Debate barely mentioned debt

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump covered a lot of issues – and insults – during their presidential debate last week. But they spent almost no time on perhaps the biggest economic challenge facing this country – curbing our rising national debt.

That’s likely because the policies promoted by both candidates would add to the debt – especially Trump, whose tax-cut plan mirrors Gov. Sam Brownback’s failed experiment.

The national debt soared at the end of the George W. Bush administration and during the early years of the Obama administration, as the nation dealt with the global financial crisis. In recent years, the annual budget deficits have dropped significantly but still added to the debt, which now tops $19.5 trillion.

The Congressional Budget Office projects that, under current law, annual deficits will start increasing again and reach $1.2 trillion (4.6 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product) in 2026. Deficits have averaged 2.8 percent of GDP over the past 50 years, according to the Concord Coalition, a bipartisan budget watchdog group.

Debt held by the public (as opposed to money the government owes to the Social Security Trust Fund) is projected to grow from 77 percent of GDP this year (the highest level since 1950) to 86 percent in 2026, according to Concord Coalition. The average for the past 50 years is 39 percent of GDP.

And the debt is projected to keep mounting, reaching 141 percent of GDP 30 years from now. That would be significantly higher than the record debt level of 106 percent of GDP set at the end of World War II.

Not only would the policies of Clinton and Trump not reduce this expected increase, they would make it worse.

Clinton’s proposals are less irresponsible. All total, her tax and spending plans are projected to increase the national debt by about $200 billion over 10 years, according to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

In contrast, Trump’s tax cuts and other budget plans are projected to increase the debt by $5.3 trillion over 10 years, according to CRFB.

Trump hopes to avoid huge deficits by dramatically increasing economic growth. But Kansans have seen how tax cuts don’t always provide the “shot of adrenaline” that their backers promise.

The biggest drivers of the national debt, especially in coming years, are health care, Social Security and interest on the debt. But Clinton and Trump aren’t talking much about entitlement reform, either.

Clinton says she would preserve Social Security by increasing the wage cap on payroll taxes, but she also wants to expand benefits for widows and family caregivers. Trump promised not to cut benefits.

Of course, the next Congress will matter as much as the next president, as it is Congress that passes the budget and decides whether to raise or cut taxes. But neither party has shown much capacity for reforming entitlements and curbing spending.

At some point the deficits and debt will reach a level that forces Congress and the president to act. But the longer they wait, the harder it will be to climb out of the hole.

This story was originally published October 2, 2016 at 5:06 AM with the headline "Debate barely mentioned debt."