Week 9 college football betting picks for Houston at K-State, Oklahoma at KU and more
Every week, Kansas State beat writer Kellis Robinett takes a look at the entire college football schedule and breaks down a dozen or so games that are worth betting on.
Here are his thoughts on various betting lines and games for Week 9:
Houston (+17.5) at Kansas State
This game could turn out to be harder for the Wildcats than some expect.
Sure, if you put Houston and K-State on a neutral field and neither team had any big games on the horizon then the Wildcats would probably cover this spread with ease. But things will be more complicated than that this weekend.
K-State is coming off a huge victory over TCU and Texas is next up on the schedule. This is what you call a “sandwich spot.”
Houston is also the first Big 12 team that K-State has played since Oklahoma State that will have a healthy starting quarterback. Donovan Smith has thrown for nearly 2,000 yards this season and the Wildcats are vulnerable in the secondary.
Odds are high that K-State will win this game at home, but covering could be a different story. This feels like a good spot for the visiting underdog to stay within three scores.
Oklahoma (+10) at Kansas
The Jayhawks are a perfect 4-0 at home this season with all four of their wins coming by double digits. Perhaps Kansas can build on that home-field advantage this weekend and could pull off an outright upset against Oklahoma.
The Sooners looked mortal against UCF last week. They also looked shaky in their only other conference road game when they beat Cincinnati 20-6.
Add in the fact that KU is coming off its open week and it may have some surprises in store for Oklahoma.
Still, it is hard to bet against the Sooners. They have covered the spread in all but one game this season, and Jason Bean (not Jalon Daniels) is expected to start at quarterback for the Jayhawks.
Best Bets
Last Week: 4-3
Season Record: 23-29-2
Iowa State (-2.5) at Baylor: I am a believer in the Cyclones. Matt Campbell’s team has looked much improved since conference play got underway and quarterback Rocco Becht is a big reason why. They should only improve more coming off an open week. Baylor, on the other hand, seems fortunate to have won the games it has. The Bears only have two conference wins and they came against UCF (by one) and Cincinnati (by three). Pick: Iowa State.
Oregon State (-3.5) at Arizona: The Wildcats have been underdogs in four games this season, and they have covered the spread all four times. I’m hoping that trend continues against an Oregon State team that plays much better at home than on the road. Pick: Arizona.
West Virginia (+7.5) at UCF: This is a good opportunity to buy low on the Mountaineers. Nobody wants to bet them after they lost consecutive games to Houston and Oklahoma State. But West Virginia was favored in those games. Now it is back to being an underdog against a team that is allowing 196 rushing yards per game. The market is also high on the Knights right now because they just threw a scare into the Sooners. That means there should be some value on WVU. Pick: West Virginia.
San Jose State (-10) at Hawaii: The Spartans are a team on the rise. Ignore their 1-5 record at the start of the season, which featured games against USC, Oregon State, Toledo, Air Force and Boise State. Now that they’re schedule has gotten more manageable they are winning, and doing so by big margins. They have won each of their past two games by at least 20 points. I think they keep that momentum going on the islands. Pick: San Jose State.
Vanderbilt (+24.5) at Ole Miss: The total for this game is high at 63.5, but I think these teams can go over it. Every Vanderbilt game has gone over this season. Defense could be difficult for both teams. Ole Miss has one of the best offenses in the SEC and is averaging 39.7 points per game. Pick: Over.
Colorado State (+13.5) at Air Force: Jay Norvell has plenty of experience going up against Air Force and its triple option, as he has coached in the Mountain West for a long time at both Nevada and Colorado State. That familiarity and the Rams’ talented offense, should be enough to keep this game within the number. Pick: Colorado State.
Cincinnati (+7) at Oklahoma State: I loved this line when it opened below a touchdown. I still like it here. The Bearcats might be the worst team in the Big 12. They have lost five straight games and this will be their first true taste of a Big 12 road environment. Its earlier game at BYU doesn’t count. The Cowboys are the hottest team in the Big 12 and should be able to keep winning behind running back Ollie Gordon. My only fear is that OSU may look ahead to its next game against Oklahoma. But we aren’t asking the Cowboys to cover a huge spread. I think they can win by two scores. Pick: Oklahoma State.
Upset Pick of the Week
USC at California (+330): I’m going to take a big swing this week and try to more than triple my money by fading the Trojans. This team just seems broken coming off of losses to Notre Dame and Utah. It plays bad defense and its offense appears out of sync. They are out of the playoff picture and Caleb Williams isn’t going to win another Heisman Trophy. USC is mostly playing for pride at this point. This game will mean a lot more to Cal, as the Bears look to beat USC one final team before they move to different conferences.
Other lines worth considering
BYU (+17.5) at Texas: The Longhorns won’t have Quinn Ewers at quarterback this week. I don’t care. They are a much better team than BYU. Lean: BYU.
Colorado (+17.5) at UCLA: I wouldn’t dare bet the Buffaloes as a favorite after what they pulled against Stanford two weeks ago. But I can get behind them as big underdogs. Lean: Colorado.
Indiana (+31.5) at Penn State: Forget how bad Penn State looked against Ohio State last week. The Nittany Lions are extremely skilled at covering big spreads against bad teams. Last time I checked, Indiana wasn’t very good. Lean: Penn State.
Massachusetts (+9.5) at Army: Fading UMass is never a bad idea, especially on the road against a team with a triple-option attack. Lean: Army.
New Mexico (+1.5) at Nevada: The Wolf Pack finally won a game last week at San Diego State. Good for them. But will anyone be surprised if they have a let down this week?. Lean: New Mexico.