That was a quick end to the GOP primary. November can’t get here fast enough

Results from Johnson County’s provisional ballots Tuesday afternoon told Gov. Jeff Colyer all he needed to know about his chances of catching Secretary of State Kris Kobach in the week-old Republican primary for Kansas governor.

Colyer won the county, the state’s largest, but he actually lost 25 votes to Kobach in provisional ballots and Kobach’s statewide lead jumped to more than 300 votes. Provisional ballots from other counties likely wouldn’t make up that deficit, and while a recount was possible, it likely wouldn’t have created a new result.

So the closest primary in Kansas gubernatorial history is just that: history. Kobach is the Republican nominee can begin a full, 83-day campaign against Democratic nominee Laura Kelly and likely independent candidate Greg Orman.

Colyer could have taken his primary fight into late August and possibly September. The state’s biggest counties disagreed on how to handle some provisional ballots, and a recount was an option. But he ends his pursuit and puts Kobach and Republicans in a much stronger, more united frame of mind heading into the fall.

Questions as Kansas begins to look ahead:

1. Will President Trump’s endorsement be as meaningful in the general?

Kobach gave the president much credit Tuesday evening, pointing out Colyer received more advance votes but Kobach cleaned up on election day, a day after Trump tweeted his support of Kobach.

Trump has had unquestioned success with his GOP candidates in primaries, where president-endorsed picks have won 23 of 25 races (including Kobach). But Trump’s backing hasn’t meant as much in general elections, where he is 4-3 with endorsed candidates.

In Kansas, Kobach and Trump are so closely aligned that a general-election endorsement may not mean as much. Kobach will easily secure conservatives, but it’s the moderate Republicans — some who are #NeverKobach — who will be the target of all three campaigns.

Given Republicans’ far greater numbers in Kansas, if one candidate can’t secure the bulk of moderate votes, Kobach figures to have the edge.

2. Kelly has been preaching “Beat Kris Kobach” for months.

During primary debates, Kelly usually delivered the most important line for Democrats: “Beat Kris Kobach.” Her message for the general election is clear, that Kansas can’t survive an administration that would resemble (as Dems believe) former Gov. Sam Brownback’s failed tax policies plus Kobach’s divisive anti-immigration and voter fraud stances.

Kelly dominated the Democratic primary with 52 percent of the vote, 14 percentage points more than her two closest rivals combined. She figures to have strong party support on Nov. 6, plus the #NeverKobach votes. But the moderates will have the final say, as will …

3. Greg Orman and his red and blue energy drinks.

Orman is already hitting airwaves and social media hard with his message that the two-party system isn’t working in Kansas and it’s time to try something new.

Democrats are wondering if this is the time to try something new, or maybe in four years. They probably think he’s a vote stealer.

They may be right. Conventional wisdom says Orman will receive support from a segment of voters who are indeed tired of both parties.

But it’s the chunk of voters who can’t see themselves touching the screen for Kobach, and giving Orman a try, that scare Democrats. Much like Colyer’s primary message that a GOP vote for Jim Barnett was a vote for Kobach, Democrats will say a vote for Orman is also a vote for Kobach — and one that won’t help Kelly.

4. Voter turnout will be on the high side.

A prime-time gubernatorial race will be supplemented by competitive U.S. House races in three of the four districts — including in Kansas’ four largest counties.

Less than 12 weeks to go, and we have the lineup cards for November. An intriguing fall awaits.

This story was originally published August 14, 2018 at 8:51 PM with the headline "That was a quick end to the GOP primary. November can’t get here fast enough."