Best College Football Bets Week 9: Kansas State, Missouri, every Big 12 game and more
What do Arizona State, Colorado, Georgia Tech, Nebraska and Wisconsin all have in common?
Two things.
1. All five of those college football teams decided to fire their head coach this season.
2. All five of those squads went on to win at least one game after making a coaching change.
Another team opted to fire its coach earlier this week. Charlotte parted ways with Will Healy following a disastrous 1-7 start, punctuated by a blowout loss against Florida International.
Believe it or not, that puts the 49ers on the betting map this weekend. Even though they are 2-5 against the spread this season, they might be capable of bouncing back with a win under an interim coach just like all the other schools mentioned above were able to do.
Charlotte is a 16.5-point underdog (with a +550 money line) at Rice if you’re interested. In years past, I wouldn’t care about that game in the slightest. But it’s on my radar now that sports betting is legal in Kansas.
Here are some more thoughts on various betting lines and games from Week 9 of the college football season:
Oklahoma State (+1.5) at Kansas State
These have been two of the most profitable teams in the Big 12.
Oklahoma State is 5-2 against the spread and K-State is 4-2-1. The Cowboys tend to play in lots of games (six of seven) that go over the points total, while the Wildcats usually play in games that go under (four of seven).
This is a difficult game to handicap, because so many players are dealing with injuries on both teams. The Cowboys played without five starters last week during their come-from-behind win over Texas. The Wildcats don’t know if starting quarterback Adrian Martinez or top linebacker Daniel Green will be healthy enough to play.
It’s interesting that the Wildcats are favored when they are the team facing uncertainty at quarterback and they haven’t beaten the Cowboys since Chris Klieman took over as head coach.
But Will Howard is a capable backup and Oklahoma State has been known to struggle against the run on defense. K-State is also playing at home. Perhaps that will be the difference.
Missouri (+3.5) at South Carolina
The Tigers have quietly improved over the course of the season, as they covered the spread in their first three SEC games and then beat Vanderbilt last week at home.
Problem is, South Carolina has been even hotter. The Gamecocks have won four straight, including consecutive SEC games against Kentucky and Texas A&M.
Neither of these teams scores at a high clip, so that could give Missouri a shot at covering this number in a low-scoring game.
Around the Big 12
TCU (-7) at West Virginia: If the Horned Frogs can knock yet another starting quarterback out of this game they will win with ease. If not, the Mountaineers are capable of covering this number at home. Over 69 points could be a fun bet here. Neither team plays much defense.
Baylor (+2.5) at Texas Tech: The Red Raiders are undefeated at home this season, including a 48-10 blowout over West Virginia last week. Betting on Texas Tech in Lubbock and betting against them everywhere else has been a winning formula. But Baylor coach Dave Aranda and Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire know everything about each other. That could make this game an interesting chess match. If the offenses get going, it won’t be hard for the to clear the over of 63.
Best Bets
My hot streak ran out last week. Hawaii, of all teams, was my only winning bet. But my record is still above .500 on the season, and 17-13 over the past six weeks. Time to heat back up!
Oklahoma (-1.5) at Iowa State: This should be a fun game that features contrasting styles. The Sooners have one of the best offenses in the country, averaging 42.6 points per game when starting quarterback Dillon Gabriel is healthy. The Cyclones are capable of turning every game they play into a rock fight with a defense that is allowing 19 points per game. Both teams are also coming off an open week. I think that helps Oklahoma here. The Sooners seemed to figure some things out when they dropped 52 points on Kansas. And their defense could drastically improve now that Brent Venables had time to fix a few issues. Iowa State doesn’t seem to have answers for its struggling offense. And Matt Campbell’s record is abysmal in games that are expected to be close. My advice is to ignore the spread and bet the Sooners at -110 on the money line. Pick: Oklahoma.
Colorado State (over/under 43) at Boise State: You probably have no interest in watching this game. It has the potential to be one of the ugliest games of the entire season. And that is exactly why I will be betting on it. Both of these teams are snails on offense. The Broncos have only been involved in three games that hit the over this season. The Rams have gone under in all seven of their games, averaging just 15.6 points in Mountain West play. I expect Boise State to do all the scoring here, and I don’t see it winning by more than 40. As an added bonus, one college football statistician has predicted this total as low as 22. Pick: Under.
Southern California (-15) at Arizona: Here is a list of teams that Arizona has allowed to score 49 points in games this season: California, Oregon, Washington. The Wildcats also surrendered 39 points against Mississippi State and have given up at least 20 points in seven of their games. Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams could easily eclipse 50 coming off an open week here. Pick: USC.
Stanford (+16.5) at UCLA: I’m not sure what prompted it, but the Cardinal have been playing good football lately. They are coming off low-scoring wins over Arizona State and Notre Dame. They also had Oregon State beat until they gave up a Hail Mary in the closing seconds. But they still covered the spread in that game! It would be great if this spread jumped beyond 17. But I still like it at this number. I think Stanford can make this game ugly and keep the score close. UCLA should win, just not by three scores. Pick: Stanford.
Cincinnati (-1) at UCF: The wrong future Big 12 team is favored in this game. The Bearcats haven’t covered a spread since September and head coach Luke Fickell is only 1-8 against the spread when his team is ranked and playing on the road against an unranked opponent, per The Action Network. Cincinnati has won six straight, but none of those games came against strong competition. Central Florida would normally be favored in this matchup, but the market over reacted to its 34-13 loss at East Carolina last week. The Knights turned the ball over four times in that game. As long as that doesn’t happen again this week, expect a big bounce back at the Bounce House. Pick: UCF.
Last week: 1-4. Season record ATS: 20-19-1.
Other lines worth considering
Wyoming (-11) at Hawaii: Betting on the Rainbow Warriors worked out for us last week, and they play much better at home.
Middle Tennessee State (+1.5) at UTEP: The Miners have won and covered the spread in their past three home games.
Kentucky (+12.5) at Tennessee: It’s not hard to see the Wildcats staying within 10 points coming off an open week.
East Carolina (+3.5) at BYU: Several respected computer projections have the Pirates as the favorites here.
Arizona State (-13.5) at Colorado: The Buffaloes shockingly beat California two weeks ago. They went back to playing awful football during a 42-9 loss at Oregon State.