Trump, Brownback could impact races

Like a supernova, Donald Trump has illuminated the electoral universe in 2016. Win or lose, he is likely to explode, showering his light and heat upon thousands of other races across the country, from county commissioner to U.S. senator.

Meanwhile, elections in Kansas will constitute, in large part, a referendum on Gov. Sam Brownback’s record of taxation, declining revenues and threats to myriad programs throughout the state.

In short, Kansas Republican voters are faced with a Trump-Brownback ticket.

I recently chatted up a long-time Republican Party official, as we compared notes on the election. He was apoplectic about Trump, seeing him as bombastic, narcissistic and utterly unqualified. At the same time, he said he could not vote for Hillary Clinton, arguing that she was congenitally dishonest. Still, he noted, she is sane, and could be trusted far more than Trump.

At the state level, Brownback stands as the governor with the lowest approval rating in the nation.

So every GOP state legislative candidate must contend with both Trump and his penchant for outrageous statements and the least popular governor in modern Kansas history.

It’s highly unlikely that Trump will lose Kansas, nor that any congressional incumbent will be defeated, despite some wishful thinking that Rep. Kevin Yoder, R-Overland Park, is in trouble. More significant, however, is how a lack of enthusiasm for Trump and the disdain of Brownback will affect the hotly contested state legislative and judicial retention races.

Neither presidential candidate prevailed in the Kansas caucuses, where Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders won convincing victories, so there has been little to build on. In deep-red Kansas, however, it’s the GOP enthusiasm that matters most for down-ballot races.

Although some political science research suggests that voters will “balance” their votes, with Trump defectors thus returning to the GOP fold down ballot, the Brownback factor may then kick in.

In all likelihood, turnout will take a beating this fall, given the nature of the presidential contest. And most far-right Republicans will remain stalwart at the polls, although their enthusiasm is in doubt.

It may well be that those Kansas Republicans who are willing to reject Trump and to react to the damaging policies of the Brownback administration will help diminish Trump’s margin and reject the governor’s legislative allies.

Trump-Brownback. It is not quite the ticket that Brownback had hoped for when he first ran for governor in 2010, but one that might just push Kansas a few more steps on the road back to thoughtful, moderate-conservative government.

This story was originally published September 24, 2016 at 5:04 AM with the headline "Trump, Brownback could impact races."