those losses coming by a combined score of 176-79. Lean: Nevada.
Army (+18.5) at Air Force: Betting on the under in this game is never a bad idea, even when it is as low as it is this week at 31.5 . Lean: Under.
Auburn (-12.5) at Vanderbilt: The Commodores have only covered the spread once all season. Lean: Auburn.
Texas A&M (+3) at Ole Miss: Give me the team with the better offense and home field advantage. Lean: Ole Miss.