Seven lessons the Chiefs should learn from the NFL’s seven-team AFC playoff field
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Chiefs must generate high-leverage plays and turnovers to win tight games.
- Add edge pass rush so they can blitz less and generate more pressure.
- Balance rushing attack and add explosive run plays to ease Mahomes’ burden.
The NFL’s Wild Card Weekend features a three-day slate accommodating 12 teams, with two more watching at home and waiting for next week.
This column is about one that didn’t make it.
And they won’t just be a Kansas City storyline this weekend.
After seven consecutive trips to the AFC Championship Game — five of which marched on to the Super Bowl — the Chiefs will sit this one out.
So what can they learn while watching the postseason from home?
Let’s explore.
No. 1 seed Denver Broncos: Win without your best
A year after finishing 12-0 in one-score games — using rabbit-out-of-the-hat formulas late in fourth quarters — the Chiefs were 1-9 in games decided by seven points or fewer.
The Broncos stole the magic.
They outscored the Eagles 18-0 in the fourth quarter for a win; kicked a game-winner against the listless Jets in London; scored 33 in the fourth quarter of a 33-32 win against the Giants; beat the Texans, Raiders and Chiefs by field goals in consecutive weeks; stopped a two-point conversion in overtime against the Commanders; and won four other games by a single possession.
We often judge a team’s future prospects by how well the team is currently playing, and for the 2025 Broncos, none of those outcomes would produce much optimism. But teams that finish atop the conference standings win games they shouldn’t. They win even when they don’t play well.
The Chiefs collected those kinds of wins in 2024.
Other than one overtime win against the Colts, they essentially had only one path to victory in 2025: a blowout.
You can’t stack together enough blowouts to reach the playoffs.
No. 2 New England Patriots: Schedule matters
The Patriots navigated not only the easiest schedule in the NFL, per FTN data — it was nearly twice as easy as any other team in the league. (The Chiefs were middle of the pack.)
The Patriots beat only one team that finished with a winning record, and they later lost to that same team (the Bills). Yet they’re 14-3.
When you’re playing a first-place schedule, and in a division that features two other playoff teams, you can’t just win the easy ones. The path to the postseason is going to require some grind-it-out wins.
The Chiefs were 0-8 against this year’s playoff teams and 0-7 against the AFC field.
If it seems like they lost every big game they had, well, they kind of did.
And that doesn’t cut it.
No. 3 Jacksonville Jaguars: The big play changes everything
The most significant play of the Chiefs’ 2025 season arrived while they were in Jacksonville — and it was a play so critical, in fact, that you can’t help but wonder how the rest of the year might have unfolded without it.
Facing second-and-goal from the 3-yard-line, ready to take the lead in the third quarter, Patrick Mahomes threw an interception at the goal line. Devin Lloyd returned it 99 yards for a touchdown.
That play slashed the Chiefs’ win probability from 76% to 31%, per NFLfastR, which also graded the interception as a 12.7-point swing in expected points (EPA).
The Chiefs went the entire season without having a play worth even half that amount. (Mike Danna’s fluky interception against the Commanders served as their biggest play of the season at 6.6 EPA.)
The Jaguars led the AFC with 31 takeaways. The Chiefs were second-to-last in the conference with 14.
It’s not just the turnovers. The Chiefs went the entire season without a defensive or special teams touchdown. They were dead last in the NFL in explosive rushes. They were middle of the pack in explosive passing plays.
The Jaguars finished ahead of the Chiefs in both statistics. They were built on the big play. So is the NFL.
The Chiefs didn’t accumulate them in any phase.
No. 4 Pittsburgh Steelers: Respond to adversity
The Steelers finished 10-7 to win the AFC North, but they put up some real stinkers this year.
They lost four games by double digits. And they lost a game to the Browns that would have clinched the division a week earlier.
You know what they did in the ensuing week in all five games?
They won.
They’re in the playoffs because they had a knack for putting the past in the past.
The Chiefs, on the other hand, spent the entire season repeating their mistakes. They were atrocious in the fourth quarter. In the eight losses that Patrick Mahomes started, they either led in the fourth quarter or possessed the ball with a chance to take the lead.
It was though they expected something to go wrong — because that’s what the evidence told them to expect.
The Steelers played like they didn’t care what happened a week earlier.
No. 5 Houston Texans: Get after the quarterback
It changes everything.
The Texans will take the league’s No. 1 defense into the playoffs. Nobody is better against the pass on a per-play basis, and while they have some talent in the secondary, one thing stands out about the reason for their success in the defensive backfield:
They have numbers there.
The Texans had the fifth-lowest blitz percentage in the NFL because they don’t need to blitz. Will Anderson Jr. finished second in the league with 85 pressures, and Danielle Hunter was eighth with 68.
When you have those dudes on the edges, who needs to bring an extra rusher?
The Chiefs did. They had the third-highest blitz percentage in the league, in large point because they didn’t believe they could get home with four.
That would be a pretty good place to start a draft class that includes the No. 9 overall pick, by the way.
No. 6 Buffalo Bills: A QB’s best friend
The Bills run the ball very often and very well.
The Chiefs do neither.
Quarterback Josh Allen might be the face of the Bills, but they were one of only two teams in the NFL to run the ball more than they passed it.
It helps when you’re good at it. They were third in success percentage, second in explosive rushes, first in rush yards over expectation and third in EPA/rush.
It sure made Allen’s life easier.
The Chiefs were last in non-scramble explosive rushes and bottom five in broken tackles, yards before contact and yards after contact.
It sure made Mahomes’ life harder.
No. 7 Los Angeles Chargers: Injuries are not an excuse
It’s not about the absences.
It’s about how you handle them.
The Chargers have played most of the season without tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt — and that was supposed to be the strength of their team. Yet they still won 11 games.
Chiefs coach Andy Reid has mentioned getting everyone healthy as a priority for 2026, and that makes sense — Mahomes is rehabbing from a knee surgery. But they were 6-8 with Mahomes, and they didn’t endure what the Chargers did.
Well, at least they didn’t endure it as well as the Chargers did.
This story was originally published January 10, 2026 at 6:00 AM with the headline "Seven lessons the Chiefs should learn from the NFL’s seven-team AFC playoff field."