How warm will Christmas Day be? Here’s one Wichita meteorologist’s holiday forecast
The Wichita area and parts of Kansas will be closer to setting heat records than having a white Christmas, according to National Weather Service meteorologist Mick McGuire.
“As far as snow goes, if you’re dreaming of a white Christmas, stop,” he said, raising his voice to emphasize the word stop. “It looks mild and warm actually, in continuation with the dry weather we have been dealing with.”
Colorado, northern Nebraska or the Dakotas would be the closest place for Kansans to see a white Christmas, Wichita meteorologists said.
McGuire said the Wichita area has a forecast high in the low 70s on Christmas Eve and mid-60s for the big day. The record highs are 83 degrees in 1955 and 68 degrees in 2019. Normal highs this time of year are in the low 40s.
It’s going to feel more like the Gulf Coast, he said.
Wichita already set record heat days on Dec. 2, 9 and 15; Chanute and Russell both set all-time highs for the month on Dec. 2 with a staggering 79 degrees.
December temperatures in Wichita are on track to be the second-hottest on record.
The hottest December was in 1889, a year after records started, when the average temperature was 46.4 degrees. That number averages each day’s high and low temperatures. Through Monday, Wichita was sitting at 44.3 degrees for the month.
McGuire said the average at the end of the month should be higher, but not enough to surpass the century-plus record. Third place is 42.4 degrees in 1896.
Along with the warming trend, a dry streak continues.
“Right now it looks like there is no chance of snow for 2021,” he said, adding the only possibility for precipitation appears to be on the 28th and 29th.
Wichita’s 32-day drought — the longest since 2012 — was broken Dec. 15 when a massive storm moved across the Great Plains and Midwest. Along with power outages and wind damage, Wichita also saw .01 inches of rain that day.
It has been a very hot and very dry December, which McGuire attributes to La Nina — a weather phenomenon that causes warm water in the Pacific Ocean and often results in warm and dry winter weather in the Midwest.
What does the warm December say about the rest of the winter? Nothing conclusive.
The 14 warmest Decembers that Wichita has seen were followed by seven below-normal temperatures for January and February, three above normal and four that were near normal.
“The bottom line I think is that there isn’t a strong signal for the rest of the winter following a mild December,” he said. “It can pretty much land in any camp.”
February 2021 saw subzero temperatures that caused rolling power blackouts in Kansas and Missouri. The icy blast spanned from the Dakotas to Texas, causing record-high demands in utilities.
This story was originally published December 22, 2021 at 4:57 AM.