History suggests BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF will struggle with Big 12 transition
Winning football games in the Big 12 is never easy, but the difficulty setting can feel like it’s cranked up to cruel and unusual levels for any team that is new to the conference.
Just ask Dana Holgorsen.
He led West Virginia into the league when he was coaching for the Mountaineers back in 2012 and they suffered through a disappointing season that only featured seven wins despite having a roster filled with star players like Geno Smith, Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey.
The Mountaineers were coming off a 10-win campaign and they had won at least nine games in 10 consecutive seasons as members of the Big East. But none of that prepared them for the weekly grind of the Big 12. Things got even worse in Year 2 of their transition when they slumped to 4-8.
Holgorsen shared many reasons for his team’s lack of success at the time, but his biggest gripe was depth. Sure, the Mountaineers had enough high-end talent to compete in the Big 12. On average, though, their roster didn’t stack up. It took three years for West Virginia to post a winning conference record in its new league and five to pull off another 10-win season.
It seems like he has not forgotten about those trials and tribulations now that he is the head coach at Houston, which will officially jump from the American Athletic Conference to the Big 12 on July 1 along with BYU, Cincinnati and UCF.
“From the University of Houston’s perspective, it’s awesome to be a part of it. But you look at it and you go, ‘Woo, that’s going to be pretty challenging,’” Holgorsen said earlier this year. “So, let’s get to work. We’ve got a lot to do.”
He continued.
“There’s just so many things that need to be done,” Holgorsen said. “I don’t think people realize what other people have and what we need. I’m not going to be shy when I say that, because I’ve been at three of those institutions and I know what they have and how much work that they put in over the last three decades. We’ve got some catching up to do.”
History has not been kind to teams as they have made the jump into a new conference.
TCU went an absurd 77-13 under Gary Patterson during its seven seasons in the Mountain West, but the Horned Frogs were under .500 (11-14) during their first two seasons in the Big 12.
Colorado went 3-10 in its first season with the Pac-12 and Missouri went 5-7 during its debut season in the SEC. Maryland and Rutgers have never done anything of note in the Big Ten.
That does not bode well for the Big 12’s four newcomers. But there are some reasons for optimism. The Golden Knights are coached by Gus Malzahn, and they are coming off a nine-win season in the AAC. John Rhys Plumlee is also back as quarterback for UCF. Malzahn has coaching experience at Auburn, so he is no stranger to winning in a power conference.
Holgorsen has also been here before and Houston is fresh off an eight-win campaign. BYU won eight games a year ago and is used to a hard schedule. Cincinnati made the College Football Playoff two years ago.
And some teams have hit the ground running in a new conference.
Nebraska went 9-4 during its first run through the Big Ten and Texas A&M surged to 11-2 in its first year with the SEC. Problem is, neither team was able to sustain that success. The Huskers have only posted one winning season since the Bo Pelini era came to an end. The Aggies have never reached the SEC championship game.
There are only four examples of teams switching leagues and then pulling off a conference championship. Utah did so in the Pac-12 in each of the past two seasons, Pittsburgh won the ACC in 2021 and TCU shared a Big 12 title with Baylor in 2014 before the league brought back its championship game.
TCU is also the only new power-conference team to reach the CFP in the past 12 years, as it advanced to the national championship game a season ago.
Every team mentioned above has benefited from more money and/or exposure in their new conferences. But very few of them have also enjoyed more on-field success.
That is a challenge that BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF must try to overcome as they get used to life in the Big 12.