Predictions, lineups, time, TV for Kansas State Wildcats basketball at Kansas Jayhawks
The details
When/where: 8 p.m. Tuesday at Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV/radio: ESPN; WHB (810 AM), KCSP (610 AM)
About No. 5 Kansas (22-4, 11-2 Big 12): KU leads the all-time series, 202-94. The Jayhawks have won six games in a row, 14 of the last 15 meetings and 63 of the last 69 with the last Wildcat victory 74-67 on Feb. 5, 2019 in Manhattan. … KU is 51-18 versus K-State at Allen Fieldhouse. The Jayhawks have won 15 in a row versus the Wildcats at Allen. KSU’s last win in Allen was 59-55 on Jan. 14, 2006. … Bill Self is 37-6 versus K-State as KU coach. … Kansas has 22 wins for the 32nd time in the last 33 seasons dating to 1989-90. ... KU has 11 league wins for the 28th-consecutive season, a streak which started in 1995 and is the longest active streak in NCAA Division I. ... Kansas is 18-1 when leading at halftime. ... Kansas’ had 38 defensive rebounds in Saturday’s win at West Virginia. It marked a new season high. The previous high of 35 was set against Baylor on Feb. 5. ... Senior Mitch Lightfoot has played in 154 games. He holds the school record for most games played, previously held by Danny Manning (147, 1985-88).. ... Ochai Agbaji has scored in double figures in 71 career games and has scored 20 or more points in 14 games this season and 21 games in his career. ... David McCormack has scored in double figures 15 games this season. He has had 10 or more rebounds in seven games. ...
About Kansas State (14-12, 6-8 Big 12): Bruce Weber is 3-20 versus KU as Kansas State coach. … K-State has won four of its last six games. … K-State has been down but not out in some recent games. K-State rallied from 10 points down in the second half to beat West Virginia, 78-73, on Feb. 14 in Manhattan. The Wildcats came back from a 15-point deficit to beat Iowa State, 75-69, on Feb. 12 in Ames. Earlier in the season KSU squandered a 17-point lead in a 71-68 loss at WVU. … K-State is coming off an 82-79 overtime loss to Oklahoma State on Saturday in Stillwater, Oklahoma. Nijel Pack and Markquis Nowell had 16 points apiece. Former KU guard Bryce Thompson scored 23 points for OSU. … Pack has led K-State in scoring or tied for high-scoring honors in five straight games. … K-State is 5-2 when at least four players score in double figures. … . Five of the team’s eight Big 12 losses have been by one possession, including two points to Oklahoma (69- 71) and three points to West Virginia (68-71), TCU (57-60), Kansas (75-78) and OSU Saturday. … Mark Smith is the only Wildcat to start all 26 games. He has a team-leading six double-doubles. Smith’s 16 rebounds at Oklahoma (1/1/22) and Ole Miss (1/29/22) are the most of any Big 12 player this year. … K-State is 5-1 this season when fifth-year senior Mike McGuirl scores in double figures. … Smith on Jan. 1 against Oklahoma scored 25 points with 16 rebounds and five assists. He became the first Wildcat in school history to post a game of at least 25 points, 15 rebounds and five assists since assists became an official stat in 1976-77. His 16 rebounds were the most since Michael Beasley registered 17 boards against Missouri on Feb. 16, 2008.
Projected lineups
P | No. | Kansas State | Ht. | Yr. | PPG |
F | 21 | Davion Bradford | 7-0 | So. | 3.6 |
G | 13 | Mark Smith | 6-4 | Sr. | 12.3 |
G | 24 | Nigel Pack | 6-0 | So. | 17.5 |
G | 0 | Mike McGuirl | 6-3 | Sr. | 6.7 |
G | 1 | Markquis Nowell | 5-8 | Jr. | 12.1 |
P | No. | Kansas | Ht. | Yr. | PPG |
F | 33 | David McCormack | 6-10 | Sr. | 9.8 |
G | 10 | Jalen Wilson | 6-8 | So. | 10.4 |
G | 30 | Ochai Agbaji | 6-5 | Sr. | 20.0 |
G | 2 | Christian Braun | 6-6 | Jr. | 15.0 |
G | 3 | Dajuan Harris | 6-1 | So. | 5.7 |
Predictions
Kellis Robinett: The Wildcats haven’t won inside Allen Fieldhouse since 2006, and that is unlikely to change on Tuesday.
The Jayhawks are a bad matchup for K-State. They have a massive advantage in the front court, they have lots of depth, they shoot the ball well from three-point range and they know how to win close games.
Just about everything that could go right for K-State did when these two teams met earlier this season at Bramlage Coliseum, and KU still found a way to win. For those reasons, it’s difficult to see K-State winning the rematch.
But let’s not completely discount their chances. The Wildcats have won five road games this season. They were the first team to beat Texas at the Erwin Center and weren’t fazed by big crowds at Iowa State or TCU. If ever there was a K-State team that could handle 16,300 fans cheering against them, this is it.
Mike McGuirl and Mark Smith were also no-shows in the first Sunflower Showdown game of the season. That seems unlikely to happen again. If Smith gives K-State a double-double and McGuirl drains a few threes, this will be a close game.
Even then, the Wildcats will also need solid minutes from Davion Bradford and Kaosi Ezeagu.
Can it all happen? Sure. But it’s a long shot.
Kansas 77, K-State 70.
Jesse Newell: K-State’s a strange team to try to figure out statistically.
Offensively, it seems like it should be better than the numbers. Low turnovers and high-volume three-point makes are typically a dangerous combo, but it hasn’t played up as much for the Wildcats because of the team’s horrific shooting at basically every spot inside the arc.
On defense, meanwhile, K-State crowds the lane and dares opponents to make threes ... but those foes have mostly missed, a result that seems something like four parts good luck and one part defensive control.
The Wildcats will try to slow the pace down Tuesday, and it won’t be too shocking if they succeed. Bruce Weber’s team rarely gives it away and also hustles back well, meaning KU isn’t likely to get the extent of easy tries on fast breaks that it has in many other contests.
I’m worried about the Wildcats on the boards, though, and also think that allowing dare threes to the Jayhawks at Allen Fieldhouse is a dicey way to live.
Don’t be surprised if those long ones go in for KU on Tuesday. Add in that KU’s defense should be more focused on Pack — and generally has been improved in recent games — and I could see the Jayhawks making this challenging for the Wildcats on both ends of the half-court battle.
Give me KU for a comfortable victory.
Kansas 76, K-State 60
This story was originally published February 22, 2022 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Predictions, lineups, time, TV for Kansas State Wildcats basketball at Kansas Jayhawks."
