Focus on the policy impact of politics, not the horse race
The political die has been cast. The counting is done and we know Kelly v. Kobach v. Orman will define Kansas politics this fall. There are very real policy implications for these races. Too often, these are just referenced as part of a stump speech, some attempt to “re-brand” a candidate, or offered as a shibboleth to some constituency.
Yet, actual policy making is, theoretically, why these people run in the first place. The last player, and the least mentioned, in this political season is a policy one – a $3.7 billion revenue shortfall.
This is the impact that potentially faces Kansas taxpayers over the next four years if our elected leaders actually follow state statute.
It assumes things like honoring pension promises, doing away with fund transfers and sweeps, meeting recent Court mandates on education spending and balancing the state’s books with a fiscal cushion.
About $624 million of the tax increase is already in place. Federal tax reform, passed in 2017, made a variety of changes to federal taxes (e.g., capping some itemized deductions) in which taxes for most Americans were lowered. Unfortunately, if many states – Kansas among them – do not act then state taxes will effectively increase based on how the different tax systems interact. The Kansas Senate voted to prevent this backdoor state income tax hike, but too many House members voted to let your taxes increase.
This $3.7 billion debate has nothing to do with Gov. Brownback and his tax cuts. It has to do with what the Kansas economy looks like in the future. Is this a state with enough economic opportunity to allow our children to stay and raise a family? Or, will another jump in the tax burden all but force them to move elsewhere?
This is why taxes matter. It is not about the abstract of rates or burden or the size of government. Taxes represent how much of the money you earn will be available to provide for your family. They are about individual opportunity for each and every Kansan. States and nations with lower taxes put the opportunity for earned success closer to the hands of individuals through more economic growth.
Many candidates may say one thing on the stump but have entirely different plans when they get to Topeka. Many happily voted for the largest tax increase in state history in 2017. Many of those same folks also bemoaned accounting gimmicks but happily set spending records while employing the exact same transfers, sweeps, and delaying maneuvers they once lamented.
Do not let the reality show side of politics distract you from demanding answers to honest questions. Including the $3.7 billion question some want to ignore.
James Franko is vice president and policy director at Kansas Policy Institute.