How well is state economy performing?
Gov. Sam Brownback complained recently that the media don’t report how well his tax policies are performing, that they “don’t cover the results.”
So what would be a fair, objective way to gauge the results of those policies? How about the benchmarks that Brownback himself established?
In 2012, the Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors, which Brownback leads, agreed on key indicators to monitor the state’s economy.
“These economic metrics will allow us to determine the state’s relative economic position as it relates to the six-state region and the nation, and to monitor in a timely manner if our policies and initiatives are having the desired economic effect,” Brownback said at the time.
In other words, these should be the measures to judge the success or failure of his policies.
So how is Kansas doing on those measures? Not that well.
The council’s November “Indicators of the Kansas Economy” report showed Kansas trailing the region and nation in nearly every measure. This includes growth in population, gross state product, personal income, building permits, nonfarm employment, private-sector employment, private industry wage level, and private business establishment.
For example, at the time of the report, Kansas’ nonfarm employment was up 0.8 percent from the previous 12 months, compared with 1.3 percent growth for the region and 1.9 percent for the nation. (Kansas finished the year with 0.5 percent job growth, the ninth worst rate in the nation.)
Private-sector job growth was better, up 1.2 percent per the report, but it still trailed the regional average (1.4 percent) and nation (2.2 percent).
Another measure: Kansas had a 29.7 percent drop in building permits, compared with a 9.4 percent drop for the region and 7.2 percent growth for the nation.
There were a few bright spots. Kansas had a lower unemployment rate than the regional and national averages (though this has been the case since 2008). It also had higher per capita income than the region. Also, its manufacturing sector lost a smaller percentage of jobs from the previous year than the regional average (though the nation added manufacturing jobs last year).
Kansas’ economy is improving, as Brownback notes. But as his indicators show, the economies of most other states in the region and nation are improving faster – and they didn’t pass major income tax cuts that left their states with large budget shortfalls.
Brownback and his economic advisers decided in 2012 that the IKE report would be issued quarterly and serve “as the leading document” for evaluating economic progress. After publishing nine consecutive reports online, the council stopped posting them on its website after the March 2014 report – about the same time Brownback was facing a difficult re-election campaign.
Apparently those aren’t the results Brownback wants covered.
This story was originally published February 6, 2016 at 6:06 PM with the headline "How well is state economy performing?."