What the betting line says about the Kansas City Chiefs-SF 49ers game. And some tips
The 49ers are one of the more perplexing teams in football through six weeks, and much of that is personnel-related. Which I’ll get to.
But the real point, as we dive into a bit of an analysis of the betting line for Sunday’s game, is the 49ers were already a difficult team to predict because of their injury list.
And then they pulled the league’s biggest in-season trade.
San Francisco acquired running back Christian McCaffrey from the Panthers late Thursday, and as of this writing less than 12 hours later, it’s unclear what his role will be when the Chiefs visit town three days after the trade.
McCaffrey is the kind of guy who tends to have an effect on a game — though maybe not quite the effect to make him worth a second-, third-, fourth- and fifth-round pick, but I’m getting off track.
The Chiefs are favored 2 points Sunday in Santa Clara, California, and the pick on that line would almost surely be swayed by the health of Joey Bosa, Trent Williams, Mike McGlinchey and Charvarius Ward, among others.
It’s not simply the length of the San Francisco injury report that keeps us a bit in the dark — it’s the quality of talent placed on it. It did lead to this great quip from Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy on Thursday: “Here’s one thing that I’ve always learned: It doesn’t make a difference who shows up on that injury report — all those guys seem to get healthy for the Chiefs.”
The 49ers have a stout defensive line — which is becoming a theme in Chiefs games this year — but it’s been pedestrian without Bosa over the past couple of weeks.
Their reliance has shifted to the secondary, which is rated as the second-best in the league, per PFF. But that’s included Ward, and it looks like it will be difficult for Ward, the former Chiefs cornerback, to get on the field Sunday.
See, it’s a perplexing one.
In the end, I’m most swayed by two things. For starters, the 49ers haven’t been a particularly good running or passing team. And while McCaffrey might talk himself into the lineup Sunday, there’s simply not enough time to get completely up to speed.
Second, Patrick Mahomes is 11-3 coming off a loss. He tends not to let these things linger.
All in all, there’s an uncomfortable feeling picking this one without a full deck of information — which, on the bright side, lines up an excuse.
The line: Chiefs - 2
The pick: Chiefs 23, 49ers 20
Last week’s pick: Bills -2 1/2
My record against the spread this year: 4-2
PLUS THREE
1. Under 48.5 total points
It’s not that this is an insanely high number, because it’s pretty reasonable, but there’s a trend developing in the NFL with over/unders this year— only five teams in the entire league have hit the over more often than the under.
The 49ers, with the top-ranked defense in the league, are one of the leaders of that trend. Only one of their six games has reached the over — heck, they sneaked under 38.5 and 39.5-point lines this season.
The Chiefs do have the highest-scoring offense in the league, but believe it or not, half of their games have still stayed beneath the under total.
One more stat here: 12 of the last 14 games involving the 49ers have hit the under, dating back to last year, per BetMGM.
2. Largest lead of the game (either team), under 14.5 points
Indicated by the final score prediction above, I expect the game will be close. And that’s not just at the final whistle.
The reasoning here is simple: Each of these teams plays too well on one side of the ball to get blown out.
3. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, under 9.5 carries
It would be more exciting to throw in completely fresh picks every week, but they’re just making it so tempting to pluck this one week after week. Besides, the point of the bets is to cash them, right? (Says the guy who is .500 on these props.)
Edwards-Helaire has reached double-digit carries only once in six weeks, and the 49ers have the league’s best rushing defense in terms of yards allowed per carry (3.3). If there’s a week Edwards-Helaire is going to break out, as he did in Week 3 in Tampa, this just isn’t the best fit for it.
Prop bet record last week: 1-2
Prop bet record this season: 9-9
This story was originally published October 21, 2022 at 8:27 AM with the headline "What the betting line says about the Kansas City Chiefs-SF 49ers game. And some tips."