Charles Krauthammer: Rubio, Bush, Walker in top tier of candidates

With Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, announcing and others soon to follow, it’s time to start handicapping the horses and making enemies.

No point in wasting time on the Democratic field. There is none. The only thing that can stop Hillary Clinton is an act of God, and he seems otherwise occupied.

On to the GOP.

First tier:

▪  Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla. Trails badly in current polls, ranking seventh at 5 percent, but high upside potential.

Assets: Foreign policy looms uncharacteristically large in the current cycle, and Rubio is the most knowledgeable and fluent current contender. The son of Cuban immigrants, he can break into flawless Spanish (so can Jeb Bush) and speak passionately about the American story in a party that lost the Hispanic vote by 44 percentage points in 2012.

Liabilities (in the primaries): His Gang of Eight immigration apostasy, though his current enforcement-first position has wide appeal. Second, after Barack Obama, will voters want another first-term senator with no executive experience?

Odds: 3-1.

▪  Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. The consensus favorite (though I remain a bit skeptical). Solid, soft-spoken, serious, with executive experience and significant achievements as governor. What he lacks in passion he makes up for in substance. And he has shown backbone in sticking to his semi-heretical positions on immigration and Common Core.

Obvious liability: his name. True, it helps him raise tens of millions of dollars, but it saddles him with legacy and dynastic issues that negate the inherent GOP advantage of running a new-versus-old, not-again campaign against Clinton.

Odds: 7-2.

▪  Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. A fine record of conservative achievement. Has shown guts and leadership in taking on labor unions and winning three elections against highly energized Democrats.

Good, rousing speech in Iowa but has stumbled since, flubbing routine questions on evolution and patriotism, then appearing to compare the Islamic State to Wisconsin demonstrators. Rookie mistakes, easily forgotten – if he learns from them.

Odds: 4-1.

Second tier:

▪  New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Some politicians have their one moment. Christie might have missed his in 2012 when his fearless in-your-face persona was refreshingly new. Over time, however, in-your-face can wear badly. That plus Bridgegate cost him traction and dropped him out of the first tier. 12-1.

▪  Ted Cruz. Grand, florid campaign launch with matching rhetoric. Straightforward base-oriented campaign. Has developed a solid following. Could break out, especially in debate. 15-1.

▪  Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. Great name recognition, affable, popular. But highly identified with social-cultural issues – how far can that carry him beyond Iowa and evangelicals? 15-1.

▪  Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky. Events have conspired against him. Obama’s setbacks and humiliations abroad have created a national mood less conducive to Paul’s noninterventionism. Bottom line: high floor of devoted libertarians; low ceiling in today’s climate. 30-1.

Longer shots:

▪  Carly Fiorina. Can the former Hewlett-Packard CEO do a Huckabee 2008 and, through debates, vault to the first tier? Unlikely. 50-1.

▪  Ben Carson. Polling high, but is a novice making cringe-worthy gaffes, for example, on the origins of Islam and on gay choice. Truly good man, brilliant doctor, great patriot. But not ready for the big leagues. Chance of winning? Zero.

Others:

▪  Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and Ohio Gov. John Kasich – still below radar.

This story was originally published March 27, 2015 at 5:11 PM with the headline "Charles Krauthammer: Rubio, Bush, Walker in top tier of candidates."