Best College Football Bets Week 7: KU at Oklahoma, SEC and picks for all Big 12 games
This is a special weekend for college football.
For only the second time in the history of the sport, we get to watch three games that involve teams with records of 5-0 or better.
What a slate it’s going to be. No. 10 Penn State and No. 5 Michigan will get things started at 11 a.m. on FOX, followed by No. 3 Alabama at No. 9 Tennessee on CBS and No. 8 Oklahoma State at No. 13 TCU on ABC. Both of those games will start at 2:30 p.m.
How should you bet on those marquee games?
Here are some thoughts on them, and much more, from Week 7 of the college football season:
Kansas (+9.5) at Oklahoma
There is some mystery involved in this game, given that KU quarterback Jalon Daniels is doubtful to play and OU quarterback Dillon Gabriel appears to be, at best, on the right side of questionable. But Jason Bean looked great taking over for Daniels last week, as he threw for 262 yards and four touchdowns in a narrow loss against TCU. The Sooners didn’t score a single point without Gabriel against Texas.
If Gabriel is able to play, the over (63 points) might be a good play here. There might not be a ton of defense on Saturday, though the Jayhawks have had their moments on that side of the ball lately.
The betting line feels off. The Sooners don’t deserve to be favored against any Big 12 team at the moment, let alone the nation’s 19th-ranked squad. Oklahoma is 2-4 against the spread this season, and its two covers came against UTEP and Nebraska. The Jayhawks are 8-0-1 against the closing spread in their past nine games dating back to last season. The Sooners have been downright terrible in their last two games, losing to TCU and Texas by a combined score of 104-24 while surrendering 1,253 yards of total offense. They might be the worst team in the conference.
You can read my official pick in the Best Bets section below.
Thursday Big 12 game
Baylor heads to West Virginia for a midweek game on Thursday that could be an entertaining matchup. The Bears need a win to stay in the Big 12 championship picture. The Mountaineers need a win to boost Neal Brown’s job security and to stay within reach of bowl eligibility.
The Bears are favored by 3.5 points. I like the Bears to win and cover, but just barely. Dave Aranda’s team usually takes care of business in games like this. Both teams are 3-2 against the spread this season.
Penn State (+7) at Michigan
The easiest way to bet this game may be to wait until Saturday morning to see if the line moves one way or the other. Penn State becomes much more appealing at +7.5. So does Michigan at -6.5.
It’s hard to bet against Michigan at home, but the Wolverines failed to cover in the Big House earlier this season against Hawaii and Maryland. They really haven’t been tested yet, as the first half of their schedule has been pillow soft.
Penn State hasn’t played the most difficult schedule either, but it is 2-0 on the road with wins against Purdue and Auburn.
Best Bets
Kansas (+9.5) at Oklahoma: This line almost feels too good to be true, which can be a sign that oddsmakers are trying to lure bettors into a trap. I’m willing to take the risk. Give me the Jayhawks and the points. Pick: Kansas.
Alabama (-7.5) at Tennessee: The Crimson Tide are getting too much love in this matchup, especially with Bryce Young dealing with an injury to his throwing shoulder. Alabama is coming off a less-than-impressive victory over Texas A&M and is only 1-1 against the spread on the road this season. Tennessee would be a perfect 5-0 against the spread this year if not for allowing a backdoor cover at home against Florida. The Volunteers are averaging 46.8 points per game. They want nothing more than to beat Alabama. I like their chances to pull off an upset, and really like their chances to stay within one score. Pick: Tennessee.
Oklahoma State (+4) at TCU: I am only confident about one thing happening when the Big 12’s two remaining undefeated teams clash in Fort Worth on Saturday. They are going to score points. Lots of points. The over/under total is set at 68.5. These teams should fly past that number. The Horned Frogs have only played in one game all season that didn’t top that total, and that came against hapless Colorado. The Cowboys have played in three games that exceeded that number. Both teams like to go fast. This should be a shootout. Pick: Over 68.5.
Mississippi State (-4.5) at Kentucky: The Bulldogs had one bad showing this season against LSU. They have been perfect otherwise and sport a 4-1-1 record against the spread. Mike Leach’s team is quietly playing like one of the best teams in the country. I like Mississippi State to keep its momentum going against Kentucky, even if quarterback Will Levis is cleared to play. The Wildcats just haven’t looked all that good this season, especially while losing their past two games. Pick: Mississippi State.
Iowa State (+17.5) at Texas: The Cyclones and the Longhorns are teams heading in opposite directions. Iowa State might finish last in the Big 12 standings this season. Texas might win the conference. Still, oddsmakers are giving the Horns too much credit for throttling a hapless OU team last week. Iowa State has lost its last three games by a combined total of 11 points. It also has the best defense in the league. And Matt Campbell has a history of giving Texas fits. The Cyclones have won three straight in this series and have covered this number in five straight. I don’t think Iowa State will score enough points to win, but it will be hard for the Longhorns to pull ahead comfortably. Every game turns into a rock fight when Iowa State is involved. There is also a let-down factor here for the Longhorns coming off the Red River Showdown and Oklahoma State up next on the schedule. Pick: Iowa State.
Last week: 3-2. Season record ATS: 16-13-1.
This story was originally published October 12, 2022 at 1:23 PM.