What’s next for Big 12 football if Big Ten cancels its football games in the fall?
If the Big Ten moves forward as expected with plans to cancel all of its football games this fall in favor of a spring season in 2021, every other power conference in the country will have a difficult decision to make.
Do they follow suit and cancel fall sports through the remainder of the year? Or do they forge ahead and play on their own as originally scheduled?
The Big 12 schools’ presidents may be forced to vote on those topics when they are scheduled to meet virtually as a group and hear from medical experts Tuesday. What they will decide, for now, is unclear. But their decision could leave a lasting mark on college football this season and beyond.
Here’s what we know for now: Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby told multiple media outlets Sunday that the conference has not made a final decision for the upcoming season and that it won’t be influenced by outside factors. The Big 12 also plans to unveil its new schedule format at some point this week, and several of its teams are proceeding with preseason camp as if they intend to play in September.
“I’ve literally been on dozens of calls with doctors and scientists, and no one has told us to stop,” Bowlsby told the Des Moines Register. “We’ll keep trying to move ahead, although it would be less than forthright to sit here and not add that the last 30 days has not gone the way we like. That has to be factored into the decision process. We’ve probably not made progress, but we’ve had no one tell us to shut it down.”
But plans could change in a hurry.
“These are unprecedented times,” K-State athletic director Gene Taylor tweeted Monday, “with extreme fluidity.”
If the Big Ten cancels fall sports, that decision could serve as a domino for the rest of college football. Will other conferences tumble with the Big Ten and make the same choice, or will they stand firm and play games minus one of their strongest peers?
It is believed that the Pac-12 will move in concert with its Rose Bowl partner, the Big Ten, no matter what it decides. But the other three power conferences might have their own plans.
Could the ACC, Big 12 and SEC move forward on their own?
The last time power conferences opted to cancel major events, they all came to the same conclusion. The day was March 12 and leagues across the country were holding basketball tournaments to decide which of their teams would receive an automatic berth into the NCAA Tournament.
But those events were all canceled as fears grew over the coronavirus pandemic. No conference decided to play on. Within a few hours, the NCAA Tournament and spring sports were also off the table.
Perhaps conferences would follow each other the same way this time around. Or maybe not. That was basketball. This is football, the biggest and most profitable sport for the vast majority of athletic departments. The sport is practically a religion in Southern states.
Good luck telling the SEC it can’t play games simply because the Big Ten decided against it.
“We have never had a (football) season in a COVID-19 environment. Can we play? I don’t know. We haven’t stopped trying,” SEC commissioner Greg Sankey wrote on Twitter on Monday. “We support, educate and care for student-athletes every day, and will continue to do so every day.”
There is nothing stopping certain conferences from playing football in the fall while other conferences remain on the sidelines.
The ACC (Clemson) and SEC (Alabama, Georgia, LSU) are the only conferences that have sent teams to the national championship game over the past five years, so it would be hard for anyone to demand an asterisk be placed on the final results if those conferences play on.
It would make things easier than usual for the Big 12 to qualify for the playoff without the Big Ten and Pac-12 competing for spots in the final four. But it would also be a risky move. If one conference thinks it’s too dangerous to play football, can the others justify moving forward?
At this moment, it feels like the Big Ten and Pac-12 are on one end of the spectrum while the ACC and SEC are on the other. The Big 12 is in the middle, with its athletic directors divided on how to proceed.
What it comes down to is a question of safety.
The desire is there. Players and coaches across the country, including within the Big Ten, have taken to social media to express those leanings during the past 24 hours. Nebraska coach Scott Frost said Monday that the Huskers might explore an independent-style schedule if Big Ten football is canceled.
But there are legitimate concerns about the long-term effects of the coronavirus on the human body. Teams are testing like crazy and implementing safety protocols to keep their football players safe. Will that be enough?
The Big Ten is close to saying “no.” The Big 12 will have to come up with its own answer soon.
This story was originally published August 10, 2020 at 2:15 PM.