Betting advice for K-State, Missouri and the biggest games in college football Week 8
Every week, Kansas State beat writer Kellis Robinett takes a look at the entire college football schedule and breaks down a dozen or so games that are worth betting on.
Here are his thoughts on various betting lines and games for Week 8:
TCU (+6.5) at Kansas State
The Wildcats opened as a favorite of 7.5 points, but that line was immediately bet down under a touchdown. That likely shifted some value to K-State on Saturday.
Granted, this is a hard game to handicap, given that we aren’t sure how head coach Chris Klieman plans to platoon Avery Johnson and Will Howard at quarterback. Nor do we know how TCU freshman Josh Hoover will handle playing in a difficult road environment like Bill Snyder Family Stadium. But he did throw for 439 yards and four touchdowns last week, so he is capable.
If K-State is able to rattle Hoover, it should win easily. If he throws for another 400 yards, TCU could pull off the upset. It will be interesting to see what happens if both teams go with freshman quarterbacks. How will TCU defend Johnson and his running ability?
South Carolina (+7) at Missouri
I wish I bet on the Tigers when they were favored by less than a touchdown earlier this week. Missouri still might be the right side in this game, though. Brady Cook should be able to feast on a mediocre South Carolina defense. But the best bet here might be the over. Both teams may struggle to get stops, and 60.5 points is definitely within reach.
Best Bets
Last Week: 2-5
Season Record: 19-28-2
BYU (+3.5) at Texas Tech: I have successfully faded new Big 12 teams taking on established Big 12 teams several times this season, but I am going to go against that trend here. The Red Raiders have been bad away from home (1-2) and they might be without their top two quarterbacks at BYU. The Cougars are undefeated at home (3-0) and will be looking to bounce back from an ugly performance last week. Pick: BYU.
Utah (+6.5) at USC: It’s hard to trust the Trojans after how bad they looked last week against Notre Dame, but I’m still willing to trust them at home against Utah. If USC is capable of bouncing back, it will happen on Saturday. I highly doubt Caleb Williams throws another three interceptions. Utah has also been mediocre on the road without its starting quarterback. Pick: USC.
Air Force (-10.5) at Navy: It’s hard for a service academy to cover this large of a number against a fellow service academy, because they each know how to defend the triple-option. Navy is nothing special, but it has only lost by double digits twice this season. Air Force will also be missing its starting quarterback on Saturday. When they played last year, Air Force won 13-10. Pick: Navy.
Baylor (+4.5) at Cincinnati: The Bearcats have lost four straight, including three in a row at home. They might be the worst team in the Big 12. That theory will be put to the test against Baylor, which has also struggling mightily this year. But the Bears are coming off an open week and probably shouldn’t be this big of an underdog against a similar foe. Pick: Baylor.
Tennessee (+8.5) at Alabama: The Crimson Tide are starting to look like a championship contender again. That is bad news for Tennessee, which didn’t play well in its first road game of the season and lost by double digits at Florida. Pick: Alabama.
Colorado State (+7.5) at UNLV: Barry Odom has turned UNLV into a covering machine. The Rebels are 6-0 against the spread this season and 5-1 in real life. Colorado State beat Boise State with a miraculous comeback last week at home. I don’t see the same kind of upset happening on the road. Pick: UNLV.
Oklahoma State (+3.5) at West Virginia: I was on the Mountaineers last week and got burned on a last-second Hail Mary by Houston. Will the bad beats ever end? I took it as a bad sign that West Virginia was even in position to lose that game, as Houston is not very good. It’s hard to trust Oklahoma State away from home, but I think they are the better team and will happily take the points. Pick: Oklahoma State.
Upset Pick of the Week
Penn State (+160) at Ohio State: This feels like a game that will come down to the wire. Why not forget about the spread and bet on the underdog to win?
Other lines worth considering
UCF (+18.5) at Oklahoma: John Rhys Plumlee is expected to return at quarterback for the Knights this week. That could make a difference in this game. Then again, Oklahoma is really good, and UCF can’t stop a nosebleed on defense. Lean: Oklahoma.
Clemson (-3) at Miami: After back-to-back emotional losses, I wonder if the Hurricanes are ready to quit on this season. Lean: Clemson.
UTSA (-3) at FAU: Something has felt a bit off all season for the Road Runners. The Owls, meanwhile, have looked good in both of their past two games. Lean: FAU.
Mississippi State (+5.5) at Arkansas: This feels like a get-right spot for the Razorbacks, who have lost a bunch of close games against strong competition this season. Lean: Arkansas.
Arizona State (+28.5) at Washington: It will be hard for the Huskies to cover this number if they have any kind of hangover after beating Oregon. Lean: Arizona State.